As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
With the second weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 18 & Over 4.5 women that is coming up this weekend in Arlington, TX. Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.
The most likely teams to make at least a tie for 4th place are:
- Southern - 98%
- Northern Cal - 95%
- Pacific Northwest - 85%
- Caribbean - 65%
The top-3 teams are pretty big favorites to advance, and they are joined by Caribbean.
I did increase the variability a bit for these predictions for week 2 of Nationals, but the percentages are still pretty high especially for Southern and NorCal. We'll see how well they predict.
In this case, 3 of the top-4 teams are all represented in the list, but the #3 team has the hardest schedule and may struggle to make the semis.
The chances of these teams advancing is very close for the top-2, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Southern would be favored over Caribbean and NorCal over PNW, and Southern the pick to win the final.
Should one of the above teams falter, Missouri Valley and Florida are close behind and most likely to take advantage of it, with Hawaii and New England being long shots that have a chance.
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
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