Analyzing 2025 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Bump rates by level and gender

The 2025 year-end NTRP ratings have been published and that means we get to take a look at how ratings have changed.

In this post I'll take a look at bump rates by level and gender.

First, here are the overall bump rates by level for 2025.

2025 Bump Rates by Level

For comparison, here was last year.

2024 Bump Rates by Level

The rates are not dramatically different, but 2025 bump ups are perhaps a little lower with about 12.5% of 3.0s being bumped up compared to nearly 15% in 2024.  At the 3.5 level also slightly lower at 7% versus 7.5%, but 4.0s are right about the same and 4.5s perhaps a little higher.

But doing it by gender is more interesting, here are the women in 2025.

2025 Bump Rates by Level - Women

And for comparison, 2024.

2024 Bump Rates by Level - Women

Similar, at 3.5 and below the bump up percentage is down a bit, but at 4.0 and 4.5, perhaps slightly higher.

And then the men.

2025 Bump Rates by Level - Men

And 2024.

2024 Bump Rates by Level - Men

Again, similar here.

So at the lower levels, while bump rates remain higher there than at higher levels, the bump rates are trending down slightly from last year.

2025 USTA NTRP Year End Ratings Are Out!

The year-end NTRP ratings were published last night, a little earlier than expected at around 9pm EST, and with that players are rabidly checking their rating and determining what that means for what teams they can join and how captains can form their teams.

I'll try to post some analysis shortly, but my quick observation is that there seems to have been fewer bumps up and down than normal.  I haven't run across many surprising bump ups, but quite a few surprises where players perhaps should have been bumped up and weren't.

Stay tuned for more.

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2025 continue this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 3.0 in Scottsdale, 40 & Over 3.5 in Surprise, and 40 & Over 4.5 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 13%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.63 / 3.37
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.58 / 3.48
Favorites: Florida, Intermountain, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Middle States, Midwest, New England, NorCal, SoCal

Have a chance: Caribbean, Mid-Atlantic, MOValley, Southwest

Just three teams are favorites, but there are a bunch that are contenders for the last spot and more that have a chance.  I have just four teams without a realistic chance of making the semis.  When looking at most-likely record, 5th place is 2-2 so it will be really competitive to see who steps out of the 10 teams projected to finish 2-2 and try to get a semi-final spot.  Or could we have our first 2-2 semi-finalist?

Given how competitive it may be, there is little chance of four 4-0 teams, but there are still scenarios where there could be five or six.

What do you think?

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 continue this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 3.0 in Scottsdale, 40 & Over 3.5 in Surprise, and 40 & Over 4.5 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 24%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 6.2%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.68 / 3.39
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.65 / 3.49
Favorites: Caribbean, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Middle States, NorCal, Northern, PNW

Have a chance: SoCal

I list just three favorites, but two of the contenders are a fraction away from being favorites, and the other two are nipping at their heels.  So it feels like 7 teams vying for 4 spots.  All 7 have a better than 11% chance of going 4-0, so it should be very competitive.

There are some ways for there to be five 4-0 teams but it seems pretty slim.

What do you think?

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 continue this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 3.0 in San Diego, and 40 & Over 4.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 37%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 14%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1.4%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 83% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.10 / 3.86
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.01 / 3.91
Favorites: Florida, Middle States, Midwest, Texas
Contenders: Missouri Valley, Southern

Have a chance: NorCal

This event appears pretty top heavy with four pretty clear favorites and thus a decent chance of four 4-0 teams.  The overall favorite to make the semis isn't the strongest team, but benefits from the easiest schedule.  There are a few contenders that could spoil it and there is a 1.4% chance of five 4-0 teams.

What do you think?

2025 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Day 2 Recap

Day two is in the books, and despite some continued delays due to rain in Arizona, semi-finalists are set, and even played in some cases.  Here is a recap.

The 2.5 women saw NorCal, Caribbean, and MO Valley all finish 4-0 and were joined by Southern at 3-1.  The simulation nailed it with those four being the top-4 favorites, although it called for just one to have a most likely record of 4-0.

The 3.5 men had Midwest and SoCal finish 4-0, and were joined by PNW and Florida at 3-1.  Midwest was a surprise being just a contender in the simulation, while SoCal and PNW were contenders, and just Florida was a favorite.

