Saturday, October 12, 2019

Nationals week 2 has five sets of semi-finalists - What tie-breakers had to be used?

The second weekend of 2019 USTA League Nationals has made it to Saturday night, and that means we have semi-finalists all around.  With the random round-robin format, this means we likely had tie-breakers involved in deciding who advanced.

The 18 & Over 2.5 women had three teams finish 3-0 in Midwest, SoCal, and Southern.  There were five teams at 3-1, but Intermountain had the best record on courts and got the 4th spot.

The 18 & Over 3.0 women had the perfect scenario with four undefeated teams in Intermountain, Florida, NorCal, and Eastern.  A tie-breaker was used to determine 3rd vs 4th and NorCal got it having lost one fewer set than Eastern even though Eastern won two more sets than Northern.  My preferred use of sets won/lost differential would have put Eastern in 3rd rather than 4th.  Note that Eastern also won one more game than NorCal both having lost the same number.  I think the tie-breakers got it wrong here, but thankfully it was just for 3rd vs 4th.

My simulation only had Eastern as a semi-finalist candidate so some surprises here as often happens at 3.0.

The 18 & Over 3.0 men had two teams at 4-0 in Caribbean, and Eastern, Caribbean having a clearly better record on courts, 15-5 to 12-8.

There was a three way tie at 3-1 with Southern and Northern having better records on courts, 15-5 and 13-7 vs NorCal's 11-9.

Of the semi-finalists, my simulation had just Southern, 3.0 can be hard to predict.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women had four undefeated teams in PNW, SoCalSouthwest, and Intermountain.  That made things simple on who was in the semis, but the tie-breakers were involved in seeding.

PNW and SoCal were both 16-4 on courts but PNW lost two fewer sets so they took the #1 seed.  Southwest and Intermountain were 15-5 on courts but Southwest lost three fewer courts and took the #3 seed.

The simulation had Southwest and Intermountain in the semis.

The 40 & Over 4.0 men had two undefeated teams in Intermountain and Florida.  Intermountain had the best record by far 17-3 vs 12-8, and took the #1 seed.

The last two spots had five way tie at 3-1 with Midwest, Texas, Mid-Atlantic, Southwest, and Middle States.  The first two were tied on courts at 14-6, both lost 13 sets and so it went to games lost where Midwest lost one fewer game.  My suggested tie-breaker would have used sets won/lost differential where Midwest was two sets better so it would have been the same, but determined earlier in the sequence.  Two of the other teams were at 13-7 and one at 12-8.

The simulation had Intermountain and Texas and now they play in the semis.  And interestingly we have a rematch from Saturday night in the other semi.

Thankfully, no really huge tie-breakers and no situation where we got to the controversial and flawed games lost tie-breaker leaving a deserving team out of the semis, but it did arguably seed a team wrong.

Good luck to all the teams tomorrow!

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