Thursday, June 28, 2012

A few predicted early start bump ups using Estimated Dynamic NTRP

I wrote earlier about early start ratings coming out soon and how it provides an opportunity to measure how accurate my Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings are.  I'll do some analysis after they come out, but here as an example are what my ratings say are the "locks" to be bumped up at each level.  For this analysis, I'm only looking at players that were computer rated coming in to the year, not any self-rated players.

First the men:

  • 2.5 - Only several self-rated 2.5s are obvious bump ups
  • 3.0 - Bart Cocales is at 3.16 which would seem a clear bump up
  • 3.5 - Richard Sweet is at 3.62 which I'd expect would be bumped up
  • 4.0 - Colin Saechao is at 4.12 which I'd expect would be bumped up
  • 4.5 - Mark Bergman is at 4.56 which is just into 5.0 range and depending on the USTA's tolerances may be bumped up
For the women:
  • 2.5 - Jaisve Ochea is at 2.78 and should be bumped up
  • 3.0 - Barbara Smith is at 3.24 and should be bumped up
  • 3.5 - Constance Marley is at 3.68 and should be bumped up
  • 4.0 - Erin Link is at 4.05 and may be bumped up
  • 4.5 - Christine Hayes is at 4.56 and may be bumped up
There you have it.  Could these be wrong?  Sure, and certainly there will be more than the above.

Look for more later.

Note: corrected men's 3.0 bump up due to data error

Note 7/1: This was for early start ratings at the end of June 2012.  Stay tuned for some discussion of the 2013 early start ratings once they do come out.