Sunday, October 30, 2022

Week Five of 2022 USTA League Nationals Recap

Week five of 2022 USTA League Nationals is complete and here is a recap of who won.  See my recap of the round-robin for how the teams got to the semis.

The 55 & Over 6.0 women appears odd on TennisLink with New England advancing over Eastern in a semi, but no scores entered.  The other side had Southern beating Mid-Atlantic and Southern won the final.

The 55 & Over 6.0 men had Midwest beat Northern and Hawaii beat PNW to reach the final where Hawaii won the title.

The 55 & Over 9.0 women had Florida take out SoCal while Eastern beat Texas, and in the final Florida won it all.

The 55 & Over 9.0 men saw Middle States beat Southern and Northern beat Mid-Atlantic, and Northern won the final to take it all.

Moving on to 18 & Over Mixed, the 6.0 level Intermountain beat SoCal and Mid-Atlantic beat Florida and then Intermountain won the final.

The 8.0 level SoCal beat Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean beat Southern before SoCal beat Caribbean to win the final.

Last, the 10.0 level NorCal beat Texas and Southern beat SoCal, with NorCal winning the title.

Congratulations to all the teams!

The last two weekends of Nationals will be just Mixed with 18 & over finishing up next weekend in Arizona, and then 40 & Over Mixed playing the last weekend in Arizona and Orlando.

Saturday, October 29, 2022

2022 USTA League Nationals Week 5 Round-Robin Recap

It is the end of another Saturday of Nationals, and here is how the round-robin played out for this weekend's events.

The 55 & Over 6.0 women had two 4-0 teams in Eastern and Southern, then a 5-way tie at 3-1 for the last two spots and Mid-Atlantic and New England got the spots by having better court records than the others.

The 55 & Over 6.0 men had a 4-way tie at 3-1 for two spots behind 4-0 Northern and PNW, with Hawaii and Midwest both being 10-2 on courts and advancing.

The 55 & Over 9.0 women had two 4-0 teams in Florida and Texas, then only two 3-1 teams in Eastern and SoCal advance.

The 55 & Over 9.0 men had a 6-way tie at 3-1 behind 4-0 Middle States and Northern, with Mid-Atlantic and Southern having better court records than the other four teams.

Moving on to 18 & Over Mixed, the 6.0 level had three 4-0 teams in Intermountain, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic with SoCal getting the last spot over two other 3-1 teams by having a better court record.

The 8.0 level also had three 4-0 teams in SoCal, Southern, and Caribbean, and then Mid-Atlantic was the best of five 3-1 teams having the better court record.

The 10.0 level had two 4-0 teams in Texas and SoCal, and four teams at 3-1 with Southern and NorCal getting the spots, NorCal winning a tie-breaker on one fewer sets lost than Eastern.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow!

Friday, October 28, 2022

Week Five of USTA League Nationals - Rain in Orlando

Week 5 of USTA League Nationals is going on as I write this with the 55 & Over 6.0 and 9.0 in Orlando and Mixed having its first weekend of play with the 18 & Over 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 in Arizona.

Unfortunately, it rained this afternoon in Orlando washing out most of the second matches.  This means there will be short sets and no-ad tomorrow to get all the matches in.

My simulation shows the 6.0 women could have a big tie at 3-1, the 6.0 men could have a 3-way tie for two spots, the 9.0 women could be a tidy four teams at 3-1 or better, and the 9.0 men could have five 3-1 teams for four spots.

For Mixed, the 6.0 level will likely have a tie at 3-1 for two spots with three teams, the 8.0 level still has a chance of five undefeated, but also could end up with six teams at 3-1, and the 10.0 level could have a big tie at 3-1.

Monday, October 24, 2022

Week Four of 2022 USTA League Nationals Recap

Another weekend of USTA League Nationals is in the book and here is how it played out.  See my round-robin recap to see how the teams got to this point.

The 18 & Over 5.0 women had NorCal beating Southern 3-0 to face Midwest in the final who beat Intermountain 2-1.  In the final Midwest won 2-1.

