2024 USTA NTRP year-end ratings are out! For real this time!

I wrote a few days ago that the USTA's sneak peek year-end ratings were out, well, the full year-end ratings seem to be out.

So, hop on over to TennisLink or the USTA app and see where you ended up.  Did you get what you expected?

I love to get feedback and interesting stories or scenarios, drop me a note at ratings@teravation.net.

2024 USTA NTRP year-end ratings are out! ... sort of

It is Black Friday and everyone is shopping, but USTA League players are anticipating 2024 year-end ratings to be published which typically happens early the week after Thanksgiving.  I'm guessing they will come out around midnight on December 3rd this year.

However, for those that took advantage of a promotion (if you can call it that) to take an on-line Safe Sport training, you should have received an e-mail with your rating today November 29th.

The USTA sent an e-mail to members back on October 11 offering to send player's their 2024 year-end rating in an e-mail on 11/29, four days before they would be published on TennisLink, if they took a Safe Sport training course, and indeed I took a course (two actually) and got an e-mail today!

Now comes the confusion when players tell their friends what they new rating is, but TennisLink still shows their old rating.  Since the USTA clearly has the ratings already, I think it is somewhat silly that they don't just go ahead and publish them.

What do you think?  Did you take the training and get your rating via e-mail today?

A recap of week 3 and 4 of 2024 USTA League Nationals 55 & Over

Week 4, the last one, of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have nine new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with all of the 18 & Over Mixed being played this weekend, plus a few 55 & Over events.  I didn't cover the 55 & Over last week so I'll review those events from the past two weekends, all played in Scottsdale.

First from two weekends ago.

The 55 & Over 7.0 Women had two 4-0 teams, Southern and PNW, were joined by 3-1 Southwest and Texas in the semis who beat out Midwest on court record.  The two 3-1 teams won the semis each 2-1 with Southwest then beating Texas 2-1 in the final.  Southern and Southwest were favorites in the simulation, the other a bit of a surprise.

The 55 & Over 7.0 Men had four 4-0 teams, PNW, Texas, Eastern, and Midwest.  In the semis Midwest and Eastern won 2-1 each and then Eastern won the final also 2-1.  All four teams were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 55 & Over 9.0 Women had 4-0 Florida, Texas, and SoCal were joined by 3-1 Mid-Atlantic who beat out two other 3-1 teams on court record.  The semis saw Mid-Atlantic take out Florida 3-0 with Texas winning the other semi 2-1, but there is no winner listed on TennisLink as of now.  All four teams were favorites or solid contenders in the simulation.

And the 55 & Over 9.0 men had NorCal and MoValley go 4-0 and were joined by Midwest and Middle States who got in on court record.  Middle States and MoValley won semis 2-1, and then MoValley won the final 2-1.  Three of these teams were favorites in the simulation, just MoValley was a bit of a surprise.

Then from this weekend.

The 55 & Over 6.0 Women had just one 4-0 team, Southern, with a 6-way tie at 3-1 for three spots.  The top-4 all had 9-3 court records and Florida, NorCal, and Caribbean got in on fewer sets lost.  Southern and NorCal made the final where NorCal won 2-1.  Southern and NorCal were favorites, Caribbean a contender in the simulation.

The 55 & Over 6.0 Men was a similar scenario with 4-0 Southern and six 3-1 teams with the top-3 on court record being SoCal, NorCal, and Intermountain advancing.  Intermountain beat SoCal in the final 3-0.  The simulation had all four teams in the top-5 expected to make the semis.

The 55 & Over 8.0 Women had three 4-0 teams in NorCal, Hawaii, and SoCal, and then New England was the best 3-1 team.  NorCal and SoCal played in the final with SoCal won it all 3-0.  NorCal and SoCal were favorites in the simulation, Hawaii a solid contender.

Last, the 55 & Over 8.0 Men had four 4-0 teams in Southern, Caribbean, Midwest, and Eastern.  Southern and Caribbean won their semis 2-1 and Southern won the final 2-1.  Just Eastern wasn't a favorite or contender in the simulation.

Congratulations to all the champions.

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 wraps up this weekend!  The schedule was more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and had more events each weekend.

The last weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed in San Diego, and 55 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 4.5 Women.

Teams: 13 (no Caribbean, Eastern, Florida, Hawaii)
Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 79% / 3
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.42 / 4.10
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.36/ 4.27
Favorites: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, NorCal, Southern
Contenders: New England, SoCal

With fewer teams, very little chance of a lot of undefeated teams, but still a small chance of four of them and three have most likely 4-0 records.  Those teams are clear favorites, we'll see if one of the contenders can find their way in.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 wraps up this weekend!  The schedule was more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and had more events each weekend.

The last weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed in San Diego, and 55 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 4.5 Men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 36%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 7%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 64% / 5
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.50 / 4.33
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.48/ 4.36
Favorites: Florida, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Southern, MoValley

This event does not look competitive top to bottom with a real chance of five 4-0 teams from the five favorites, and just two contenders forecast to have a chance to play spoiler.  If there is a tie for a semi spot, it could be a big one.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 9.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 wraps up this weekend!  The schedule was more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and had more events each weekend.

The last weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed in San Diego, and 55 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 9.0 Mixed.

Teams: 15 (No NorCal or Caribbean)
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 75% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.42 / 4.16
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.38/ 4.24
Favorites: Florida, MoValley, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Southwest, Texas

A competitive event with a very low chance of a bunch of 4-0 teams.  A good list of contenders trying to spoil the favorites bid for the semis, and there are even two or three others on the fringe.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 wraps up this weekend!  The schedule was more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and had more events each weekend.

The last weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed in San Diego, and 55 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.05 / 3.82
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.03 / 3.87
Favorites: Caribbean, Hawaii, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Eastern, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, MoValley, Southern, Texas

Seven teams have a most likely record of 3-1, so could be a big tie there.  A pretty small chance of a lot of 4-0 teams.

What do you think?