Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Section bump rates by gender

The USTA published 2023 year-end NTRP ratings about 24 hours ago, so that means it is time to start doing some analysis to see what we can learn.

To start, we'll look at bump rates overall and by section including by gender.  In all the charts below, it is showing the percentage of players bumped down (purple) or up (green).

First, the overall rates were:

• Stayed - 84.9%
• Bumped up - 9.5%
• Bumped down - 5.6%

This is very consistent with most years.  For the women:

• Stayed - 84.5%
• Bumped up - 9.7%
• Bumped down - 5.7%

And then men:

• Stayed - 85.6%
• Bumped up - 9.1%
• Bumped down - 5.3%

Not a lot of variation, the men are bumped up slightly less than the women, the bump down percentages are about the same.  The number that stayed the same level is down about 1% point from last year.

Here are the overall bump rates by section.

Last year was pretty consistent across sections, but this year is even more so.  Every section had more bumps up than down, between 8 and 10% bumps up and around 5% bumps down.  No section stands out having an abnormally high number of bumps up.  Generally speaking, there were no radical changes to adjustments.

Taking a look at the same stats but by gender, here are the women.

Nothing is remarkably different here.  NorCal does get over 11% bumps up, but still pretty consistent.

And the men.

Texas is the only one over 9% at around 11% and some other variation, but nothing more significant as far as radical changes between sections.

Stay tuned for more.

2023 year-end NTRP ratings have been published!

The annual post-Thanksgiving wait is over, the USTA has published year-end ratings for 2023!  As I write this, there are at least some players with 2023 year-end ratings on TennisLink.

To check what your rating is, you can go to TennisLink and look yourself up, or login and it should show your rating.  Make sure to check the date and that it is 12/31/2023 as that is what all new ratings should show.  If it still says a different date, yours may not be updated yet, or you didn't play enough matches to get a new rating.

Stay tuned for analysis of the ratings, but if anyone has any questions or wants to get a report to understand why they were/weren't bumped up or down, contact me!  And I'm always interested in situations where players successfully appeal, so if you do that and it is granted, drop me a note.

I'll be doing some of my usual analysis in the next few days, looking at general bump rates, then drilling in by section and by gender and level and section (those links to 2022's analysis) to see what we can tell about how the USTA handled things this time around.  So stay tuned!

2023 USTA League Nationals are over - When will ratings be published?

With the last weekend of USTA League Nationals complete, the wait now begins for 2023 year-end rating levels to be published.

The USTA generally publishes the year-end ratings the week after Thanksgiving and I'd speculated it would be November 29th or 30th, and yesterday the USTA sent out an e-mail saying it would be the 30th.

When on the 30th?  Traditionally they publish at midnight EST so that means staying up late to repeatedly hit refresh on your browser to see what your year-end level is.  Sometimes there are delays, but usually they hit the date and time.

As we approach the date, I'll try to post some analysis of the 2023 season and perhaps some general predictions about bump rates, and will definitely plan to do analysis after ratings are published.  And as always, I can do reports using my ratings at any time for players that want to see more detail about how my estimated ratings show their ratings progression to look and where they are likely to end up.  Contact me if interested.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 7 Recap - The last four new National Champs

Week 7, the last one, of USTA League Nationals is over, and four new champions were crowned.

The 18 & Over 7.0 had 2-1 wins in every match with SoCal beating NorCal in one semi and Texas beating Southern in the other, then Texas won the final.

The 18 & Over 9.0 had Mid-Atlantic beat Missouri Valley 3-0 and Southern beat NorCal 2-1 in the semis, then Mid-Atlantic won the final 2-1.

The 40 & Over 8.0 had two 2-1 wins in the semis for Florida over Middle States and SoCal over Eastern, and SoCal won the final 3-0.

The 40 & Over 6.0 also had 2-1 wins in the semis and a 3-0 win in the final with NorCal beating Middle States and Eastern beating Caribbean in the semis, and then NorCal won the final.

With that, Nationals is over, and now we wait for year-end ratings.  The USTA sent a note out saying 11/30 is the target date, so under two weeks to go!

Congratulations to all the champions.

What ties did we have for week 7 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

The last weekend of Nationals is on-going and the round-robin has wrapped up.  Here is how things have played out in the matches, all being play in Orlando at the National Campus and all Mixed.

The 18 & Over 9.0 found three teams unblemished at 4-0, Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, and Southern, and a 3-way tie at 3-1 for the last spot.  Midwest was a court back at 7-5 but Florida and Missouri Valley were tied at 8-4 as well as tied on sets lost (10), so it went to games lost and Missouri Valley lost fewer, 91 vs 94, and took the spot.  The teams advancing were numbers 1, 3, 4, and 6 in the simulation, so not too bad!