The 18 & Over 5.0 men had Texas win it all beating MOValley 2-1 after those teams beat NorCal and Middle States 2-1 each.

The 40 & Over 3.0 women saw PNW beat Mid-Atlantic and Middle States beat Florida to make the final, the latter in a "2-2 win" fashion, and then Middle States won the final.

The 40 & Over 3.0 men saw NorCal in PNW in the final having beaten Southern and Texas, with NorCal winning the final.

The 55 & Over 8.0 women saw Florida beat New England and Midwest beat Middle States in the semis, with Midwest coming out on top in the final.

Last, the 55 & Over 8.0 men had SoCal and Southern play in the final with SoCal winning it all, with Mid-Atlantic and Florida being beaten in the semis.

Next weekend, 55 & Over wraps up with the 6.0 and 9.0 levels playing in Orlando and Mixed gets going with the 18 & Over 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 levels in Arizona.

Congrats to all those that won, and good luck to those playing this coming weekend.

Sunday, October 23, 2022

2022 USTA League Nationals Week 4 Round-Robin Recap - The tie-breakers rear their ugly head

It is a Sunday in October, and that means USTA League Nationals events are going on and we have teams in the semis and final.  Here is how things stacked up from the first two days of play this weekend.

The last weekend of 18 & Over play has the 5.0 men and women in Arizona.

The women had one 4-0 team and three 3-1 teams advance, those being NorCal, Intermountain, Midwest, and Southern.  The simulation had three of these teams likely to be in the mix so not too bad.

The men had three 4-0 teams in NorCal, MOValley, and Middle States, and Texas was the sole 3-1 team.  The simulation again had three of these teams among those likely to be in the mix.

It is interesting that both the men and women had 5th place at 2-2.  This is in part due to not having the full 17 teams, but still makes for a nice clean top-4 teams.  But both were close to having a tie at 2-2 for the last spot which would have been interesting.

The last weekend of 40 & Over play has the 3.0 men and women in Arizona as well.

The women had three 4-0 teams in PNW, Florida, and Middle States, and then Mid-Atlantic won a tie-breaker at 3-1 having won two more courts than the closest pursuer.

The men had two 4-0 teams in Southern and PNW, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with Texas and NorCal having better court records and advancing.  The simulation had three of these teams in its top-4, and the other top-4 predicted team was in the tie at 3-1.

The 55 & Over events continued in Orlando with the 8.0 men and women playing.

The women unfortunately had the flawed tie-breakers come into play.  No dispute about the top-2 teams with Florida and Midwest both 4-0, and then Middle States was 3-1 and the best record on courts among other 3-1 teams, but the fourth spot went to New England (3-1 / 8-4 / 17-9) over Southern (3-1 / 8-4 / 19-9).  The teams were tied on everything to sets lost (9 each), but despite Southern winning two more sets than New England (19 to 17) the USTA ignores that and goes straight to games lost where New England lost fewer (91 to 98).  This is clearly not equitable as Southern was able to extend several matches they lost to match tie-breaks and thus won more sets, but do not get credit for it.

The USTA knows this is a problem and hasn't addressed it including rejecting a regulations change proposal that would have fixed it.  It is possible to get this right, the ITF does after all.  It happens once or twice every year, so it would be nice for all involved if it was fixed.

Note that Southern's loss was to a 4-0 and top seed Florida team that lost only two courts in the round-robin, one of those to Southern.  New England lost to a Hawaii team that was 1-3, their only win over New England.

However you look at it, hard to justify New England advancing.  Sorry Southern 55+ 8.0 women.

The men had one 4-0 team in SoCal with Florida, Southern, and Mid-Atlantic advancing as 3-1 teams with one other 3-1 team having a worse court record.

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.0 Men

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 40 & Over 3.0 event being held in Arizona.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Men's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 16 teams at the event the USTA created a schedule has a very small chance of five undefeated teams, and a less than 1% chance of four undefeated.

