2014 FIFA World Cup United States group of death scenarios/tie-breakers for advancing - Great chance to advance still

Please forgive the non Tennis or Ratings post, but with the World Cup going on and the U.S.A having a shot to advance to the knock out round, I thought it was time to take a look at the scenarios.

Of course, had Ronaldo not made the fantastic cross resulting in the tying header, we'd be through already.  In any case, here we go.

The winner of the U.S.A. vs Germany will advance as the group winner.  The loser may still advance depending on the result of Portugal vs Ghana (more below).

Should the U.S.A. vs Germany end in a draw, both will advance.  This naturally has people talking about the likelihood of a draw as it benefits both teams, and that may happen, but it is interesting to look at the other scenarios as we get tie-breakers.

If U.S.A./Germany does not end in a tie, we have the following scenarios:

• Ghana/Portugal ends in a draw - The U.S.A./Germany loser still advances having more points (4) than both teams (2).
• Ghana wins - Ghana would get to four points and would tie the other match loser.  The next tie-breaker is goal differential and so the scores would matter.
• If the U.S.A. loses a one goal game and Ghana wins a one goal game, they would be tied on goal differential and it would come down to goals scored.
• If the U.S.A. scores the same number of goals as Ghana in the final games, they win the tie-breaker.  If Ghana scores two more goals than the U.S.A. in the final games, they win the tie-breaker.  If Ghana scores one more goal than the U.S.A., they remain tied and it goes to a second set of tie-breaker rules where the U.S.A. wins over Ghana since they won head-to-head.
• If the U.S.A. loses and Ghana wins by more than one goal, Ghana would advance winning the goal differential tie-breaker.
• If the German's lose and Ghana wins:
• Ghana would have to win by five goals or more, or Germany lose by five goals or more, or some combination for Ghana to advance on the goal differential tie-breaker.
• If they end up tying on goal differential (Ghana win by four or Germany lose by four or some combination), then goals scored kicks in and Germany has an advantage if they score any goals as that increases the total Ghana needs to score.
• If they tie on goals scores, the next set of tie-breakers kicks in and this isn't so easy:
• The first is head-to-head and Germany/Ghana played to a draw so the points, goal differential, and total goals are both the same.
• The last tie-breaker in then drawing of lots.  Yes, it could come down to drawing of lots if Germany loses 2-0 and Ghana wins 3-0.
• Portugal wins - Portugal would also get to four points and tie the other match loser.  The rest is just as above, except Portugal is at a disadvantage on goal differential would would need to win very big to win that or tie that and force another tie-breaker.  And in this scenario, Germany would have the advantage should they lose over Ghana and it is Portugal/U.S.A. that could come down to a drawing of lots.

So, the U.S.A. still has a very good shot of advancing.  The only way they don't is if they lose to Germany and:

• Ghana beats Portugal by more than one goal, OR
• Ghana beats Portugal by one goal and the U.S.A. loses by more than one goal, OR
• Ghana beats Portugal by one goal and the U.S.A. loses by one goal but Ghana scores two more goals than the U.S.A. does in the final games.
• Portugal beats Ghana by five or more goals, OR
• Portugal beats Ghana by four goals and the U.S.A. loses by two goals (and similar other goal differential increments), OR
• Portugal beats Ghana by four goals and the U.S.A. loses by one goal 1-0 or 2-1, OR
• Portugal beats Ghana by four goals and the U.S.A. loses 3-2 and the U.S.A. loses the drawing of lots.

Clear enough?

Pacific Northwest USTA League Early Start Ratings Coming Soon for 2015 leagues!

The 40 & over local playoffs are taking place in Northwest Washington this weekend, and the 18 & over took place last weekend.  Once they are completed all the matches that are factored in to Early Start Ratings will have been played.

And while a couple other districts in the PNW section have their local playoffs in July, it looks like Early Start Ratings for 2015 leagues are scheduled to be published on July 3, 2014, before those playoffs are complete.

What are Early Start Ratings?  In some sections leagues that are part of the 2015 USTA year start in the Fall of 2014 for scheduling reasons.  In our section/district, the 55 & over and 18 & over Mixed leagues are early start leagues.  Since these are 2015 leagues, but the year-end ratings will not be published yet, Early Start Ratings are used to determine the level players must play at in these early start leagues.

As I understand it, early start ratings are basically a player's dynamic rating as of the cut-off date, thus they are a great way to check my ratings accuracy, so look for some stats on that.

But if you either can't wait, or after the list comes out if you want to know why you were/weren't on the early start list as a bump up or down, an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report is the best way to do so.

Good luck to the teams finishing up players tomorrow!

Update: See this updated post with new information.

Pacific Northwest USTA League NWW Local Playoffs 1st round results

I wrote yesterday about the men's 3.5 and 5.0+ Northwest Washington local playoffs, specifically looking at a couple teams from my club (Columbia Silver Lake).  Well, the first rounds were played and things played out to form from a team average standpoint unfortunately for my club members.

In the 3.5 match, the went down 4-1.  One singles match was a match tie-break loss in a minor upset, the opponent being rated a few hundredths lower.  The other singles match was also a match tie-break loss also with the opponent being rated a few hundredths lower.

In doubles, there was another match tie-break where my club members pulled the minor upset (a few hundredths lower again).  But the other two doubles weren't close, the opponents having clear ratings advantages and winning comfortably.

In the 5.0+ match, my club members went down 3-0.  In singles, the opponent had a clear ratings advantage and won easily.  In one doubles match, the opponent with a couple hundredth ratings advantage won in two tight sets.  And the other doubles match had the opponents at a slight ratings disadvantage pulling the upset.

Pacific Northwest USTA League Northwest Washington (Seattle) local playoffs this weekend for the 18 & over division

In the Pacific Northwest section of the USTA, we hold local playoffs in each district to determine which teams advance on to Sectionals.  This weekend, the 18 & over division is holding their local playoffs.

A couple teams from the club I play at made the playoffs so I thought I'd take a look at their chances.

A men's 3.5 team finished second in their sub-flight and they are facing the first place team from the other sub-flight.  Their top-8 average rating is 3.38 and they are facing a team with a top-8 average rating of 3.50.  So by the numbers, my club's team would indeed be the underdog if the top-8 players from each team play.

In the other semi, my club's sub-flight winner has a top-8 average rating of 3.52 and faces the other second place team with a top-8 average rating of 3.50.  This one appears to be a lot closer and will likely come down to match-ups and how everyone plays on the given day.

A men's 5.0+ team finished third in the one flight and gets to play a semi against the second place team, the winner getting the first place team from the regular season.  The 5.0+ flight plays 1 singles and 2 doubles so we'll look at the top-5 averages.

The first place team has a top-5 average of 4.95, the second place team is at 4.90, and the third place team at 4.86.  So the teams finished "in order", but are pretty close and it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

Good luck teams!

How many USTA League matches have you played this year?

I just did an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report for a player that has played 42 USTA League matches that count towards their rating.  And league play is still going!

As I've written before regarding where you can play the most USTA League matches, the Mid-Atlantic gives a lot of opportunities and the player getting the report was from there.  They played in several areas in Virginia, D.C., and also in Maryland.

Me, I can only easily play in one area and while I play in multiple leagues, I've only played in 12 matches this year.  We've made local playoffs though so will get at least a few more.

How many matches have you played this year?