With year end ratings now being published, I took a quick look at some players to see how accurate my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings are. I plan to do a more in depth analysis later, but here is how I did on some initial checks.
I played on a 4.0 team that went to local playoffs this year and included a 3.5 playing up and several players that played up at 4.5 too. In our early start ratings, two were bumped up to 4.5 while the rest stayed where they were and I had all of these correct, and in the year-end ratings both early start bump ups came back down as I predicted. So 14 for 14 here.
I did reports for a 4.5+ team that went to Nationals and won it all, and as expected they had quite a few players bumped up. I got every player on this roster correct except for one. This included a few self-rated players as well as a 5.0 that won every match all year and did not get bumped up to 5.5. 11 for 11 here.
I just heard back from someone I did a report for that I nailed her rating too. She was a 3.0 that I had at 2.99, just below the threshold to be bumped but close enough to appeal if I was correct. She wasn't bumped in the year-end ratings but was able to successfully appeal. So my 2.99 was correct or at most just a few hundredths off.
From this sample, I am 25 out of 26 correct, or 96%. I don't know that when I do a more complete analysis I'll maintain this high percentage, but I've also gotten other feedback and checked a few others and found my ratings to be right now for most.
Stay tuned for more.
I did not do a complete analysis for the Northern Oregon section, but I am fairly sure of one thing. It appears(assuming your numbers are correct, which I believe them to be) that the range the USTA took to determine a 4.5 rating was 3.9--4.60. I am only making assumptions but the 4.0 section is overloaded, and I think the parity would be way off if they made the bump start at 4.0 instead of 3.9.. This also makes it real tough for the 4.0 to compete at nationals(at least without sandbagging). There were only two 4.5 players getting bumped to 5.0, while 18 got bumped to 4.5. With the regular window our 4.5 section would be very small and therefore likely overloaded with 4.0 players to field teams. Just a thought, with no actual facts, but it makes sense
ReplyDeleteRudd, I assume you are working off a list a posted earlier in the year? The year-end ratings are probably close but that list doesn't include all the matches through the end of the year.
DeleteBut I have wondered at times if the USTA does have and implement some flexibility with the thresholds by section and/or if there is a built in buffer that keeps a player from being bumped down if they are close. If they were, they could of course appeal back up but I've seen enough cases of players not getting bumped down at times that it makes you go hmmm.
After doing a quick research of two clubs Cascade and Glendoveer Mens in Northern Oregon, it appears(assuming your October 31 ratings are correct which I believe them to be) that the Usta keep 4.5 rated players from previous season at that level, down to the 3.90 mark. However, if your rating was a 4.0 from the previous season you need to get to an actual 4.01 to be bumped to a 4.5 There are numerous players with a higher TLS rating than Usta year end actual rating, and in every case they are maintaining the rating of the previous season. Oh, and thank you for your research, I believe it to be beneficial to all.
ReplyDeleteI've often wondered if to get bumped down, you do need to not be just under the threshold between levels. Given that you can auto-appeal up if you are 0.04 under, I can see how they would at least not bump a player down if they are that close. And I haven't heard of someone bumped down auto-appealing back up so perhaps that is the case.
DeleteThere is a guy in my area who got bumped down and auto-appealed back up. No idea why... but now you at least know that it is possible.
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