Saturday, January 17, 2015

Handicapping the 2015 Pacific Northwest Seattle area 18 & over USTA League 4.5 Men

The Pacific Northwest team from the Seattle area won the National Championship for the 18 & over 4.5 Men, and while there were massive bump ups to 5.0, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the teams and see who the favorite might be to repeat.

The ratings below are averages of the entire roster and are using the ratings I have each player at for the start of the year and do not reflect any matches played thus far.

This follows the handicapping I did of the 3.5 Men and 3.5 Women. And as stated for those, I'll preface this by saying I'm reporting an average rating for a team, and a lot goes into determining who wins a team match beyond that, e.g. who actually plays in a given match, any stacking that may take place, specific match-ups, new self-rated players, and players getting better or worse from the rating I've calculated over the course of the season, so this by no means should be construed as a guarantee of what will happen.

In sub-flight A it is pretty tight at the top with 4 teams with average ratings within 0.04.

NameAverage Rating
STC-Vincent4.22
AYTC-Dao4.21
PSC-Moldoveanu4.19
EDG-Le4.18
TCSP-Casazza4.14
BAIN-Blacker4.06
HBSQ-Reni4.02
AYTC-Nguyen4.01

So far, the three matches played have gone as expected with the higher average team winning the team match.

Sub-flight B doesn't look quite as deep, but has a similar profile.

NameAverage Rating
MI-Diereckx4.19
AYTC-Fong4.18
TCSP-Nguyen4.15
AYTC-Grayson4.12
NTC-Stanley4.1
GC-Gardner4.1
ETC-Roach4.02
CP-Avery4
So far, the three matches played have gone as expected with the higher average team winning the team match as well.

What do you think?