The bold teams are the teams that won their conference tournament or received the automatic bid. I've then filled in the rest of the 68 team field based on the highest rating by my computer. I've then highlighted in red those teams that did not make the field.
There are 5 that have an argument for being left out, the highest rated of those being Miami-FL. Yes, they were just 19-12, but West Virginia was 19-13 and had only a slightly tougher schedule.
Drexel is 27-6 and my computer likes them enough, but the committee must have dinged them for their weak schedule.
My computer also likes Tennessee enough but 17-14 just wasn't good enough despite the strong schedule.
Seton Hall has a decent gripe with 20 wins and a strong enough schedule.
And Arizona would be my computer's last at-large team with 23 wins and a decent schedule.
Who made it in that shouldn't have?
Southern Miss is in as a #9 seed, so no where near the bubble, and they have a nice looking 23-8 record, but my computer ranks them only #67, well back of the #52 that Arizona, my last at-large is at. A #9 seed is certainly too high.
Xavier made it in as a #10 seed, also not close to the bubble, and is closer to making it on my list at #56, but too should have been left out or certainly not a #10 seed.
Colorado State ranks only #71 on my computer but somehow got a #11 seed.
BYU eked in as a #14 seed and has to play a first round game and at #54, just two spots behind #52 Arizona, one can make the argument this was ok.
And Iona, BYU's opponent in that first round game also received a #14 seed and at #57 is also close enough to justify it.
Now, just because a team made it my computer said shouldn't doesn't mean they won't win a round or two. Anything can happen in a given game, and in the case of Southern Miss, Xavier, and Colorado State, they actually get a high enough seed that they don't have to face as strong an opponent. But it doesn't change the fact that particularly Miami and Drexel should have made it in.
Thoughts on these teams being omitted and eking in?
More to come.
|2||Michigan St||86.530||27-7||75.276||+2, +0.691|
|3||Ohio State||86.306||27-7||74.682||+2, +0.614|
|4||North Carolina||85.856||29-5||73.825||-2, -1.013|
|9||Wichita St||82.856||26-5||71.967||-1, -0.208|
|17||Georgetown DC||81.154||22-8||74.322||+1, -0.023|
|18||New Mexico||81.052||26-6||70.889||+3, +0.656|
|19||St Louis U.||81.045||24-7||71.787||-4, -0.659|
|21||Kansas St||80.694||21-10||74.094||-4, -0.510|
|23||Florida St||80.452||24-9||74.404||+9, +1.144|
|25||Iowa St||79.674||22-10||73.698||-2, -0.572|
|28||Murray St||79.477||27-1||68.534||+1, -0.059|
|33||Long Beach St||79.049||23-8||70.979||+3, +0.152|
|37||St Mary's CA||78.593||25-5||69.489||+2, +0.106|
|40||Notre Dame||78.366||22-11||73.470||-3, -0.482|
|41||Miami FL||78.351||19-12||73.727||-1, -0.061|
|42||West Virginia||78.091||19-13||74.264||-1, -0.272|
|43||VA Commonwealth||77.982||28-6||69.791||+0, +0.073|
|44||San Diego St||77.509||24-7||71.409||+0, -0.208|
|46||New Mexico St||77.303||24-9||69.409||+13, +0.587|
|49||North Carolina St||77.225||22-12||72.929||+12, +0.617|
|50||Seton Hall||77.192||20-12||73.299||+6, +0.465|
|51||South Florida||77.171||19-13||74.445||-2, +0.109|
|53||St Bonaventure||76.847||20-11||71.963||+19, +0.855|
|59||Ohio U.||76.618||26-7||69.479||-2, -0.101|
|62||South Dakota St||76.523||25-7||68.956||-4, -0.195|
|103||Detroit Mercy||73.668||20-13||70.010||+13, +0.635|
|180||Norfolk St||68.984||24-8||66.027||+1, -0.034|
|186||Western Kentucky||68.661||15-18||70.000||+19, +0.792|
|227||Mississippi Valley St||66.609||21-12||66.358||-6, -0.477|