Results from the fifth weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals - How did the predictions do?

The fifth weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals is complete, and it is time for the summary and check on how the predictions did.

The 55 & Over 6.0 and 9.0 were played in Orlando and at the 6.0 level for the women, SoCal, Southwest, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic made the semis.  Three of those teams were in my projected top-5 and all four were in my top-7.  SoCal and Florida both won 2-1 to make it to the final with SoCal winning 2-1, and they were the top pick to win it all in the simulation.

The 6.0 men had Southern, Midwest, Middle States, and SoCal make the semis, two in my top-4 and all four in my top-8.  SoCal and Midwest both won their semis 2-1 and Midwest took the final. 

At 9.0, the women's flight saw Southern, Florida, Eastern, and Mid-Atlantic make the semis, all four in my simulation's top-5.  Southern and Florida made the final where Florida won 2-1 to take the title.

The 9.0 men had Southern, SoCal, Middle States, and Intermountain advance to the semis, all four in my simulation's top-6.  Southern and SoCal won their semis and then SoCal won the final.

18 & Over Mixed got going in Arizona with the 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 levels playing.

The 6.0 level had Intermountain, SoCal, Texas, and Southern make the semis, all four of those in my top-7.  Intermountain and SoCal, the two in my top-7, won their semis with Intermountain taking the title.

The 8.0 level had SoCal, Intermountain, Hawaii, and NorCal advance to the semis, all in my top-4!  NorCal and Hawaii won their semis and NorCal took the title.

The 10.0 level saw New England, SoCal, NorCal, and Eastern make the semis, all four in my top-5.  Eastern and NorCal won their semis with Eastern taking the title.

Congratulations to this weekend's champs.

A loss for PNW USTA is a gain for USTA National

If you are a regular reader of my blog, you know I live in the Seattle area and thus play in the Pacific Northwest section of the USTA.  Playing in the PNW, I've had the opportunity to interact with local and section USTA staff including Adam Hutchinson who over the years has grown to be responsible for effectively all competition, Adults and Juniors, in the PNW.  I worked on a regulations change proposal with Adam and he has been a great resource for other questions and, in my opinion and despite occasionally not agreeing on everything, has done a great job with league play in my section.

I learned yesterday that, unfortunately, Adam is leaving the PNW section, but fortunately, he is staying with the USTA and moving to National to be responsible for adult competition including league and tournament play.

Adam has been an advocate for growing the game, and PNW is one of the few sections to have had USTA League participation grow recently, team count was up 8% from 2014 to 2019 and player count up 5%, despite the general trend the other direction across all of USTA League play, player count down almost 10% over the same period.  So while I'm sorry to see him leave PNW, I'm encouraged that National is getting someone with a proven record of running leagues and tournaments in an area that has shown growth.

Good luck Adam and don't forget PNW way off in the other corner of the country!

Another big weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals starts tomorrow

The 2021 edition of USTA League Nationals has been ongoing this month and we enter the fifth weekend with a pretty big schedule.  While it is only at two venues, there are multiple levels being played at each so a lot of tennis will be played and five champions will be crowned.

The 55 & Over Nationals continue in Orlando with the last of the division's levels, 6.0 and 9.0, being played.  While in Surprise the 18 & Over Mixed begins with each of the 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 levels being contested.

Good luck to all playing this weekend!

Results from the fourth weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals - How did the predictions do?

 The fourth weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals is complete, and it is time for the summary and check on how the predictions did.

The 55 & Over 8.0 was played in Orlando and for the women, Florida, MoValley, Middle States, and SoCal made the semis.  Three of those teams were in my projected top-7.  Florida and Middle States played in the final with Florida winning 3-0, and they were the second pick to win it all in the simulation.

The men had Southern, Hawaii, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic making the semis.  The winners of the semis were SoCal and Southern, with SoCal winning the final 2-1, and SoCal was the predicted winner of my simulation.

