As always, the ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings. And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.
The 4.0 men have a moderate range from a high of 4.23 for two teams down to 3.99. All but that one are at 4.01 or higher which should make for a competitive Nationals. But oddly there are just 16 teams listed presently, there is none from Hawaii. If they get added, I'll update this preview.
Flight 5 with Florida, Middle States, Midwest, and Texas appears the toughest with the #1, #3, #6, and #10 rated teams. Advancing from this flight will be a challenge.
Flight 8 has Mid-Atlantic, Northern, Northern Cal, and Southern and isn't much easier with the #4, #5, #8, and #9 rated teams.
I list flight 7 next with Eastern, Intermountain, Missouri Valley, and Southern Cal because the #2 team is in it, but it falls off quick with the others at #11, #12, and #13. Looks like a breeze for the #2 seed.
Last is flight 6 comprised of Caribbean, New England, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest with teams rated just #7, #14, #15, and #16.
If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.
Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.
Contact me if you are interested in any reports.
Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match. Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins. So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.
So if all of the teams are relatively equal and have close matches does it stand to reason that the matches won't really affect their ratings? They would have to really crush their opponents to get a bump up, or lose badly to get a bump down in their ratings.
ReplyDeleteIn theory if everyone played to their rating and the matches went as the computer expected, no one would really have their rating change. But the reality is that due to differences between sections and players just doing good/bad in the heat of Nationals competition, you see matches where players win by more/less than expected.
DeleteYou aren't getting a bump down by getting beat at nationals.
ReplyDeleteunless you lose badly to a weaker player(s)
ReplyDeletePossible, but very unlikely to happen.
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