Wednesday, June 1, 2016

PNW Northwest Washington 40+ 3.5 Women Local Playoff Preview

Local playoffs are here!  This weekend finds the 40 & over teams in the Seattle area having their local playoffs with the winners, and additionally due to Northwest Washington having wildcards at every level, the finalists advancing on to Sectionals.

Our playoff format is to have teams seeded based on their finish in their respective sub-flights and put into a single elimination draw.  Based on the number of sub-flights, some teams have byes in the first round.

It is always fun to preview things to see how well my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings predict the matches.  So here is what the 3.5 Women look like.

First, the top-8 averages for each team.

TeamAverage
ACES-Edwards3.49
BC-McEachran3.47
MI-Ko3.44
STC-Kellogg3.43
TCSP-SLICE-Burvill Holmes3.39
EDG-Kainz3.38
PL-Carter3.37
CP-Suk/Garnett3.31

From this, Aces, and Bellevue Club appear to be the favorites.  However, due to how they were seeded from the regular season, these teams play each other in the first round!  That is a tough first round match.

The next team, Mercer Island, is favored in their first round match and in another unlucky seeding will play the Aces/BC winner in the semi-finals.

The favorite on the other side would then be Seattle Tennis Club who appears to have the either path to the final and getting a slot at Sectionals.

But if each team doesn't play their top-8, who is deeper could play a factor, and here are how the full roster averages look.

Team NameAverage Rating
MI-Ko3.32
STC-Kellogg3.29
ACES-Edwards3.29
BC-McEachran3.28
PL-Carter3.26
TCSP-SLICE-Burvill Holmes3.22
EDG-Kainz3.18
CP-Suk/Garnett3.13
Based on this, Mercer Island would be the favorite.  Will the teams play their best or try to use their depth?

Good luck teams!