Monday, March 12, 2012

Who should have made the 68 team 2012 NCAA Tournament - Miami, Drexel, Tennessee, Seton Hall, and Arizona

We now know the 68 tournament teams, but who should have made it?  Below is the answer according to my computer.

The bold teams are the teams that won their conference tournament or received the automatic bid.  I've then filled in the rest of the 68 team field based on the highest rating by my computer.  I've then highlighted in red those teams that did not make the field.

There are 5 that have an argument for being left out, the highest rated of those being Miami-FL.  Yes, they were just 19-12, but West Virginia was 19-13 and had only a slightly tougher schedule.

Drexel is 27-6 and my computer likes them enough, but the committee must have dinged them for their weak schedule.

My computer also likes Tennessee enough but 17-14 just wasn't good enough despite the strong schedule.

Seton Hall has a decent gripe with 20 wins and a strong enough schedule.

And Arizona would be my computer's last at-large team with 23 wins and a decent schedule.

Who made it in that shouldn't have?

Southern Miss is in as a #9 seed, so no where near the bubble, and they have a nice looking 23-8 record, but my computer ranks them only #67, well back of the #52 that Arizona, my last at-large is at.  A #9 seed is certainly too high.

Xavier made it in as a #10 seed, also not close to the bubble, and is closer to making it on my list at #56, but too should have been left out or certainly not a #10 seed.

Colorado State ranks only #71 on my computer but somehow got a #11 seed.

BYU eked in as a #14 seed and has to play a first round game and at #54, just two spots behind #52 Arizona, one can make the argument this was ok.

And Iona, BYU's opponent in that first round game also received a #14 seed and at #57 is also close enough to justify it.

Now, just because a team made it my computer said shouldn't doesn't mean they won't win a round or two.  Anything can happen in a given game, and in the case of Southern Miss, Xavier, and Colorado State, they actually get a high enough seed that they don't have to face as strong an opponent.  But it doesn't change the fact that particularly Miami and Drexel should have made it in.


Thoughts on these teams being omitted and eking in?

More to come.


RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Kentucky87.68832-273.497+0, -1.560
2Michigan St86.53027-775.276+2, +0.691
3Ohio State86.30627-774.682+2, +0.614
4North Carolina85.85629-573.825-2, -1.013
5Kansas85.26227-675.069-2, -0.849
6Missouri85.04530-472.937+1, +1.224
7Syracuse84.53431-273.480-1, -0.672
8Memphis83.22626-872.864+3, +0.904
9Wichita St82.85626-571.967-1, -0.208
10Indiana82.46825-873.863-1, -0.476
11Vanderbilt82.14524-1074.450+9, +1.286
12Baylor82.03426-774.585+2, +0.206
13Duke81.89427-675.163-3, -0.590
14Wisconsin81.86324-974.377-1, -0.104
15Louisville81.71026-974.378+9, +1.650
16Marquette81.50725-774.091-4, -0.676
17Georgetown DC81.15422-874.322+1, -0.023
18New Mexico81.05226-670.889+3, +0.656
19St Louis U.81.04524-771.787-4, -0.659
20Florida80.99523-1074.278-1, +0.095
21Kansas St80.69421-1074.094-4, -0.510
22Michigan80.59123-975.411-6, -0.790
23Florida St80.45224-974.404+9, +1.144
24Gonzaga79.85625-670.251-2, -0.473
25Iowa St79.67422-1073.698-2, -0.572
26Creighton79.58628-571.435+0, -0.167
27Belmont79.52826-769.833+1, -0.041
28Murray St79.47727-168.534+1, -0.059
29UNLV79.17124-871.982-4, -0.654
30Texas79.15920-1374.756+1, -0.324
31Virginia79.12422-971.795-1, -0.371
32Temple79.07524-773.768-5, -0.650
33Long Beach St79.04923-870.979+3, +0.152
34Cincinnati79.01224-1072.603+4, +0.461
35Purdue78.99821-1274.341-1, -0.265
36Alabama78.95221-1174.083-3, -0.322
37St Mary's CA78.59325-569.489+2, +0.106
38Connecticut78.46320-1374.596+4, +0.505
39California78.36924-971.122-4, -0.881
40Notre Dame78.36622-1173.470-3, -0.482
41Miami FL78.35119-1273.727-1, -0.061
42West Virginia78.09119-1374.264-1, -0.272
43VA Commonwealth77.98228-669.791+0, +0.073
44San Diego St77.50924-771.409+0, -0.208
45Harvard77.44125-469.556+2, -0.028
46New Mexico St77.30324-969.409+13, +0.587
47Drexel77.25827-668.492-1, -0.219
48Tennessee77.23317-1473.863-3, -0.348
49North Carolina St77.22522-1272.929+12, +0.617
50Seton Hall77.19220-1273.299+6, +0.465
51South Florida77.17119-1374.445-2, +0.109
52Arizona77.14723-1171.043+0, +0.245
53St Bonaventure76.84720-1171.963+19, +0.855
59Ohio U.76.61826-769.479-2, -0.101
62South Dakota St76.52325-768.956-4, -0.195
70Davidson75.79824-768.300-2, -0.479
77Lehigh75.39825-766.579+5, +0.352
85Colorado74.65021-1172.002+20, +1.047
88Montana74.54323-666.465+2, +0.125
98Lamar73.92321-1168.848+16, +0.834
103Detroit Mercy73.66820-1370.010+13, +0.635
122UNC-Asheville72.50921-967.032+4, -0.086
125Loyola-Maryland72.32524-868.357+7, +0.096
129Vermont72.08923-1166.344+17, +0.635
147LIU-Brooklyn71.20525-866.390+13, +0.591
180Norfolk St68.98424-866.027+1, -0.034
186Western Kentucky68.66115-1870.000+19, +0.792
227Mississippi Valley St66.60921-1266.358-6, -0.477