Monday, March 12, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Observations and Potential Upsets

I posted my computer's full ratings and as well as who my computer says should have made the 68-team field earlier today.  But now it is time to look at who actually made the field and see what observations can be made and what we can learn from them.  The full list of teams with my computer's ratings is below.

First, it is always fun to look at the seeding and see how things panned out.  At the top, my computer agrees with 3 of the #1 seeds and 3 of the #2 seeds.  It says Syracuse should have been a #2 and Ohio State the #1, and then Duke is too high as a #2 and Memphis should have replaced them.  So all in all, not that far off here.

So where was the seeding way off?

Belmont is the most underrated team being a #14 seed, but my computer ranks them #27 which says they should have been around a #7 seed.  They play a #3 seed in Georgetown that is seeded slightly high (ranked #17 should have been a #5 seed) so this game is a potential upset.

Memphis is a #8 seed but being ranked #8 by my computer says they should have been a #2 seed.

St. Louis and Long Beach State are also small conference teams getting no respect as my computer ranks them #19 and #33, worthy of #5 and #9 seeds, but they received #9 and #12 seeds.

On the other side of things, Montana got in with their conferences automatic bid, but ranked #88 should have been around a #15 seed but received a #13 seed ahead of some at-large teams my computer ranks well ahead of them.

Southern Miss, somehow gets a #9 seed but being ranked #67 shouldn't have even been a bubble team let alone make the tournament.  I may eat crow on this, but do not pick them as one of your #9 upsets #8 seed games.

Colorado State also shouldn't have made it as an #11 seed being ranked #71.  Don't look for them to pull the upset of Murray State either.

San Diego State gets a #6 seed but being ranked #44 should have had more like a #12 seed.  The committee set them up to fail having to play #49 NC State, good upset chance here.

Notre Dame and Temple are a bit high at #7 and #5 respectively, as they are ranked #40 and #32 more in line with a #10 and #8 seed.

What do you think?


RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Kentucky87.68832-273.497+0, -1.560
2Michigan St86.53027-775.276+2, +0.691
3Ohio State86.30627-774.682+2, +0.614
4North Carolina85.85629-573.825-2, -1.013
5Kansas85.26227-675.069-2, -0.849
6Missouri85.04530-472.937+1, +1.224
7Syracuse84.53431-273.480-1, -0.672
8Memphis83.22626-872.864+3, +0.904
9Wichita St82.85626-571.967-1, -0.208
10Indiana82.46825-873.863-1, -0.476
11Vanderbilt82.14524-1074.450+9, +1.286
12Baylor82.03426-774.585+2, +0.206
13Duke81.89427-675.163-3, -0.590
14Wisconsin81.86324-974.377-1, -0.104
15Louisville81.71026-974.378+9, +1.650
16Marquette81.50725-774.091-4, -0.676
17Georgetown DC81.15422-874.322+1, -0.023
18New Mexico81.05226-670.889+3, +0.656
19St Louis U.81.04524-771.787-4, -0.659
20Florida80.99523-1074.278-1, +0.095
21Kansas St80.69421-1074.094-4, -0.510
22Michigan80.59123-975.411-6, -0.790
23Florida St80.45224-974.404+9, +1.144
24Gonzaga79.85625-670.251-2, -0.473
25Iowa St79.67422-1073.698-2, -0.572
26Creighton79.58628-571.435+0, -0.167
27Belmont79.52826-769.833+1, -0.041
28Murray St79.47727-168.534+1, -0.059
29UNLV79.17124-871.982-4, -0.654
30Texas79.15920-1374.756+1, -0.324
31Virginia79.12422-971.795-1, -0.371
32Temple79.07524-773.768-5, -0.650
33Long Beach St79.04923-870.979+3, +0.152
34Cincinnati79.01224-1072.603+4, +0.461
35Purdue78.99821-1274.341-1, -0.265
36Alabama78.95221-1174.083-3, -0.322
37St Mary's CA78.59325-569.489+2, +0.106
38Connecticut78.46320-1374.596+4, +0.505
39California78.36924-971.122-4, -0.881
40Notre Dame78.36622-1173.470-3, -0.482
42West Virginia78.09119-1374.264-1, -0.272
43VA Commonwealth77.98228-669.791+0, +0.073
44San Diego St77.50924-771.409+0, -0.208
45Harvard77.44125-469.556+2, -0.028
46New Mexico St77.30324-969.409+13, +0.587
49North Carolina St77.22522-1272.929+12, +0.617
51South Florida77.17119-1374.445-2, +0.109
53St Bonaventure76.84720-1171.963+19, +0.855
54Brigham Young76.78423-869.788-4, -0.242
56Xavier OH76.71821-1273.939-1, -0.040
57Iona76.66025-769.323-3, -0.103
59Ohio U.76.61826-769.479-2, -0.101
62South Dakota St76.52325-768.956-4, -0.195
67Southern Miss75.96823-872.836-7, -0.699
70Davidson75.79824-768.300-2, -0.479
71Colorado St75.79520-1172.550+2, -0.107
77Lehigh75.39825-766.579+5, +0.352
85Colorado74.65021-1172.002+20, +1.047
88Montana74.54323-666.465+2, +0.125
98Lamar73.92321-1168.848+16, +0.834
103Detroit Mercy73.66820-1370.010+13, +0.635
122UNC-Asheville72.50921-967.032+4, -0.086
125Loyola-Maryland72.32524-868.357+7, +0.096
129Vermont72.08923-1166.344+17, +0.635
147LIU-Brooklyn71.20525-866.390+13, +0.591
180Norfolk St68.98424-866.027+1, -0.034
186Western Kentucky68.66115-1870.000+19, +0.792
227Mississippi Valley St66.60921-1266.358-6, -0.477