Monday, October 15, 2018

Top-8 observations from the second weekend of the new USTA League Nationals format

The second weekend of 2018 USTA League Nationals was this weekend with the 18 & Over 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, and 4.5 levels playing in Arlington, TX, Las Vegas, NV, and Orlando, FL.  Given the new format for Nationals this year, I wrote some thoughts last week and more were in order.  Here are my top-8.

First, the new format gives all teams at least 4 matches and last week everyone played them, but this week two men's 3.5 teams didn't, just not playing their last match.  I'm not sure why but guessing injuries or fatigue in what was a match not influencing who made the semis.  But this raises the question of what happens when a team is tired and doesn't want to play and it does affect the semis?

Second, we still haven't had any events finish with only undefeated teams in the semis.  While it was possible for this to happen, and it was even possible to end up with 5 or more undefeated sending an undefeated team home, it didn't happen and we had ties for 4th place and the last semi spot.

Third, the ties continue to be all with 3-1 records.  While it was possible for ties to happen with 2-2 records, it did not happen this weekend.

Fourth, the size of the ties on record has almost always been 4 or 5 teams which is in line with my simulations, just 3 teams and 6 teams once each.  It is possible for these ties to be significantly larger though.

Fifth, the tie-breakers were then important.  The tie-breaker has usually been sets lost, but we had a head-to-head tie-breaker this weekend where if sets lost would have been used the teams would have been swapped.  We also had a team that would have won the head-to-head tie-breaker and make the semis but didn't as they were one game back on individual courts which is used first.  We did not see the flawed tie-breaker come into play again.

Sixth, and perhaps I should have led with this, we had major weather issues in Arlington affect play and require short to ultra short playing formats.  Just 4 of 72 team matches played had normal/full scoring with all the matches on day 1 using a modified Fast-4 format and all day 2 matches being a single first to 4 set!  The new format has more matches to play, so having good weather is even more important than before and Arlington was bit this week.

Seventh, sections making the semis were fairly spread out, although Caribbean always does well in 2.5-3.5 and did so here, the Midwest came through across levels especially 4.5.  Here are the counts:
  • Caribbean - 2.5W, 3.0W, 3.0M, 3.5W
  • Midwest - 2.5W, 3.5W, 4.5W, 4.5M
  • Southern - 3.0M, 3.5W, 3.5M, 4.5W
  • Intermountain - 3.0W, 3.0M, 3.5M
  • NorCal - 3.0W, 3.5M, 4.5M
  • Florida - 3.5W, 3.5M
  • New England - 2.5W, 4.5W
  • Pacific NW - 2.5W, 3.0M
  • SoCal - 3.0W, 4.5M
  • Texas - 4.5W, 4.5M

Eighth, despite all the excitement of this weekend, there are more possibilities to come including:
  • Rain is forecast again for Arlington this weekend
  • Four undefeated teams make the semis meaning no controversy or tie-breakers
  • Five teams go undefeated and one is sent home without making the semis which would be unfortunate
  • A seven or more way tie for a semi-final spot and the confusion and controversy that might ensue
  • A tie at 2-2 for a semi-final spot, and won't that be a doozy
  • More than two teams in a tie having to go to the really flawed games lost tie-breaker
  • Teams being tied on the games lost tie-breaker and going to the feared "method to be determined by the Championship Committee" to break the tie
  • A team scheduled to be there doesn't show up and the USTA has to change the schedule on the fly

So there is still a lot to look forward to as we move into 40 & Over events.  Stay tuned for more simulations and predictions this week.  And if you want even more info to help scout opponents and plan your line-ups, contact me about flight or team reports.

No comments:

Post a Comment