Saturday, January 25, 2014

What would the women's NTRP ratings be from the Australian Open?

Those of us that play USTA League are well aware of the NTRP rating system.  The system has levels of play all the way from 1.5 to 7.0 (leagues typically start at 2.5) where 7.0 is defined as a world class player.  The fact that they even list what a world class player would be has always piqued my interest and so I've started to collect ATP and WTA results that I can calculate NTRP ratings from.

Yes, I know these are meaningless, the pros don't care what their NTRP rating is, but I thought it would be fun to look at to see the range of ratings and if the ratings pass the smell test.

Now, this is just the first of what I hope will be many posts on the subject, and this one is using limited data, so let me explain what I've done.

I have only used results from the Australian Open women's main draw and only those results that had completed matches.  Because I have no history, I have defaulted all players to be an "average" 7.0 (6.75) but have gone through an extra iteration of calculations to have the effect of everyone starting at the same rating be diminished.

Without further adieu, the table below shows how the ladies would rate.

There is no surprise that Na Li tops the list and by a wide margin.  Cibulkova, Radwanska, Bouchard, and Ivanovic being next are also no surprise.  It is also interesting to note that the top 4 would technically have an NTRP rating of "7.5".  What is interesting is the next three.

Safarova is the 6th highest rated player despite going out in the third round.  Why you may ask?  Because she took Na Li to a third set, arguably playing her tougher than any of her other opponents.  Because the NTRP algorithm takes into account who you play, she gets more credit for this than other players do for advancing farther against weaker opponents.

Similarly, Serena and Jankovic with 3-1 records are ahead of three others with 4-1 records.

I will be continuing to work on this, and will have the men's posted tomorrow after the final.  Let me know what you think.

NameRatingRecord
NameRatingRecord
N.Li7.267-0
D.Cibulkova7.096-1
A.Radwanska7.025-1
E.Bouchard7.025-1
A.Ivanovic7.004-1
L.Safarova6.972-1
J.Jankovic6.963-1
S.Williams6.953-1
F.Pennetta6.944-1
S.Halep6.944-1
V.Azarenka6.944-1
M.Sharapova6.913-1
S.Stosur6.892-1
C.Dellacqua6.883-1
C.Wozniacki6.872-1
A.Kerber6.873-1
M.Keys6.871-1
J.Goerges6.861-1
A.Riske6.862-1
Ka.Pliskova6.861-1
K.Nara6.852-1
A.Pavlyuchenkova6.852-1
M.Niculescu6.842-1
G.Muguruza6.843-1
S.Lisicki6.841-1
Z.Diyas6.832-1
S.Stephens6.833-1
G.Voskoboeva6.811-1
K.Knapp6.811-1
M.Puig6.811-1
E.Svitolina6.812-1
E.Makarova6.803-1
D.Hantuchova6.792-1
O.Rogowska6.791-1
A.Beck6.791-1
B.Jovanovski6.781-1
C.McHale6.781-1
B.ZahlavovaStrycova6.781-1
J.Zheng6.782-1
O.Govortsova6.781-1
M.Rybarikova6.781-1
B.Bencic6.771-1
A.Cornet6.771-1
K.Flipkens6.771-1
M.Barthel6.772-1
V.Razzano6.761-1
L.Davis6.762-1
I.Falconi6.761-1
C.Giorgi6.751-1
J.Gajdosova6.750-1
L.Hradecka6.751-1
V.Williams6.750-1
C.SuarezNavarro6.752-1
T.Majeric6.750-1
L.Kumkhum6.741-1
A.Kudryavtseva6.731-1
A.Tomljanovic6.731-1
M.Minella6.731-1
I.Begu6.730-1
K.Bertens6.730-1
P.Kvitova6.720-1
Y.Meusburger6.722-1
A.Morita6.721-1
F.Schiavone6.720-1
H.Watson6.710-1
T.Pironkova6.711-1
L.Tsurenko6.710-1
A.Schmiedlova6.711-1
S.Peng6.710-1
J.Glushko6.710-1
A.VanUytvanck6.700-1
T.Pereira6.700-1
M.Erakovic6.701-1
V.Lepchenko6.701-1
V.Dolonc6.701-1
S.Voegele6.701-1
Y.Wickmayer6.701-1
T.Babos6.690-1
L.Arruabarrena6.690-1
J.Larsson6.680-1
K.Date-Krumm6.680-1
K.Kanepi6.680-1
Y.Shvedova6.680-1
C.Scheepers6.670-1
B.Mattek-Sands6.670-1
P.Mayr-Achleitner6.670-1
Y.Chan6.670-1
K.Zakopalova6.670-1
S.Cirstea6.670-1
S.Zhang6.660-1
A.Konjuh6.660-1
H.Tang6.660-1
R.Vinci6.650-1
D.Pfizenmaier6.640-1
Y.Putintseva6.640-1
S.Sanders6.630-1
K.Siniakova6.630-1
A.Tatishvili6.630-1
S.Kuznetsova6.630-1
K.Mladenovic6.630-1
P.Ormaechea6.630-1
M.Duque-Marino6.620-1
S.Errani6.620-1
C.Garcia6.620-1
N.Kichenok6.620-1
S.Peer6.620-1
S.Vickery6.620-1
M.Doi6.610-1
V.Zvonareva6.600-1
A.Barty6.600-1
E.Vesnina6.600-1
J.Cepelova6.600-1
A.Petkovic6.590-1
Y.Duan6.590-1
V.King6.590-1
C.Witthoeft6.580-1
A.Cadantu6.570-1
S.Soler-Espinosa6.570-1
M.Lucic-Baroni6.570-1
S.Hsieh6.570-1
A.MedinaGarrigues6.560-1
D.Vekic6.560-1
L.DominguezLino6.560-1
K.Piter6.550-1
L.Robson6.540-1
P.Parmentier6.530-1
P.Martic6.470-1