Tuesday, April 23, 2013

2013 NFL Pre-Season Projected Records

The NFL released the 2013 a few days ago, and with that, my computer can now project the records for each team.  Without further adieu, here is the list.

The columns below are the team, most likely record with the chance of that record, then the chance of a record one game better and one game worse.  Red teams are AFC and blue are NFC, and bold are the teams that would win their divisions.

Note that these projections are based on the end of year ratings from last year and do not reflect any ratings changes due to personnel or coaching changes.

You probably aren't surprised to see most of the teams at the top.  Denver and New England are expected to rule the AFC with Houston and Baltimore close behind.  What may be a bit of a surprise is the drop-off for the wildcards, with Cincinnati projected at 9-7 and Pittsburgh at 8-8.  Pittsburgh is projected to be tied with Indianapolis and San Diego at 8-8 but has the better chance of that record and 9-7 so they get the nod.

The NFC is probably more or less as expected too with the NFC West leading the way, Seattle getting the nod for the division based on every so slightly better chances at 11-5 and and 12-4.  Green Bay slots in at 10-6 as do the Giants and Atlanta.  The computer doesn't factor in injuries but it is interesting to see that Washington is a game back of the Giants at 9-7 but getting a wildcard over Chicago and Minnesota on better chance of 9-7 and 10-6.

For what its worth, the computer's pre-season projections last year correctly projected 3 of the AFC division winners and 3 of the NFC division winners as well.

Enjoy!

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Denver12-424.423.717.4
New England11-521.517.719.6
Seattle11-521.316.820.2
San Francisco11-521.016.619.9
Green Bay10-621.518.818.5
Houston10-621.417.619.5
Baltimore10-621.018.718.0
NY Giants10-620.215.819.8
Atlanta10-620.015.420.0
Washington9-722.120.617.5
Minnesota9-721.217.619.3
Cincinnati9-720.518.118.0
Chicago9-720.219.316.5
Pittsburgh8-821.219.717.2
Indianapolis8-821.217.819.1
Dallas8-821.118.618.2
San Diego8-820.720.016.3
St Louis8-820.717.119.2
Tampa Bay8-820.115.819.8
Carolina8-819.916.319.1
Buffalo7-920.516.719.4
Arizona7-920.417.218.7
NY Jets7-920.315.720.2
New Orleans7-920.219.516.2
Miami7-919.919.016.2
Cleveland6-1022.418.519.9
Tennessee6-1020.720.315.9
Oakland5-1122.721.217.4
Philadelphia5-1122.617.121.8
Detroit5-1121.220.016.8
Jacksonville4-1223.520.818.7
Kansas City4-1223.419.420.3