The 40 & Over 3.0 was played in Surprise, AZ and for the women, Florida, PNW, Midwest, and Eastern made the semis, all undefeated, all four of these in my projected top-5.  The other team in my top-5, Intermountain, finished 5th so the predictions had all of the top-5.  The semis had Eastern and PNW winning, with PNW winning it all.

The men had PNW, Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Florida in the semis, all undefeated, two of these being in the projected top-4, two being a surprise.  Florida and Eastern won their semis and Eastern won it all.

Congratulations to this weekend's champs.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.0 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the fourth weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 3.0 level is being played in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 3.0 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 15
5+ undefeated: 0%
4 undefeated: <1%
Tie for 4th: 82%
Size of tie: 4 - 30%, 5 - 24%, 3 - 21%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 26%, 2 teams 67%, 3 teams 27%
Easiest schedule: 3.03
Toughest schedule: 3.10
Likely semi-finalists: Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, Eastern
Contenders: Middle States, Southwest, Texas, Midwest

There are likely a few 4-0 teams and 3-1 should be required to make the semis.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

2021 USTA League Nationals continues this weekend

The 2021 edition of USTA League Nationals just wrapped up week three which  means week four is on the horizon.  It isn't going to be nearly as busy, but week three was the busiest with four events going on simultaneously.

This coming weekend finds the last 40 & Over event being played in Surprise, AZ while the 55 & Over continues in Orlando with the 8.0 level being played there.

Stay tuned for some predictions from my simulations and other info as the week progresses.

How is the 4-court format working for 2021 40 & Over Nationals? How are the ties being handled?

The USTA changed the 40 & Over division to a four court format for 2020, but with no Nationals last year, this year's Nationals was the first chance for it to be used.  The big issue is with four courts, there is a clear possibility, if not significant probability, that matches will end in 2-2 ties.  If that happens, who wins?

I wrote about how it all works a couple weeks ago, but now with most of the 40 & Over events complete, we can take a look at how things have played out.

So far, there have been 202 team matches played at 40 & Over Nationals, and of these, 64 have ended tied 2-2 on courts.  Of these, 38 had a winner declared based on who lost the fewest sets.  That leaves 26 matches going to the next tie-breaker, loser of the fewest games where 24 were decided.  That leaves two matched tied on all the criteria, which means the winner is the team that won court 1 doubles.

Note, there were eight other matches that were within a game or two of being full ties and having to go to the court 1 doubles winner tie-breaker.

First, regular readers of my blog know I've been critical of the tie-breakers the USTA uses for standings at Nationals where sets and games lost are used.  Let me say that in the case of a head-to-head match, the tie-breakers are not "flawed" and are in fact objective and not omitting information that should be used.

Note however that when the USTA first made the change to four courts, they did not have a provision to determine a winner if tied on games lost, and had to add using the winner of court 1 doubles after the fact and after a number of league matches ended in complete ties.

That said, in my opinion, it isn't terribly satisfying to have a match determined not by who wins the most courts, but instead by inspecting finer grained statistics.  One of the beauties of tennis and its scoring system is that winning a match doesn't require winning the most games or points, and winning a match in a super tie-break is a win just like a lopsided straight-sets win is.  But when there are an even number of courts and 2-2 ties can happen, it forces the use of these tie-breakers fundamentally changing the strategy of a team match.  A captain now has to worry about not just winning courts, but instead how the courts are won as there is a chance that will be used to determine the winner.

Now, change isn't necessarily bad.  One might argue that this format and use of tie-breakers discourages sacrificing a weaker player/pair against a strong pair, since a lopsided loss could hurt in the tie-breakers, and that is a good thing.  In a way, this gives the advantage to the deeper team and reduces the changes the "little guy" can pull an upset.  If you want the "better" team to win more of the time, this change is probably a good thing.