The 18 & Over 7.0 also had three 4-0 teams and a 3-way tie at 3-1, the unblemished teams being SoCal, Southern, and Texas.  NorCal was the best 3-1 team with a 9-3 court record, two better than Caribbean at 7-5 and New England at 6-6.  The teams advancing were numbers 1, 2, 3, and 7 in the simulation, again not bad!

The 40 & Over 6.0 still has a few matches to complete as I write this, but it appears the semi-finalists are decided with a 4-0 Eastern, 3-1 Caribbean and Middle States a court ahead of 3-1 Southern (8-4 vs 7-5), and then it appears NorCal, presently 3-0, has a spot wrapped up as they can do no worse than 3-1 / 8-4 which would be the fourth team at that record.  SoCal could also get to 3-1 / 8-4 if they sweep their last match, but they've already lost more sets than the others.  Again, the simulation had the advancing teams 1, 2, 3, and 7!

Last, the 40 & Over 8.0 had a nice tidy four 4-0 teams, Florida, SoCal, Eastern, and Middle States.  The simulation had these teams 2, 3, 4, and 6!

Congratulations to the semi-finalists!

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 9.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 9.0 mixed.

Teams: 15 (no Caribbean or Hawaii)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 5%

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 73% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.49 / 4.25

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.43 / 4.35

Favorites: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, NorCal
Contenders: Florida, Middle States, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, SoCal, Southern, Texas

Big group of contenders.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 7.0 mixed.

Teams: 16 (no Hawaii)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 16%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 82% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.77 / 3.44

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.64 / 3.51

Favorites: NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Middle States

Big ranges on team strengths and schedule strengths, leads to a pretty top-heavy set of favorites/contenders.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 6.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 6.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 18%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 87% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.26 / 2.97

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.17 / 3.02

Favorites: Eastern, Middle States, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Northern, Southern

This simulation is a bit top-heavy, just a total of six teams as favorites or contenders.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 8.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.06 / 3.85

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.01 / 3.85

Favorites: Caribbean, Florida, Middle States
Contenders: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, Missouri Valley, PNW, SoCal

Looks like a good group vying for the last spot.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 6 Recap - Only two new National Champs

Week 6 of USTA League Nationals is over, and only two new champions were crowned on the least busy weekend of Nationals this year.  Next weekend Nationals wrap up with four Mixed events in Orlando and San Diego.

You can see prior recaps here.

The 40 & Over 7.0 saw NorCal beat Mid-Atlantic in one semi 2-1, while Eastern beat Florida 3-0 in the other (but every match in a super tie-break!), before NorCal won the final 2-1, one of the won courts in a super tie-break.  Close!

The 9.0 level saw Texas beat New England 2-1 and PNW beat Midwest 3-0, and then PNW won the final 3-0, all in straight sets.

Congratulations to the new champs!

What ties did we have for week 6 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

This weekend's Nationals round-robin is complete so we can take a look at who has made the semis and what ties there were.  This weekend was a light one with just the 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed going on.

For the 7.0 level, there were four 2-0 teams after day one, but just two ended up 4-0, NorCal who didn't even drop a court, and Florida.  There were four 3-1 teams behind them and Eastern and Mid-Atlantic took the last two semi-finalist spots with better court records than Missouri Valley and Middle States.  Florida and NorCal were the top-2 picks to make the semis, and Mid-Atlantic and Eastern were 5th and 7th most likely, so the simulation did pretty well.

At 9.0, it was even more competitive with a bunch of 1-1 teams after day one, and the top-6 teams all being  3-1.  New England, PNW, and Midwest had the three best court records, and then Texas took the 4th spot being tied on court record at 8-4 but losing fewer sets than Southern.  All four of the semi-finalists were in the simulation's contenders.

Good luck the semis tomorrow!

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 7.0 Mixed

The sixth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 7.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 12%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 5

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.66 / 3.43

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.61 / 3.49

Favorites: Florida
Contenders: Eastern, Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Missouri Valley, NorCal, SoCal, Texas

On paper, very competitive with not that many expected to be undefeated and a large group of contenders and just one favorite.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 9.0 Mixed

The sixth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 9.0 mixed.

Teams: 16 (Caribbean missing)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 11%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.54 / 4.19

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.42 / 4.26

Favorites: Florida
Contenders: Hawaii, Intermountain, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, NorCal, PNW, SoCal

On paper, very competitive with not that many expected to be undefeated and a large group of contenders and just one favorite.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.