It is that time of year when USTA League players start wondering if they will be bumped up or not. Okay okay, quite a few have been wondering since much earlier in the year if the number of Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports I did starting in January is any indication.
I wrote yesterday about some general statistics on the percentage of bumps up/down by level and today did a report for a player that is on the verge of a double bump and it got me thinking. Double bumps do occur, I've seen a few in the past, but how rare are they? I did some analysis and here is what I found.
I looked at players that held a C/B rating at the end of 2012 and 2013 and then how many of them were bumped up or down and how far.
As I wrote yesterday, 87.7% of players stayed at the same level. Right around 4.1% were bumped down and 8.2% were bumped up. Those quick with math will see that totals 100% so were there any double bumps?
Yes, the above numbers are rounded, and indeed there were some double bump ups, but so few, 25, that it is kind of in the noise given how many players played USTA League in 2013. So yes it does happen but happened to just 0.01% of players last year.
What about the double bump down? I did not see any of those.
Do you know someone that was double bumped? If so, it looks like you are one of the few.
Yes. The woman from the Caribbean team who played line 2 singles in the finals of the USTA 3.0 40+ nationals.
ReplyDeleteThat's one! Only 24 more to go. Who has another one?
DeleteThere is a guy from Madison, WI who got self rated as 3.0 and got bumped to 4.0. He played only 8.0 mixed, and he played with 3.5 or 3.0 women partners. Definitely not a common situation.
ReplyDeleteI didn't look at self-rates that got a double bump as this just raises questions about the validity of their self-rate.
DeleteAt least three ladies from the PR team that played in the finals of USTA 3.0 18+ nationals.
ReplyDeleteTwo of those were self-rated so don't count against the 25 I found, but one was a 3.0B that went to a 4.0B. Only 23 more to go!
DeleteA woman from No Cal who played doubles at USTA 3.0 18+ nationals.
ReplyDeleteAnother winner. I'll be honest though, this one is a bit baffling as she had two losses at Districts and two losses at Nationals. I'm guessing she was surprised too as she went 1-6 playing 4.0 this year.
DeleteOnly 22 more to go!
Jakob Klaeson, a self rate in 5.0 in 2010, bumped straight to 6.0 after helping his team win it all. To be fair, before he ever self rated he played at Ole Miss, helping them to a Final Four D1 finish. So he kinda deserved it.
ReplyDeleteFour(!) players from the Men's 3.5 Norcal team that won Nationals got double bumped to 4.5.
ReplyDeleteIt's fascinating to see how rare the double bump actually is in USTA ratings, with only 0.01% of players experiencing it. This makes it a special achievement for those who get bumped up twice in a year!
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