The 3.5 women had two 4-0 teams in Texas and Midwest, and then a 3-way tie at 3-1 / 12-8 for two spots with Mid-Atlantic and Florida taking it over New England on fewer sets lost.  Texas and Florida were favorites, but the other two were just in the have a chance category in the simulation.

The 4.0 men was really competitive with several of the top teams playing each other, the end result was Florida at 4-0, then a whopping seven (!) teams at 3-1 with Texas, Eastern, and Intermountain being the ones to advance.  Note that Texas played Florida and Intermountain, and Florida played Eastern, so there is a good chance of a rematch in the final.  The simulation had all four of these teams as favorites and also predicted a bunch of 3-1 teams.

The 4.0 women had three 4-0 teams, those being NorCal, Southern, and Florida, and then SoCal was the best of three 3-1 teams.  The simulation had NorCal, Southern, and SoCal as the top-3 favorites, and Florida was a contender as the 6th pick, so not bad.

Then the 5.0 men had two 4-0 teams in Southwest and Midwest, then PNW and Intermountain joined them at 3-1.  Midwest was a big surprise, the only team not highlighted in the simulation, but PNW and Intermountain were favorites and Southwest just a "has a chance" team.  And this event already played their semis with Southwest and Midwest advancing with 2-1 wins.

Last, the 5.0 women also had two 4-0 teams in Intermountain and Midwest, and SoCal and PNW were the only 3-1 teams so they joined them in the semis.  All four teams were favorites in the simulation so nailed this one too.  They also played their semis with PNW and Midwest advancing.

Good luck to all the teams on Sunday!

2025 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Day 1 Recap

Day 2 of week 1 of the 2025 USTA League Nationals is about to start, so with that a recap of day 1 is in order.

As I understand it, rain did arrive in the Phoenix area causing some delays in the morning and perhaps briefly in the afternoon, but the move to short sets actually allowed some events to get ahead of schedule to guard against more delays today when more rain is forecast.  I heard of some grumbling that they could have gotten everything in under the normal format, but we'll see if getting ahead was a good idea based on today's weather.

On the courts themselves, the 2.5 women saw the top-5 teams in the simulation remain the top-5 forecast teams after day one, but with the ordered juggled somewhat.  Caribbean, Northern, and MO Valley should be locks, and be joined by Southern, or maybe Midwest or upstart PNW in the semis.  There is a 13% chance of four 4-0 teams.

The 3.5 men saw favorites NorCal, Texas, and Florida struggle, but NorCal still could make the semis with SoCal, PNW, and Midwest being minor surprises.  Look out for New England and Middle States too.  The simulation called for a very competitive event and that appears to be happening with virtually no chance of four 4-0 teams, just a 5% chance of three, and a likely 5-way tie for the last spot.

The 3.5 women has the simulation's top-4 picks all still in the top-6 projected finishers, but they are not locks with a full 7 teams having between a 22% and 42% chance of taking the last two semi-finalist spots.  Look for Southern and Texas to be there, but then, who knows, but PNW and Southwest perhaps have the inside track.  Also very competitive though with no chance of four 4-0 teams and just an 8% chance of three.

Unaffected by whether were the 4.0 events in San Diego where the 4.0 men has the top-4 favorites all still in the top-5, but a few already played each other and more do today.  Still, look for Texas, Florida, Eastern, and MO Valley to move on with Mid-Atlantic and NorCal lurking.  But look for perhaps three 3-1 teams and tie-breakers to be important.

The 4.0 women has the simulation's top-3 favorites nearly locked in for the semis in the same order, and contender Florida looking good for a spot as well.  Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, MO Valley, and Texas are lurking though.  There is a 5% chance of four 4-0 teams and 32% chance of three.

Back in Arizona, the 5.0 men had projected mid-pack Southwest leap to the favorite category joining favorites PNW, NorCal, and Intermountain as most likely to advance.  Mid-Atlantic and Midwest will try to have a say though.  There is likely a bit tie at 3-1 for the last spot, probably 5 teams but a 26% chance of six of them being tied.

Last, the 5.0 women has four teams running away with it with PNW, SoCal, Midwest, and Intermountain basically locked in to the semis already, due in part to everyone but Florida having played three matches already.  Just Mid-Atlantic has a small shot at playing spoiler.  There may be a tie at 3-1 for the last spot, but Mid-Atlantic is behind on the courts tie-breaker and even with a sweep could be left out.

I hope the rain stays away today, good luck everyone!