I still contend it was a mistake to go to a four court format, for this "2-2 tie" reason but others as well, but after a couple of years of it being used and one Nationals being nearly complete, what do you think?

Results from the third weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals - How did the predictions do?

The third weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals is complete, and it is time for the summary and check on how the predictions did.

The 55 & Over 7.0 was played in Orlando and for the women, Florida, Texas, Midwest, and SoCal made the semis.  Three of those teams were in my projected top-7.  Florida and Midwest played in the final with Florida winning 2-1.

The men had Caribbean, Midwest, Southern, and SoCal making the semis, two of those in my projected top-4 and all of them in the top-8.  The winners of the semis were SoCal and Southern, with Southern winning the final 2-1.

The 40 & Over 3.5 was played in Oklahoma City and for the women, Florida, NorCal, SoCal, and Intermountain made the semis, three of those in my projection's top-4, and my top-7 including all four teams.  Intermountain had to perhaps unfairly play Florida in a semi and lost 2-2 on the sets lost tie-breaker, with SoCal winning the other semi and Florida winning it all.

The men had Middle States, NorCal, Midwest, and Texas in the semis, three of those overachieving from a projected 2-2 record, and again the flawed tie-breaks perhaps got the seeing wrong.  Texas and Midwest won their semis and Midwest won it all.

The 40 & Over 4.5 was played in Arizona and for the women, Southern, NorCal, Northern, and SoCal all went 4-0 to make the semis, all in the top-7 of my projection.  The semis were won by SoCal and NorCal with NorCal winning the California battle.

The men had Texas, SoCal, MoValley, and Southern make the semis, Southern getting the spot on the games lost tie-breaker, three of these teams in the projection's top-7.  Texas and MoValley won the semis, both 2-2 scores, with MoValley "winning" because they won court 1 doubles.  In the final, Texas won to take the title.

The 18 & Over 4.0 was played in Arizona as well, and for the women, Florida, New England, Southern, and Middle States made the semis, Middle States winning the sets lost tie-breaker over Texas.  All four of these teams were in my projection's top-8.  Middle States and New England won their semis, New England taking it all.

The men had Intermountain, Southern, Northern, and Midwest making the semis.  Midwest got the last spot winning the sets lost tie-breaker over Southwest.  Just two of these teams were in my projection's top-7.  Intermountain and Southern won their semis, and Intermountain took the title.

Congratulations to this weekend's champs.

The broken USTA League Nationals standings tie-breaker rules rear their ugly head again

USTA League Nationals continued this weekend and I was just browsing results and unfortunately came across another case of the broken tie-breakers used for standings at Nationals getting the standings what I consider to be wrong.  It has happened before, and has now happened again.

At the 40 & Over 3.5 women's event, there was a 4-way tie at 3-1 for 3rd thru 6th.  Two of the teams, SoCal and Intermountain, were tied on court record at 10-6.  This means the flawed tie-breakers come into play.

Specifically, the next tie-breaker is sets lost, and both teams lost 16 sets.  The fact that Intermountain won 21 sets as compared to SoCal's 20 sets is ignored, it is not included in the tie-breakers.  The next tie-breaker is games lost and SoCal lost 144 to Intermountain's 146, so SoCal gets 3rd.

In addition to Intermountain winning an extra set, what the USTA's tie-breakers also ignore is that Intermountain won 156 games compared to SoCal's 142.  In fact, SoCal lost more games than they won, 142-144, while Intermountain won significantly more than they lost, 156-146.

By ignoring sets won, what the USTA is basically saying is that if you lose an individual court, there is no difference between losing in straight-sets vs losing in a 3rd set tie-break.  In this case, Intermountain lost as many sets as SoCal, but took more matches to third set tie-breaks, but gets no credit for doing so.

