Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over 4.5 men

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

With the second weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 18 & Over 4.5 men that is coming up this weekend in Arlington, TX.  Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.

The most likely teams to make at least a tie for 4th place are:
  • Southern Cal - 88%
  • Northern - 79%
  • Florida - 69%
  • Missouri Valley - 65%

These numbers are not as high as some other events, but still SoCal is a solid favorite to make the semis.

I did increase the variability a bit for these predictions for week 2 of Nationals, but the percentages are still pretty high especially for SoCal.  We'll see how well they predict.

In this case, 3 of the top-4 teams are all represented in the list, #4 has a tougher schedule and falls down the predicted record list a bit.

The chances of these teams advancing are pretty straight-forward but #3 and #4 are  close, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, SoCal would be favored MoValley and Florida over Eastern, and SoCal the narrow pick to win the final.

Should one of the above teams falter, Caribbean and Southern are close behind and most likely to take advantage of it, with Texas a team that could cause trouble if they can win some close ones.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

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