There is an 82% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a four at 29%, five is 25%, and three is 20%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 14-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 25% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 67% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 27% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 3.00 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 3.10.  Schedules will make a difference and three of the top teams likely to advance have the easiest schedules.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  Southern, PNW, Intermountain, and NorCal are solid picks to advance, but there are a bunch of teams lurking including Middle States, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.


Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 5.0 Men

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 18 & Over 5.0 event being held in Arizona.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Men's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 14 teams at the event the USTA there is just a minuscule chance of five undefeated and a less than 1% chance of four.

There is a 66% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a four at 32%, three is 25%, and five is 18%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 12-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 29% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 58% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 31% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.77 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.84.  Schedules will make a difference and three of the top teams likely to advance have the easiest schedules.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  NorCal, Intermountain, Texas, and Florida are solid picks to advance, but PNW, MOValleyEastern, and New England are lurking.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.


Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 5.0 Women

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 18 & Over 5.0 event being held in Arizona.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Women's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With just 11 teams at the event the USTA never creates the schedule is such that there can be at most three undefeated teams and just a 1% chance of that.  There is a 19% chance of two undefeated.

There is an 57% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 5 at 41%, four is 32%, and six is 14%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 11-way tie is theoretically possible, all teams at 2-2, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be quite large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 26% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 56% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 30% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.74 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.83.  Schedules will make a difference and three of the top teams likely to advance have the easiest schedules.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  Texas, PNW, SoCal, and Intermountain are solid picks to advance, but Southern, NorCal, and Middle States are lurking.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.


Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Week Three of 2022 USTA League Nationals Recap

I am late writing this recap, but A) there was a lot to write about, and B) everything wasn't official for a few days.

It was an eventful weekend, and not only because it was the busiest weekend of Nationals with four different events going.  The 18 & Over division continued with the 3.0 and 4.0 levels in two different Arizona locations, the 40 & Over 4.5s in Oklahoma City, and 55 & Over got started with the 7.0 level in Orlando.

Let's start with the easy ones.

The 55 & Over 7.0 women had a reasonably tidy set of four semi-finalists with Florida and PNW 4-0 and Southern and MOValley 3-1 and a court ahead of the closest pursuer.  Just PNW was a bit of a surprise, the simulation had the other three among the favorites.  MOValley and Southern won their semis and Southern took the title.

The 7.0 men had four undefeated teams in SoCal, Texas, New England, and Southern, with that last team winning every match 2-1.  New England was the minor surprise here, the other three all among the favorites in the simulation.  SoCal and Texas won to play the final where SoCal won.

Next, the 40 & Over 4.5 women saw three 4-0 teams in Hawaii, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic, joined by New England.  Three of these teams were in the simulation's top-7.  New England and Mid-Atlantic won to face in the final with Mid-Atlantic winning, just one week after a similar team won 18 & Over 4.5, so quite a run.

The 4.5 men had four 4-0 teams in Southern, NorCal, Florida, and SoCal advancing.  All four teams were in the simulation's top-6.  The semis saw two 2-2 "wins" with SoCal beating Southern on the games tie-breaker and Florida beating NorCal the same way.  Florida then won the final 3-1.

Now, it gets more interesting.  Why you ask?  Well, it rained in Arizona.  And interestingly despite the two sites being on other sides of Phoenix less than an hour apart, the 4.0 events were more severely affected, not being able to get more than one set of matches completed on Saturday.  The 3.0 events I believe went to short sets, but did manage to get their round-robin done and semis/finals played on Sunday.

For the 3.0 women, there were three 4-0 teams in Southern, PNW, and Caribbean, with Intermountain beating out NorCal for the last spot on the sets tie-breaker.  Interestingly, NorCal won a far higher percentage of games but lost two more sets.  Three of these were in the favorites from the simulation.  The semis saw Southern and Caribbean both win 3-2 and Southern took the title.

The 3.0 men had three 4-0 teams with a clearly best 3-1 team advancing in fourth.  Southern beat Midwest 3-2 and Intermountain did the same vs PNW.  In the final, Southern won 3-2.

