Why do these simulations you ask? The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents. This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used. The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen. Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.
Nationals continue with week two this weekend, the 18 & Over 3.0 men's event being held in Oklahoma City. Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen.
As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.
First, with 17 teams playing a random four opponents, it will always be possible for there to be five (or more) undefeated teams. With the teams and schedule we have though, there is hardly a chance at all, just 0.02% chance, and in fact there is just a 1.3% chance of four teams being undefeated which is quite low.
In fact, there is only an 18% chance of three teams being undefeated, so we are likely in-line for some serious tie-break scenarios.
That leaves a very good chance, 93%, that there will be a tie for the last spot and it come down to tie-breakers. That tie is likely at a 3-1 record. The most likely size of the tie is four at 29%, but five and three way ties are likely at 23% each, and a 6-way tie is more likely than a 2-way tie at 12% vs 6%! The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 12-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability.
Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won. There is a 28% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 67% chance that is between two teams, a 28% chance it is between three teams, and a 5% chance it is between four teams. If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.
The schedule strengths do vary a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 2.99 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 3.08. So not as much disparity as some of the other events. Still, this leads to an easier road for some teams than others, in fact one of the stronger teams got the easiest schedule.
So who is most likely to come out in the top-4? Southern, Mid-Atlantic, Texas, and Southwest head the list, Southern the most likely to make it but not necessarily the favorite to win it all. Florida is very close, and Intermountain and Missouri Valley next with NorCal and SoCal in the hunt if things go their way.
For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare. I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team. I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together. Contact me if interested in any of these reports.
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