The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with all of the 18 & Over Mixed being played this weekend, plus a few 55 & Over events. I didn't cover the 55 & Over last week so I'll review those events from the past two weekends, all played in Scottsdale.
First from two weekends ago.
The 55 & Over 7.0 Women had two 4-0 teams, Southern and PNW, were joined by 3-1 Southwest and Texas in the semis who beat out Midwest on court record. The two 3-1 teams won the semis each 2-1 with Southwest then beating Texas 2-1 in the final. Southern and Southwest were favorites in the simulation, the other a bit of a surprise.
The 55 & Over 7.0 Men had four 4-0 teams, PNW, Texas, Eastern, and Midwest. In the semis Midwest and Eastern won 2-1 each and then Eastern won the final also 2-1. All four teams were favorites or contenders in the simulation.
The 55 & Over 9.0 Women had 4-0 Florida, Texas, and SoCal were joined by 3-1 Mid-Atlantic who beat out two other 3-1 teams on court record. The semis saw Mid-Atlantic take out Florida 3-0 with Texas winning the other semi 2-1, but there is no winner listed on TennisLink as of now. All four teams were favorites or solid contenders in the simulation.
And the 55 & Over 9.0 men had NorCal and MoValley go 4-0 and were joined by Midwest and Middle States who got in on court record. Middle States and MoValley won semis 2-1, and then MoValley won the final 2-1. Three of these teams were favorites in the simulation, just MoValley was a bit of a surprise.
Then from this weekend.
The 55 & Over 6.0 Women had just one 4-0 team, Southern, with a 6-way tie at 3-1 for three spots. The top-4 all had 9-3 court records and Florida, NorCal, and Caribbean got in on fewer sets lost. Southern and NorCal made the final where NorCal won 2-1. Southern and NorCal were favorites, Caribbean a contender in the simulation.
The 55 & Over 6.0 Men was a similar scenario with 4-0 Southern and six 3-1 teams with the top-3 on court record being SoCal, NorCal, and Intermountain advancing. Intermountain beat SoCal in the final 3-0. The simulation had all four teams in the top-5 expected to make the semis.
The 55 & Over 8.0 Women had three 4-0 teams in NorCal, Hawaii, and SoCal, and then New England was the best 3-1 team. NorCal and SoCal played in the final with SoCal won it all 3-0. NorCal and SoCal were favorites in the simulation, Hawaii a solid contender.
Last, the 55 & Over 8.0 Men had four 4-0 teams in Southern, Caribbean, Midwest, and Eastern. Southern and Caribbean won their semis 2-1 and Southern won the final 2-1. Just Eastern wasn't a favorite or contender in the simulation.
Congratulations to all the champions.
Kevin - It was incredible what the strenght of schedule impact was on the final four. You've written about it, and we experienced it in action for my PNW squad. I had us and Midwest in the top four - but we both had the most brutal schedule with Midwest finishing 1-3 and us finishing 3-1 and beating Intermountain. Norcal and Sourthern had the easiest path. If we have a slightly easier schedule we get in by tie-breaker edging out the eventual champs.
ReplyDeleteShould clarify... this was for the 55+ 6.0 Men
DeleteNot easy but it doesn't look like your schedule was super difficult. You played the #4/5 teams and then 2 of the bottom 5 teams. You needed to take care of MiddleStates 3-0 instead of 2-1. In some ways, it's almost beneficial to play a better team
ReplyDeleteMidwest was 2-2. They needed to take care of 1-3 Eastern 3-0 instead of 2-1, too. And then they lost to New England, which was New England's lone win.
Hawaii/Mid-Atlantic definitely had the hardest schedules. Intermountain probably next toughest and looked like the best team in the end. You were only 1 of 2 teams in the country to have beaten the national champions, so that's still a big accomplishment.
I had intermountain at #2 going in and Middle States rated much higher than bottom five. Regardless, we needed to win at least one of our four 3rd set tie breaks which is on us! I’m pretty happy with my scouting methodology and hope I can put it to the test again someday! LOL
DeleteAs Kevin would no doubt confirm, you can’t use the final standings to make a determination on strength of schedule. My scouting had Intermountain as the #2 team and they only finished fourth because we beat them. Northern was 6th overall and Middle States was 7th. Final standings are a function of schedule strength and performance in the tournament.
ReplyDeleteThere might be other factors involved, but you can most assuredly use the final standings to use as one factor in determining strength of schedule. We might have all these fancy numbers and they might be somewhat accurate but also maybe not, but we really don't know this exactly plus there's always outside factors involved. Performance is all that matters in the end. It looks like there was a lot of parity.
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