Now, the 4.0 event.  With only one time-slot completed and that just men, and the second slot started but not finished, the rain came.  They got back out briefly to try to play again but that was halted and play was called for the day.  With so little of day two played, there was no way to play the event as originally planned.  I had ideas about completing a few matches and taking the top-8 to quarter-finals, and some other ideas too after teams completed their third matches, but the USTA elected to simply have everyone play short set matches and play out the schedule and to name the top-4 teams in the standings the first thru fourth place finishers.  This resulted in everyone getting their minimum four matches which was good, but did not allow the champ to be decided head to head on the court.

For the 4.0 women though, it didn't even work out as well as they had hoped, as what I feared, some teams not showing up for their last match or defaulting courts, happened.  When this happens it messes with standings and teams that got full match defaults benefit while the teams that had to play the team that defaulted are penalized in the standings, so some team matches that were completed were disregarded in order to make things equitable.  But with the defaults and disregarded matches, this left some teams with just three matches played, and one with just two.  TennisLink's standings are frankly broken, as they show 3-1 teams ahead of a 3-0 team, so the USTA told teams they'd figure it out in a day or two and notify teams the results.  I believe some teams were allowed to take pictures with several different banners to cover their bases on what they would decide.

Ultimately, while TennisLink still shows the order as SoCal, New England, Southwest (all 4-0) with MOValley fourth at 3-1 and a 3-0 PNW team listed as 7th, the order they told teams they arrived at was SoCal, Southwest, New England, and PNW.  I think this factored in reversing some matches for the defaulting teams, but also gave PNW credit for being undefeated.  It is sad that with four undefeated teams it couldn't be decided on the court.

The 4.0 men did complete their round-robin without any full team defaults, and they had three 4-0 teams in Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, and SoCal at 4-0 with Southern at 3-1.  This was the order which again was sad given the undefeated teams were 19-1, 18-2, and 17-3 on courts.  Yes, Mid-Atlantic had an easier schedule, but it would have been nice to see this decided on the court.

So there you have it.  A strange weekend of Nationals, but on to the next with 40 & Over and 18 & Over both wrapping up with 40 & Over 3.0 in Surprise and 18 & Over 5.0 in Scottsdale.  55 & Over continues in Orlando with the 8.0 level.

Sunday, October 16, 2022

An idea for the 40 & Over 4.0 men

I wrote about the rain and its impact on the schedule, and offered some ideas for how to determine a champ yesterday.

A new idea I had today.  There are/were four undefeated teams, but two of them, Intermountain and Eastern play so that would leave three undefeated teams, if Mid-Atlantic wins vs Caribbean, or two if they lose.  At this point, just take the top-2 teams in the standings and have them play their 4th match against each other to determine the champ.  The scheduled opponents for those two teams could play each other for their 4th so there is really no impact to matches played, but we get some clarity by having the top-2 teams play each other.

Yes, if there are three teams 3-0 one of them is left out.  But I think this approach is better than having them all finish 4-0 without having played each other, it at least has the top two teams by the standings play head to head.

What do you think?

I'm confident this won't happen as it is too late to adjust for it I'm sure, but I would have loved to see it.

Saturday, October 15, 2022

2022 USTA League Nationals Week 3 Round-Robin Recap - Sort of

The round-robin phase of week 3 of USTA League Nationals is (supposed to be) over.  I say that because there was rain at some events in Arizona, and the 18 & Over 4.0 men and women are not nearly complete and the 3.0 got farther but isn't complete.

For the 18 & Over 4.0 women, they didn't get any matches completed today so all the teams have only two matches complete.  The men got five matches completed today leaving a bunch of teams having played just two matches.  I wrote a few hours ago several ideas for how to finish the event, my preferred being to find a way to determine a top-8 equitably and have quarters, semis, and the final on Sunday, but the USTA appears to have elected to try to just finish the round-robin on Sunday and determine 1st thru 4th based on the standings with no semis or final.

Doing this does give all the teams an opportunity to get the four guaranteed matches they came to play, but I have concerns about the format as I fear some players/teams that lost early on Saturday and are 0-3 already made plans to leave and may default their matches on Sunday.  Another 0-2 team may do the same.  This can upset the competitive integrity of the event and when the champion will be determined from standings and not head to head play, that is an issue.  We'll see how it plays out, but if some teams default or mail it in, the teams that care to play may effectively be those in my quarterfinals option and it has the benefit of deciding things head to head instead of based on who had an easier schedule and look the best in the standings.

