Word is that ratings should be published on Monday December 2nd, my guess is towards the end of the day, and a lot of people will be interested to see where they end up. Some players had good years and are anticipating (or afraid of?) being bumped up, others had middle of the road seasons and expect to stay the same, while others perhaps had losing seasons and are afraid (or hoping?) for a bump down.
My ratings, while not perfect, are a very good indicator of where a player's rating will end up, and I can do still do reports for player's wanting to see where they will end up, or looking for an explanation of why they ended up where they did.
But, we can also look historically at some statistics of how past years have ended up to get an idea of what will happen this year.
What follows is a table showing bump down/up percentages by year and level for the past few years.
| 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | Up | Down | Up | Down | Up | Down |
| 2.5 | 35% | 0% | 32% | 0% | 29% | 0% |
| 3.0 | 14% | 3.1% | 14% | 2.9% | 14% | 3.1% |
| 3.5 | 7.6% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| 4.0 | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| 4.5 | 4.4% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 7.8% |
| 5.0 | 1.9% | 17% | 1.6% | 17% | 1.7% | 17% |
| 5.5 | 0.7% | 39% | 0% | 36% | 0% | 45% |
We see the percentages are quite consistent for most levels, but in general there have been a slight increase in bump ups the past two years, and the bump downs have also had a small increase at several levels.
But given how consistent the bump percentages have been, it is probably pretty safe to assume 2019 will show very similar bump percentages as shown above.
Stay tuned, I'll be posting more stats and observations once year-end ratings are published.
Update: Updated the above table in this post adding in 2019 for comparison.
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