Wednesday, July 3, 2013

2014 Pacific Northwest Early Start Ratings are out, how accurate are the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings?

As I wrote about yesterday, in the Pacific Northwest Section of the USTA, we have Early Start Ratings and as expected they came out yesterday.  The can be found here.

With their release, it provides an opportunity to check my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings as they should mirror and predict the bump ups/downs fairly closely.

I'm working on a more comprehensive analysis, but I did some spot checks based on feedback and questions from a few folks that had gotten individual or team reports in the past.

For one team I did a team report for, I predicted that 4 players were in line to be bumped up from 3.5 to 4.0 and indeed they were.  However, the team also had 3 more players that got bumped up that I didn't predict.  Looking closer, these 3 were the next 3 highest rated in my report and I had each one above 3.5 a few matches earlier and they'd dipped just below in their last match or two.  So certainly very close on these 3 "misses".

Another person I've done several individual reports for wrote me to let me know that he and a teammate had been moved up, but two others who had thought they might be weren't.  For these 4, my estimated were spot on agreeing with both bump ups and also agreeing the 2 that weren't shouldn't have been.

Then there was also another 2 that thought they'd be bumped down and were and I predicted these too.

Last, a friend had been getting periodic updates and expected to be bumped down and was and I predict this one correct.

For this sampling then, my ratings went 11 for 14 on predicting the bumps.  And the three that missed did so by just a few hundredths so not far off at all.

Stay tuned for more.