The 18 & over 3.0 event was also in Arizona but somehow got more matches in but still has quite a few to go.  The women have five teams that have finished round-robin, but 12 that haven't.  The men have nine that are done but that leaves eight with a match still to play.  I have not heard how they are going to finish.  It may be more reasonable to squeeze in the remaining matches and still have semis and a final, but I'm not sure if they'll do that.

The 40 & Over 4.5 event has not had any drama that I'm aware of and they do have semi-finalists set.  The women have three 4-0 teams in Hawaii, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic, with New England joining them at 3-1 having beat out Texas by one court in the tie-breaker.  For the men there were four 4-0 teams with Southern, NorCal, Florida, and SoCal advancing.

The 55 & Over 7.0 event was in Orlando.  The women have Florida and PNW as 4-0 teams advancing with 3-1 teams Southern and MOValley beating out SoCal and Southwest on court record.  The men have four 4-0 teams in SoCal, Texas, New England, and Southern.  Southern made it by winning every match 2-1 and 8-4 on courts, and there were two 3-1 teams that were 9-3 on courts behind them.

We'll see how the Arizona events wrap up tomorrow!

Rain in Arizona wreaks havoc with the 18 & Over 4.0 schedule

As I write this, it is raining in Arizona and the 18 & Over 4.0 events are woefully behind schedule.  In fact, with the forecast for rain to continue into the evening the players have been told there will be no more matches today and a plan will be communicated at 8pm tonight.

The men only had 5 matches completed this morning and it appears none of the women's matches have been completed.  The question now is how to finish?

It is unlikely they can come up with a schedule or format that allows completing all of the matches for all the teams.  And those that are 0-2, 0-3, or 1-2 likely aren't terribly interested in sticking around and changing travel plans.

My suggestion would be to figure out a way to reasonably identify the four best teams with the minimum additional matches played.

For the men, there are two 3-0 teams, SoCal and Eastern, and with only two other 2-0 teams, the 3-0 teams should be in the semis.  The two 2-0 teams, Intermountain and Mid-Atlantic, are certainly candidates for selection, but given the standings, there is really just one other team, Florida, who would have an argument to be considered with them.  Florida is 2-1 and 11-4 on courts and it is possible that if Intermountain or Mid-Atlantic lost 4-1, they'd be tied with Florida and the tie could be broken.  None of the other teams are or can get to 2-1 and 11-4.  NorCal, Caribbean, and Midwest could each get to 2-1 but Caribbean has already lost a court vs Mid-Atlantic so they'd be at best 9-6 on courts, and NorCal and Midwest could get to 10-5 on courts so are already eliminated as Florida and Mid-Atlantic are already ahead of that.

So, I'd suggest Mid-Atlantic finish their match with Caribbean to see if they can win another court and be ahead of Florida.  If they do, or they finish tied at 2-1 / 11-4, the standings tie-breaker is used to break the tie and whoever wins that gets the 3rd semi spot.

It is trickier with Intermountain.  Their third match was to be against Eastern and it isn't really fair to make Eastern play a fourth match.  Unless you want to make the Eastern/Intermountain match a way to make IM play a third match and be a "play-in" match to make the top-4.  I don't really like this idea.

What might be better is to have Intermountain play any other team, say Hawaii since that was to be their fourth match, and as soon as they win two courts they are in, or if they only win one court the tie-breaker with Florida and/or Mid-Atlantic is done.

One last option would be to take the standings as is and take the top-5 and two of them play a play-in match to make the semis.  You could have Intermountain and Mid-Atlantic play since they are the ones with just two matches needing a third to be fairly compared with the teams ahead of them.  Or have Florida play in the play-in as they have a loss vs Eastern as they have the most courts lost.

