What this table is showing is the players at a given level that were bumped up. Specifically for example, 7.6% of 3.5s that were 2017 year-end 3.5s were bumped up to 4.0, and 4.1% were bumped down. So the new data added is now showing that 8.1% of 2018 year-end 3.5s were bumped up to 4.0 and 4.0% were bumped down.
Here is the full table.
| 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | Up | Down | Up | Down | Up | Down | ||
| 2.5 | 32% | 0% | 35% | 0% | 32% | 0% | 29% | 0% |
| 3.0 | 14% | 3.2% | 14% | 3.1% | 14% | 2.9% | 14% | 3.1% |
| 3.5 | 8.1% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| 4.0 | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| 4.5 | 5.0% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 7.8% |
| 5.0 | 1.4% | 20% | 1.9% | 17% | 1.6% | 17% | 1.7% | 17% |
| 5.5 | 0% | 37% | 0.7% | 39% | 0% | 36% | 0% | 45% |
The most noticeable change is that the bump up rate for 4.0s is significantly higher than past years, 4.x for three years but 7.2% for 2019. That is a huge jump nationally and across genders and I'm sure there will be pockets where that is much higher (stay tuned for that). The bump down rate for 4.0s was not significantly lower though.
4.5s also had a higher bump up rate but not nearly as much as the 4.0s.
Based on this, it would seem the USTA may have thought there was a glut of players at the top of the 4.0 range and did a little adjusting up, and perhaps also a bit with 4.5s to get a few more 5.0s.
I will work on all my normal analysis in the coming days, but wanted to get this out quickly. Also, I'll look at slicing this data by gender and section/state too.
Update: Bump rates by section and gender here.
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