And the games lost tie-breaker is just fundamentally broken, as it says it is better to lose a set 6-0 (6 games lost) than 7-6 (7 games lost).  This is simply baffling.  And indeed, in their first match Intermountain lost a set 7-6, and in their third match lost a set 7-5.  Had they lost those sets 6-2, clearly not as good a result, they would have tied on games lost and the tie-breaker would have gone to game winning percentage where Intermountain would have won.  How does this make sense?

Now, you might argue, this was just determining 3rd vs 4th, both teams are advancing.  That is true, but that doesn't give the flawed tie-breakers a pass.  And it is actually meaningful as it affects seeding and Intermountain must face a Florida team that had a 14-2 court record while SoCal gets to face NorCal that only had an 11-5 court record.  So the flawed tie-breakers do have a significant impact on Intermountain's ability to make the final.

I've written about this before, I even submitted a regulations change proposal to fix it, but the USTA elected to not act on it.  I guess they simply don't care about equitably determining standings at Nationals.

What do you think?  Should Intermountain have been third in the standings instead of SoCal?  Should the USTA change the standings tie-breakers?

Quick update on week three of 2021 USTA League Nationals

It is Saturday morning which means one day is in the books for the third week of 2021 USTA League Nationals.

The 40 & Over 3.5 women has five teams at 2-0 with another seven at 1-1, and my simulation now says just two will finish 4-0 with a 4-way tie for two spots at 3-1.  Eastern, Caribbean, SoCal, and Intermountain will be trying to join Florida and NorCal in the finals.

The 40 & Over 3.5 men has six teams at 2-0, but just one with a most likely record of 4-0 now.  This leaves a 5-way tie for three spots, could be a tight tie-breaker with teams tied a 9-7 on courts with Middle States, Eastern, NorCal, Texas, and Florida in it to join Midwest.

The 18 & Over 4.0 women has five 2-0 teams and the simulation likes three to get to 3-0 (Florida, Texas, Middle States) with New England, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, and NorCal vying for the last spot.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men also has five 2-0 teams, and here the most likely records are 3-1 for five teams, but I can't imagine at least one doesn't get to 4-0 as two have over a 40% chance of it.  But look for Intermountain, Northern, Texas, Midwest, and Southern to be in it, and a tight tie-breaker deciding it.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women has a whopping six teams at 2-0 and three are expected to get to 4-0, Southern, SoCal, and Florida, with a 3-way tie at 3-1 for the last spot with NorCal, Northern, and New England in it.

The 40 & Over 4.5 men also has six teams at 2-0 and here again three are expected to be 4-0, SoCal, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas, with a 4-way tie for the last spot with Northern, Southern, MoValley, and PNW vying for the spot.

The 55 & Over 7.0 women has five teams at 2-0 and two are expected to remain undefeated in Hawaii and Southern, then a 4-way tie for two spots with Texas, PNW, Florida, and Eastern in it.

The 55 & Over 7.0 men also have five teams at 2-0 and SoCal and Caribbean are expected to get to 4-0, and then Middle States, Texas, and Midwest will try to get the last two spots.

Good luck everyone!

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 7.0 Me

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 55 & Over 7.0 level is being played in Orlando.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 7.0 women.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 16
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 5%
Tie for 4th: 81%
Size of tie: 3 - 32%, 4 - 25%, 2 - 22%, in theory could be 11
Sets tie-breaker: 30%, 2 teams 65%, 3 teams 28%
Easiest schedule: 3.54
Toughest schedule: 3.65
Likely semi-finalists: SoCal, Texas, Northern, Caribbean
Contenders: Middle States, MoValley, Southern

The simulation says just a 3-way tie at 3-1 for two spots, but six at 2-2 looking to get into the fray.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Women

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 18 & Over 4.0 level is being played in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.0 women.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 16
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 6%
Tie for 4th: 88%
Size of tie: 4 - 28%, 5 - 23%, 3 - 23%, in theory could be 11
Sets tie-breaker: 27%, 2 teams 66%, 3 teams 28%
Easiest schedule: 3.88
Toughest schedule: 3.97
Likely semi-finalists: Northern, Texas, Florida, Middle States
Contenders: Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, Southern, New England