Or, one other idea.  Take the top-8 in the standings right now and do quarterfinals.  This would add 2-1 teams Southern, Northern, and New England.  This is a bit unfair to the 1-1 teams that didn't have a chance to get to 2-1, but those teams had no shot making the top four or five under the above options.  Or you could try to play/complete the matches for the 1-1 teams first thing in the morning and then take the top eight to the quarterfinals.

The women is a different story with none completed.  I'll write another blog on them shortly.


Update: Here is my best idea.

Plan to take the top-8 to the quarterfinals.

To get the top-8 as fairly as possible, you need the 1-1 teams to play/finish their 3rd matches.

Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean already started, have them finish.  Mid-Atlantic is already in the top-8, but Caribbean could find their way in if they win.

NorCal and Hawaii is I think already started, have them finish.  NorCal could find their way into the top-8

Texas and Midwest is I think already started, have them finish.  Both are 1-1 and could find their way in.

That is it, once those are finished, take the top-8 in the standings to quarterfinals.  Use short set/fast-four format for the quarters and semis, if time allows, use normal sets for the final.

Friday, October 14, 2022

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Women

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 40 & Over 4.5 event being held in Oklahoma City.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Women's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is no chance of six undefeated and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is only a 2% chance of four undefeated, so we may see a very competitive event.

There is an 88% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 29%, three is 24%, and five is 21%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 14-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 25% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 69% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 26% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.25 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.34.  Schedules will make a difference and two of the top teams likely to advance have the easiest schedules.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  Southern, Caribbean, Florida, and SoCal are solid picks to advance, but Mid-Atlantic and Eastern are very close.  New England, Middle States, and NorCal could make some noise if things go their way.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.


Thursday, October 13, 2022

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Men

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 40 & Over 4.5 event being held in Oklahoma City.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Men's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is a very small chance of six undefeated (1 of the million simulations) and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is a 5% chance of four undefeated, so we may see a very competitive event.

There is an 86% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 29%, three is 26%, and five is 21%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 13-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 24% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 71% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 25% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.32 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.46.  Schedules will make a difference and three of the top teams likely to advance have the easiest schedules.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  NorCal, Northern, Southern, and Intermountain are solid picks to advance, but SoCal, Florida, and Eastern are lurking.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.


Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Women

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 18 & Over 4.0 event being held in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Women's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is a very small chance of six undefeated (2 of the million simulations) and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is also less than a 1% chance of four undefeated, so we may see a very competitive event.

There is an 85% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 28%, five is 26%, and three is 16%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 15-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 27% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 65% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 28% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 3.91 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 3.96.  This is perhaps the most balanced schedule we've seen!

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  SoCal, New England, Intermountain, and Missouri Valley are solid picks to advance but Southern is close behind.  Others standing by to move up with an upset or two include Southwest, Eastern, Midwest, and PNW.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.0 Men

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 18 & Over 3.0 event being held in Scottsdale, AZ.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Men's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is a very small chance of six undefeated (3 of the million simulations) and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is a 1% chance of four undefeated, so we may see a very competitive event.

There is an 87% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 28%, five is 26%, and six and three are 16%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 15-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 28% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 64% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 29% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 3.09 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 3.18.  Schedules will make a difference.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  NorCal, Southwest, Middle States, Intermountain, and Midwest are solid picks to advance but that is five teams so something has got to give.  The simulation has them all with most likely records of 3-1 so winning courts and sets will be key.  Should any of those stumble, Texas, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, and SoCal could sneak in.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.


Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 18 & over 3.0 Women

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 18 & Over 3.0 event being held in Scottsdale, AZ.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Women's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is a very small chance of six undefeated (5 of the million simulations) and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is a 1% chance of four undefeated, so we may see a very competitive event.

There is an 89% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 27%, five is also 27%, and six is 17%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 15-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 29% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 63% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 30% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 2.98 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 3.11.  Schedules will make a difference.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  Southern, Middle States, Texas, NorCal, and Missour Valley are solid picks to advance but that is five teams so something has got to give.  The simulation has them all with most likely records of 3-1 so winning courts and sets will be key.  Should any of those stumble, Caribbean, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Intermountain could sneak in.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.


Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 18 & Over 4.0 event being held in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Men's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is a very small chance of six undefeated (354 of the million simulations) and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is a 9% chance of four undefeated, so we may see a very competitive event.

There is an 88% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 28%, five is 25%, and three is 20%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 14-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 27% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 67% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 27% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 3.91 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.06.  Schedules will make a difference.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  Mid-Atlantic, SoCal, TexasNorCal, and Intermountain are solid picks to advance but that is five teams so something has got to give.  The simulation has the last three of those along with Midwest most likely to be 3-1 so winning courts and sets will be key.  Should any of those stumble, Florida and Northern could sneak in.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Visualizing USTA League Nationals Schedules - 18 & Over 4.0 men

Next up in my series of posts visualizing the 2022 USTA League Nationals schedules is the 18 & Over 4.0 men which will be played the third weekend of Nationals.


This schedule looks reasonably random but as with others, there are some mini-pods.

NorCal, Northern, and Caribbean all play each other, Eastern, PNW, and Midwest all play each other, and Southwest, SoCal, and Southern do as well, with Middle States playing Southern, and SoCal.

Visualizing USTA League Nationals Schedules - 18 & Over 4.0 women

Next up in my series of posts visualizing the 2022 USTA League Nationals schedules is the 18 & Over 4.0 women which will be played the third weekend of Nationals.


This schedule looks reasonably random but as with others, there are some mini-pods.

Hawaii, Middle States, and SoCal all play each other, as do Intermountain, Southwest, and Midwest.  Also, Caribbean, Florida, and New England all do.

Monday, October 10, 2022

Visualizing USTA League Nationals Schedules - 18 & Over 3.0 men

Next up in my series of posts visualizing the 2022 USTA League Nationals schedules is the 18 & Over 3.0 men which will be played the third weekend of Nationals.


This schedule looks reasonably random but as with others, there are some mini-pods.

Florida, SoCal, and Middle States all play each other, and Intermountain plays Florida and Middle States.  Caribbean, Midwest, and Southwest all play each other.  Then Texas, Missouri Valley, and Mid-Atlantic all play each other, and Northern, Hawaii, NorCal, and PNW all play two of each other.

Visualizing USTA League Nationals Schedules - 18 & Over 3.0 women

Next up in my series of posts visualizing the 2022 USTA League Nationals schedules is the 18 & Over 3.0 women which will be played the third weekend of Nationals.


This schedule looks reasonably random but as with others, there are some mini-pods.

Caribbean, Intermountain, and Northern all play each other, and Florida plays Caribbean and Northern.  NorCal, Missouri Valley, and Hawaii all play each other.  Then Mid-Atlantic plays Middle States and Eastern, Middle States plays PNW, and PNW plays Eastern.

Sunday, October 9, 2022

Week Two of 2022 USTA League Nationals Recap

Week two of 2022 USTA League Nationals is in the books and we have six new National Champs.  See my round-robin recap to see how the semi-finalists got there.

The 18 & Over division continued with the 4.5 men and women playing in Arizona.

The 4.5 women was won by Mid-Atlantic with a 4-1 decision over Florida, which was a rematch of each team's first match where Mid-Atlantic won 3-2.  Southern and NorCal were the other semifinalists.

The 4.5 men was won by Texas winning 3-2 over Midwest.  NorCal and Mid-Atlantic had been dispatched in the semis.

The 40 & over got started this week with the 3.5 level in Arizona.

The 3.5 women was won by SoCal with a 2-2 "win" over NorCal.  The semis were won over Intermountain and Eastern, both 2-2 "wins" as well.  Yes, the 2-2 tie reared its ugly head a bunch this weekend.

The 3.5 men was won by Intermountain with a score of, wait for it, 2-2, over Texas.  They had beaten Florida and Southern in the semis.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women was won by NorCal who beat Midwest, wait for it, by the score of 2-2.  Southern and Intermountain were beaten in the semis by the score of, wait for it, 2-2 each.

