As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
With the fourth weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 40 & Over 4.0 women that is coming up this weekend in Las Vegas, NV.
This could possibly be the closest contested event yet as while a number of teams do have a good shot to finish undefeated, and thus one or more very well may, no team has a most likely record better than 3-1. In fact, seven teams have a most likely record of 3-1 and five more are 2-2. Chances are someone will finish undefeated, but there could be a log jam at 3-1 for the last semi spot.
Here are the chances of those seven teams finishing in at least a tie for 4th:
- Northern - 76%
- Florida - 74%
- Southern Cal - 70%
- Eastern - 69%
- Northern Cal - 68%
- New England - 58%
- Hawaii - 53%
That is pretty tight, just a court here and there could be the difference. But if the top-4 above make the semis, Northern would be the pick over Eastern and Florida over Southern Cal, Northern the pick to win it all.
Should one of the above teams falter, Pacific NW, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, Middle States, and Intermountain are all grouped very close and one could get to 3-1 and be in the mix.
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
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