The simulation says a big 6-way tie at 3-1 are the most likely records, but five teams have a better than 25% chance of getting to 4-0 so that very well could happen for a team or two, but a tie at 3-1 for the last spot is still very likely.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 18 & Over 4.0 level is being played in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.0 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 17
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 2%
Tie for 4th: 92%
Size of tie: 4 - 26%, 5 - 26%, 6 - 17%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 32%, 2 teams 61%, 3 teams 31%
Easiest schedule: 3.96
Toughest schedule: 4.06
Likely semi-finalists: Texas, Midwest, MoValley, Middle States
Contenders: SoCal, Eastern, Northern, Florida, New England

The simulation says a big 6-way tie at 3-1 are the most likely records, but three teams have a better than 20% chance of getting to 4-0 so that may happen, but a tie at 3-1 for the last spot is still very likely.  While the schedule strength range is 3.96 to 4.06, 14 of the teams are between 3.98 and 4.02.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

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Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 women

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 4.5 level is being played in Scottsdale, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.5 women.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 16
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 10%
Tie for 4th: 87%
Size of tie: 4 - 29%, 3 - 24%, 3 - 23%, in theory could be 11!
Sets tie-breaker: 26%, 2 teams 69%, 3 teams 26%
Easiest schedule: 4.26
Toughest schedule: 4.39
Likely semi-finalists: Florida, Southern, Middle States, SoCal
Contenders: NorCal, New England, Northern

There is likely to be a big group at 3-1, the simulation says six teams, and only three will advance.  Potentially a big tie on courts at 11-5.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 4.5 level is being played in Scottsdale, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.5 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 17
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 6%
Tie for 4th: 88%
Size of tie: 4 - 28%, 5 - 24%, 3 - 21%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 27%, 2 teams 67%, 3 teams 27%
Easiest schedule: 4.36
Toughest schedule: 4.51
Likely semi-finalists: SoCal, Mid-Atlantic, Caribbean, Texas
Contenders: Northern, New England, MoValley, PNW

There are likely a few 4-0 teams and 3-1 should be required to make the semis.  Note there are wildly varying schedule strengths, a full 0.15 spread covering the strongest to weakest.  If my ratings are representative, the schedules could play a huge role in who advances.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 3.5 level is being played in Oklahoma City.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 3.5 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 16
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 1%
Tie for 4th: 89%
Size of tie: 4 - 27%, 5 - 27%, 6 - 17%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 32%, 2 teams 60%, 3 teams 31%
Easiest schedule: 3.49
Toughest schedule: 3.61
Likely semi-finalists: Intermountain, Eastern, Middle States, MoValley
Contenders: Mid-Atlantic, Florida, Northern, and Southern

It should take a 3-1 record to make the semis, and the simulation says a 6-way tie for the top-6 spots at 3-1 is a real possibility.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Women

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 3.5 level is being played in Oklahoma City.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 3.5 women.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 17
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 3%
Tie for 4th: 91%
Size of tie: 4 - 26%, 5 - 25%, 3 - 17%, in theory could be 13!
Sets tie-breaker: 31%, 2 teams 61%, 3 teams 31%
Easiest schedule: 3.50
Toughest schedule: 3.58
Likely semi-finalists: Florida, Middle States, NorCal, Intermountain
Contenders: Caribbean, Texas, SoCal, and Eastern

It should take a 3-1 record to make the semis, and the simulation says a 7-way tie for the top-7 spots at 3-1 is a real possibility.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Weather report for the third weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals

The third weekend of USTA League Nationals is coming up and the Nationals Campus in Orlando enters the fray, so the weather report is in order.

Two events will be held in the Phoenix area, and weather there will be just fine, mid to upper 80s with 5-10 mph breezes.

