Monday, December 2, 2013

Year end ratings are out, how accurate are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings?

With year end ratings now being published, I took a quick look at some players to see how accurate my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings are.  I plan to do a more in depth analysis later, but here is how I did on some initial checks.

I played on a 4.0 team that went to local playoffs this year and included a 3.5 playing up and several players that played up at 4.5 too.  In our early start ratings, two were bumped up to 4.5 while the rest stayed where they were and I had all of these correct, and in the year-end ratings both early start bump ups came back down as I predicted.  So 14 for 14 here.

I did reports for a 4.5+ team that went to Nationals and won it all, and as expected they had quite a few players bumped up.  I got every player on this roster correct except for one.  This included a few self-rated players as well as a 5.0 that won every match all year and did not get bumped up to 5.5.  11 for 11 here.

I just heard back from someone I did a report for that I nailed her rating too.  She was a 3.0 that I had at 2.99, just below the threshold to be bumped but close enough to appeal if I was correct.  She wasn't bumped in the year-end ratings but was able to successfully appeal.  So my 2.99 was correct or at most just a few hundredths off.

From this sample, I am 25 out of 26 correct, or 96%.  I don't know that when I do a more complete analysis I'll maintain this high percentage, but I've also gotten other feedback and checked a few others and found my ratings to be right now for most.

Stay tuned for more.