The columns below are the team, most likely record with the chance of that record, then the chance of a record one game better and one game worse. Red teams are AFC and blue are NFC, and bold are the teams that would win their divisions.
Note that these projections are based on the end of year ratings from last year and do not reflect any ratings changes due to personnel or coaching changes. So Denver is project at 7-9 in part due to a tougher schedule as a division winner, but having Peyton Manning is not factored in.
There are no big surprises, New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh expected to top the AFC and Houston also winning their division. The small surprises are probably San Diego winning the West (no Manning factored in for Denver) and Miami getting a wildcard. But Cincinnati, the Jets, and Tennessee would all be tied with Miami so it would come down to tie-breakers.
In the NFC, also no big surprises unless you expect New Orleans to falter and Atlanta to benefit, although Atlanta is projected to be a wildcard. Philadelphia is right there at 9-7 too, but Dallas and Chicago are close but a game back.
Enjoy!
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| New England | 12-4 | 22.7 | 18.0 | 20.6 |
| Green Bay | 12-4 | 22.6 | 17.2 | 21.3 |
| San Francisco | 11-5 | 22.4 | 17.6 | 20.8 |
| New Orleans | 11-5 | 21.9 | 19.6 | 18.3 |
| Baltimore | 10-6 | 21.2 | 19.2 | 17.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 10-6 | 21.1 | 18.4 | 18.5 |
| NY Giants | 10-6 | 21.1 | 17.8 | 19.1 |
| Atlanta | 9-7 | 20.9 | 18.1 | 18.4 |
| Detroit | 9-7 | 20.9 | 18.1 | 18.4 |
| Houston | 9-7 | 20.7 | 19.3 | 17.1 |
| San Diego | 9-7 | 20.4 | 17.5 | 18.5 |
| Philadelphia | 9-7 | 20.3 | 19.8 | 16.0 |
| Chicago | 8-8 | 20.8 | 19.7 | 16.7 |
| Miami | 8-8 | 20.7 | 19.7 | 16.6 |
| Dallas | 8-8 | 20.6 | 16.9 | 19.3 |
| Seattle | 8-8 | 20.5 | 18.9 | 17.2 |
| Cincinnati | 8-8 | 20.5 | 17.0 | 19.0 |
| NY Jets | 8-8 | 20.3 | 19.3 | 16.5 |
| Tennessee | 8-8 | 20.3 | 17.0 | 18.8 |
| Arizona | 7-9 | 21.5 | 17.1 | 20.3 |
| Denver | 7-9 | 20.8 | 18.4 | 18.1 |
| Oakland | 7-9 | 20.7 | 19.2 | 17.1 |
| Buffalo | 7-9 | 20.6 | 18.6 | 17.6 |
| Carolina | 7-9 | 20.6 | 18.5 | 17.6 |
| Kansas City | 7-9 | 20.1 | 18.9 | 16.6 |
| Minnesota | 6-10 | 21.4 | 18.7 | 18.4 |
| Jacksonville | 6-10 | 21.1 | 17.9 | 18.9 |
| Washington | 6-10 | 20.9 | 19.4 | 17.2 |
| Cleveland | 5-11 | 22.4 | 18.2 | 20.3 |
| Indianapolis | 5-11 | 22.0 | 17.5 | 20.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 5-11 | 21.9 | 17.4 | 20.6 |
| St Louis | 4-12 | 23.5 | 19.5 | 20.3 |
I am assuming this uses your end of season power ratings? That means no NFL draft, no Manning in Denver, no other moves?
ReplyDelete@Wheell, yes as noted in the lead in, these use my end of season ratings from last year and thus don't factor in the draft or any other player movement.
ReplyDelete