Oklahoma City finishes up its service for 2021 this weekend, and Friday is forecast to have morning showers and be windy again, but after that the weather looks fine with mid to upper 60s.

Orlando hosts its first Nationals of the year and the temperatures look to be in the upper 80s with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and modest breezes.

So perhaps a minor delay in Oklahoma City, but otherwise looks good for the weekend.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

The third week of 2021 USTA League Nationals will be the busiest

The second week of Nationals is complete, and we can look forward to the third weekend which will be the busiest.  The first week had 18 & Over get things started, and this weekend continued that and added in one 40 & Over event (4.0), and this coming weekend adds in 55 & Over too.

The Phoenix area is again hosting two events with the 18 & Over 4.0 in Surprise and 40 & Over 4.5 in Scottsdale.  Oklahoma City hosts its third event in three weeks with the 40 & Over 3.5.  And the National Campus in Orlando hosts its first event of 2021 Nationals with the 55 & Over 7.0 level on clay.

Stay tuned for some previews and simulations.

Results from the second weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals - How did the predictions do?

The second weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals is complete, and it is time for the summary and check on how the predictions did.

I didn't do any previews/predictions of the 18 & Over 2.5 women simply because ratings are so unpredictable at the 2.5 level, but a summary is in order and that is that three 4-0 teams made the semis in PNW, Southern, and Eastern, and Intermountain made it as well as the sole 3-1 team.  It turns out my simulation would have had the first three teams all advancing or in a tie for the last spot, just Intermountain was the surprise.   The semis PNW beat Intermountain 2-1 and Southern beat Eastern 2-1, setting up the final where Eastern won 3-0.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women found Texas and Southern advancing as 4-0 teams, with a six team tie at 3-1 for the last two spots.  Middle States and Midwest were the only two teams with 11-5 court records and got the spots.  Three of those teams were in the simulation's top-8, so just an ok performance there.  The semis and final had "2-2" matches galore as Midwest won losing one fewer set and Middle States also won losing one fewer set.  The final had Midwest winning losing one fewer set.

The 40 & Over 4.0 men had Southern and Intermountain advance at 4-0, and then a four team tie at 3-1 with Middle States taking the third spot alone with an 11-5 court record, but Midwest taking the 4th spot over Mid-Atlantic on the sets lost tie-breaker with both having 10-6 court records.  The simulation had three of these teams in the projected top-5 so a pretty good showing here.  The semis had two 2-2 matches, Midwest beating Southern losing two fewer sets, and Middle States beat Intermountain where the teams lost the same number of sets, but Middle States lost two fewer games and advanced as a result.  Good thing, as they won 4-0 in the final.

The 18 & Over 4.5 women had a nice clean set of semi-finalists all going 4-0, those being Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Northern, and Intermountain.  The simulation did not do well here, these teams all being projected to be mid-pack.  The semis had Midwest romping 5-0 and Northern winning 4-1, and then Midwest won the final 3-2.

The 18 & Over 4.5 men had two undefeated teams in Southwest and Texas advance, and a four team tie at 3-1 had Southern and MoValley advance, the latter based on their head to head win over SoCal, otherwise SoCal would have advanced on fewer sets lost.  Just one of these teams, MoValley, was projected to make the semis, the others were all projected at 2-2 so did well.  In the semis MoValley took out Southwest 3-2 while Southern did the same to Texas, before MoValley won the final 3-2.

Congratulations to this weekend's champs.

Quick update on week two of 2021 USTA League Nationals

Day one of the second weekend of Nationals is complete and here is a quick summary.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women have six teams that are 2-0, but my simulation just one has a most likely record of 4-0 after today.  That leaves five teams vying for three spots, look for Southern, Midwest, Florida, Middle States, Texas, and Northern to compete for the spots.

The 40 & Over 4.0 men also have six teams at 2-0 and just one most likely to finish 4-0.  They just have four teams vying for the three remaining spots though and one 2-0 team very well could finish 2-2 and miss out.  Look for Middle States, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, PNW, New England, and Intermountain to be in it.