The 4.0 men was won by Southern who took out Midwest by a 3-1 score.  Southern had beaten New England by a, wait for it, 2-2 score, and Midwest beat Hawaii 3-1.

That makes 12 matches played in the 40 & Over semis/finals and a full 2/3 of them have been 2-2 ties.

Congratulations to six more National Champs!

Another day, more 2-2 "wins" at USTA League Nationals - The majority of 40 & Over Nationals semis end as 2-2 ties!

This weekend started the 40 & Over events at this year's USTA League Nationals, and I wrote about the matches ending in 2-2 ties from the round-robin phase.

You would hope that the semis and final would have clear wins and not have an unsatisfying/frustrating 2-2 win/loss, but when you get to the semis, the teams are closely matched and the chances of it happening go up.

In fact, at the 40 & Over 4.0 women's event, it happened in both semis!

In one, Midwest played Intermountain and won 2-2 when they won the sets lost tie-breaker by winning one match in straight-sets while both losses were in match tie-breaks.

In the other, NorCal beat Southern 2-2, this one had all the matches won in straight-sets so it went to the games lost tie-breaker, but that was also tied, so NorCal won because they won court 1 doubles.  That is really tough for Southern.

And what do you know, the 40 & Over 3.5 women's event also had it happen in both semis!

In the first, SoCal beat Intermountain 2-2 when they won both of their wins in straights while extending a loss to a match tie-break.

In the other, NorCal beat Eastern 2-2, this one going to the games lost tie-breaker as all the matches were won in straight sets, and NorCal lost 4 fewer games so advanced.

For the men at the 4.0 event, one semi was won 2-2 when Southern beat New England when they extended one of their lost courts to a match tie-break while winning both of their courts in straight-sets.

The men's 3.5 event appears to have had both semis decided by 3-1 margins.

So, of the eight semis, a full five of them were tied 2-2 and had to be broken by tie-breakers, one of them going all the way to who won court 1.  Everyone new the rules going in, but I still think it is an unsatisfying way of determining a winner.

Saturday, October 8, 2022

2022 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Round-Robin Recap

The round-robin phase of this weekend's Nationals is complete, here is a recap.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women had a three 4-0 teams and a four-way tie at 3-1 for the last spot with Intermountain winning the tie-breaker to join Midwest, NorCal, and Southern in the semis.  NorCal and Southern were both solid picks in the simulation, while Midwest and Intermountain were listed as good chance to find their way in.

The 40 & Over 4.0 men had a nice four 4-0 teams advance with Hawaii, Southern, New England, and Midwest.  The simulation didn't do so great here, just having Southern and Midwest as contenders.  Note that 40 & Over plays 4 courts and there were several 2-2 "wins", one being where had Texas won a set 6-2 instead of 6-4, they would have won and advanced to the semis.

The 40 & Over 3.5 women had three 4-0 teams in Intermountain, NorCal, and Eastern, and then a three-way tie at 3-1 for the last spot with SoCal taking it with the best court record over Florida and Texas.  The simulation had two of the teams advancing, and another in the running.

The 40 & Over 3.5 men had two 4-0 teams in Florida and Texas, and then a five-way tie at 3-1 for the last two spots.  Southern and Intermountain had the best court records and advanced over Mid-Atlantic, PNW, and Midwest.  This was a bit of a bummer of Mid-Atlantic and Midwest as they had two of the tougher schedules, especially compared to Southern.  The simulation had three of the four teams as the top-3 picks to advance missing out on just Florida.

The 18 & Over 4.5 women was primed to have a big tie at 3-1 with eight teams at 2-1 going into the final match and had a five-way tie at 3-1 behind a 4-0 SouthernNorCal, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic won the tie-breaker to take the last three spots.  The simulation had NorCal and Florida as in with Southern likely in, and Mid-Atlantic as lurking, so a pretty good call.

Last, the 18 & Over 4.5 men had a tidy four 4-0 teams advance with Texas, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and NorCal advancing, but we were one team match away from having a fifth 4-0 team meaning one would have been sent home.  The simulation had two of the teams as picks with a third being in the hunt.

Good luck to all tomorrow!