Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Updated Men's Estimated NTRP ratings through 5/6/2012 - Some statistics

The new men's Estimated NTRP rating through 5/6 have been posted to the site.

At this point in the year, there have been enough matches that we can look at a few interesting statistics.

First, looking at the average rating by NTRP rating we can see the following:

  • NTRP 2.5 - 2.27 (slightly above the 2.25 that is the expected average in the middle of the range)
  • NTRP 3.0 - 2.72 (slightly below the 2.75 midpoint)
  • NTRP 3.5 - 3.20 (a bit below the 3.25 midpoint)
  • NTRP 4.0 - 3.65 (a bit more below the 3.75 midpoint)
  • NTRP 4.5 - 4.17 (also a bit below the 4.25 midpoint)
  • NTRP 5.0 - 4.64 (also a bit below the 4.75 midpoint)
It is interesting that generally my estimated NTRP for a group is a bit below the expected midpoint.  Now, to be fair, these averages are virtually unchanged from the start of the year, so this is more an artifact of those starting ratings than anything calculated this year, and I also don't know that one should expect the average to actually be at the midpoint.  Still interesting to look at.

On a personal note and to get a glimpse into how the ratings work, I played two USTA matches since the 4/30 ratings, a 6-0, 6-4 loss in doubles at 4.0 and a 6-0, 6-4 win in singles at 3.5.  A simple observation would be that the scores cancel each other out but it doesn't work that way, as it is the score and the opponent that matters.  And in doubles, who your partner is matters too.

In my case, the 4.0 opponents were pretty good so the loss didn't hurt that much.  Additionally, my last match, a 6-2, 6-2 win in doubles at 3.5 over weak opponents which had pulled my rating down didn't count as much now and my rating actually went up after the loss.  Then the singles win at 3.5 was over a decent player and my rating went up a bit more.

The lesson learned is that it isn't just winning or losing that matters to your rating, it doesn't even matter which court you play, rather it is who you play with (in doubles), who you specifically play against and their rating, and the total games won/lost that determines your rating.