The 18 & Over 4.5 women have four teams at 2-0, and my simulation projects none of them to have a most likely record of 4-0 meaning a 6-way tie at 3-1.  Now, it is entirely possible at least one does get to 4-0, but if not, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Northern, Florida, and Texas are going to be competing for the four spots.

The 18 & Over 4.5 men also have four teams at 2-0, and this simulation also has a tie, with five teams at 3-1 as most likely.  Again, a 4-0 team may emerge, but look for MoValley, Texas, Southwest, SoCal, Southern, and Florida to be in the running.

Good luck everyone!

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Women

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the second weekend of Nationals, and the 18 & Over 4.5 level is being played in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.5 women.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 15
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 4%
Tie for 4th: 85%
Size of tie: 4 - 29%, 3 - 26%, 5 - 20%, in theory could be 11!
Sets tie-breaker: 37%, 2 teams 54%, 3 teams 34%
Easiest schedule: 4.35
Toughest schedule: 4.46
Likely semi-finalists: Florida, Middle States, Southern, Texas
Contenders: SoCal, New England, Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, Intermountain

It should take a 3-1 record to make the semis, but there is a big group of teams at 2-2 that could break into the top-4.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Weather report for the second weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals

The weather last weekend was fine, what about for the second weekend of Nationals?

The events are in the same location as last weekend, Oklahoma City and the Phoenix area, the 40 & Over 4.0 in the former and then 18 & Over 4.5 and 2.5 in the latter.

The Phoenix weather is warm and sunny as you'd expect, 91 Friday, then mid-80s, with slight winds of around 10 mph, so should be good to go.

Oklahoma City is also warm, mid-90s Friday and Saturday, then mid-80s on Sunday, but there is wind.  Friday is forecast at 15-25 mph, Saturday 22 mph, and Sunday 19 mph.  So that could make things interesting.

Good luck to all this weekend!

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Women

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the second weekend of Nationals, and the 18 & Over 4.0 level is being played in Oklahoma City.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.5 women.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 17
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 4%
Tie for 4th: 86%
Size of tie: 4 - 29%, 5 - 24%, 3 - 21%, in theory could be 13!
Sets tie-breaker: 27%, 2 teams 66%, 3 teams 28%
Easiest schedule: 3.89
Toughest schedule: 3.97
Likely semi-finalists: Northern, New England, NorCal, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Midwest, PNW, Middle States, Hawaii

Fourth place has a good chance of requiring a 3-1 record, and the group at 2-2 do have a shot at getting to 3-1.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

How is the 40 & Over 4-court format going to work at 2021 USTA League Nationals?

This weekend brings the first 40 & Over event at 2021 Nationals, which will be the first Nationals event since the division was changed to a 4-court format, so I thought it would be good to have a refresher on how it all works.

As a reminder, the USTA changed 40 & Over to a 4-court format for 2020, and there was, and still is, much angst over it, primarily because of the problems it causes in determining a match winner, but also because it removed a playing spot (7 players required for a match instead of 8) and singles playing opportunity.  In any case, we have the format for now, and this will be the first time it is used at Nationals since none were held in 2020.

When you have four courts, there is no longer always a clear winner based on court wins as you can have 2-2 ties.  At one point, the regulations allowed for unbroken ties, but that was fixed finally, but it is still good to understand how it all works.

Various sections handled 40 & Over differently.  Some elected to change to a Points Per Position format instead of team wins for standings, others elected to have the winner of court 1 doubles be the tie-breaker, but the standard rule and what will be used at Nationals as is follows.

Should a match end in a 2-2 tie, the first tie-breaker is sets lost, the loser of the fewest getting the team win.

If the teams lost the same number of sets, then it goes to games lost, again the loser of the fewest games getting the win.

