As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
With the fourth weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 40 & Over 4.0 men that is coming up this weekend in Las Vegas, NV.
The simulation is pretty standard for this event, three teams very likely to at least make a tie for the semis, but interestingly just two teams expected to be 3-1 in a tie for fourth, and a big group of teams, 7, at 2-2. There is an 11% chance of four undefeated, but even though there is a big group at 2-2 a very slim chance of the tie for 4th there. Here are the four most likely:
- New England - 97%
- Florida - 95%
- Middle States - 93%
- Northern - 62%
A few sections that don't often make the semis here in New England and Northern, and a few traditional semi-finalists in Florida and Middle States. The first three are really close so tie-breakers will come into play to decide seeds, but if they are seeded as I list, New England is the pick over Northern and Florida over Middle States, Florida the favorite to win it all.
Should one of the above teams falter, Southern is close to Northern, and Missouri Valley, SoCal, and Texas have good shots, NorCal the longshot.
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
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