If the teams are still tied, then the regulations call for using game winning percentage next, but this is pointless since if both teams are tied on games lost, they both won the same number of games and GWP is 50% for both teams.  Duh.

If things remain tied, then as the last tie-breaker the winner of court 1 doubles gets the win.  Note, this last tie-breaker was missing in the original 2020 regulations and it was possible for there to be team matches without a documented way to determine a winner!

This is all understandable, but it does mean it is not simple to know who won.  Every set and game counts, and should it come to it, court 1 doubles matters even more.  IMHO, I still think 4 courts for Nationals there a team match winner must be decided is a bad idea.

But what could happen as a result?  There could be some strange standings.

Take for example a team that has three strong players that play singles and one of the doubles courts.  These players could win their courts while their teammates lose every other court and the team matches are all 2-2.  If the strong players win easily and/or the other lost courts are close enough, the team would win each of these 2-2 matches and go 4-0 in round-robin despite a court record of 8-8.  If another team won three matches 4-0 and then happened to "lose" 2-2, they would be 3-1 with a court record of 14-2 and potentially not make the semis, losing out to other 4-0 teams including the one that is 8-8 on courts.

Or, a team could win three 2-2 matches and lose their other match 4-0 leading to a 3-1 record and 6-10 on courts.  Another could win two matches 4-0 then lose two 2-2 matches going 2-2 with a court record of 12-4.  If the competition is very close like my simulation of 40 & Over 4.0 men this weekend says it could be, the team that won only 6 courts over 4 matches could beat out a 2-2 team that won 12 courts for a semi-final position.

Are either of these scenarios wrong?  Not necessarily, but they certainly change the dynamic of how a team can advance.

What do you think?  Will the 4-court format make for more drama and excitement?  Or is it not the most equitable way to determine team match winners and ultimately who advances to the semis?

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the second weekend of Nationals, and the 18 & Over 4.5 level is being played in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.5 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 15 (Hawaii was listed but now isn't)
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: <1%
Tie for 4th: 76%
Size of tie: 4 - 31%, 5 - 24%, 3 - 19%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 24%, 2 teams 68%, 3 teams 27%
Easiest schedule: 4.42
Toughest schedule: 4.49
Likely semi-finalists: SoCal, Florida, MoValley, Mid-Atlantic
Contenders: PNW, Eastern, NorCal, Texas, New England, Midwest, Southwest, Intermountain, Southern

Like the 40 & Over 4.0 men, there could be a huge tie at 2-2 for the last semi-final spot with 13 of the 15 teams having a better than 20% chance of making the semis.  Realistically, just 9 have 30+% chance, and 5 have a 40+% chance.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the second weekend of Nationals, and the first 40 & Over event takes place with the 4.0 level being played in Oklahoma City.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.0 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 16
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 1.3%
Tie for 4th: 84%
Size of tie: 4 - 29%, 5 - 26%, 3 - 17%, in theory could be 13!
Sets tie-breaker: 29%, 2 teams 63%, 3 teams 30%
Easiest schedule: 3.95
Toughest schedule: 4.01
Likely semi-finalists: Texas, Middle States, Mid-Atlantic, PNW
Contenders: Midwest, New England, Northern, Southern, NorCal, Eastern, MoValley, Southwest

I was intending to change format to the above summary format to save myself typing, but this one deserves some words as a full 12 teams have a 20% or better chance of making the semis!  And the simulation says 4th could be a 9-way tie at 2-2.  Now, 16 teams "most likely" record never happens exactly as the simulation says so chances are one of those 2-2 teams steps up to get to 3-1, but this could be one of the closest competitions we've seen with this format at Nationals.

Note, for 40 & Over I use top-10 average ratings for each team since 7 players play vs top-11 averages for 18 & Over, and if I use top-11, five teams are projected to be 3-1 with that record becoming slightly more likely than 2-2, so it is really close and will depend on how many players teams play and how players play in a given match.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.