Thursday, January 31, 2013

Superbowl Preview - 49ers vs Ravens

Here is a preview of the Superbowl using my computer's ratings.

San Francisco is rated #1 by my computer so they are the pick to win the game on a neutral field.  But let's look deeper.

First, here is the 49ers performance chart.

This shows that in the majority of their games, they have been quite consistent, right around the low 90s with a few games a bit higher and a few a bit lower.  Their losses and tie appear as aberrations but the fact they happened means one could happen again.  To be fair though, the 2 losses in the last 9 games were both on the road and they just had a great road result in their last game.

If there is a "good" and "bad" 49er team, in their wins they averaged 93.1 rating points while in their losses they averaged 73.7.  And if you look at just their last 4 wins they average a slightly higher 93.7.

Here is Baltimore's chart.

They haven't had quite as clear a disparity between good and bad, with some fairly consistent results in their wins in the mid to upper 80s through much of the season, then some poor results in losses, but then have been very strong in the playoffs.  And you might throw out the Bengals game as meaningless so they've really had 4 strong results in a row recently.

If we look at just Baltimore's last 4 wins, they average 95.7.

So, looking at the entirety of the season, my computer would pick the 49ers by 3.  With Vegas having the line originally at 5 and closer to 3.5 or 4 now, that would make the pick the Ravens to cover.

And if you assume the teams are both going to show up with their best games, one could make the argument that the Ravens best is actually a bit better than the 49ers, around 2 points, so that would seem to reinforce the pick of the Ravens plus the points and even give hope to those that are picking the upset.

Here is hoping for an exciting and competitive game.

Week 20 NFL Ratings and Rankings - San Francisco moves to #1

The ratings after week 20 are now posted and listed below as well.

San Francisco moves to #2 while New England drops to #3 after the conference championship games.  Baltimore moves up two spots to #6 but still trails.

This means the computer likes the 49ers in the Superbowl, more to come.

1San Francisco87.86913-4-182.266+2, +0.110
2Seattle87.78512-682.296+0, -0.178
3New England87.34013-580.332-2, -1.549
4Denver87.32713-479.384+0, +0.170
5Green Bay85.60712-681.545+0, -0.079
6Baltimore84.89413-680.901+3, +1.277
7Atlanta84.70514-480.013-1, -0.341
8Chicago83.81510-681.106-1, -0.107
9NY Giants83.7949-781.142-1, +0.170
10Houston83.33213-580.187+0, -0.211
11Minnesota83.15010-781.699+0, -0.103
12Washington82.67110-780.964+0, +0.133
13Cincinnati82.48410-779.498+0, +0.250
14Carolina81.4217-980.815+1, +0.012
15St Louis81.4157-8-182.622-1, -0.225
16Pittsburgh80.6148-879.427+1, +0.287
17New Orleans80.4927-981.048-1, +0.025
18Tampa Bay80.1747-980.531+0, -0.009
19Dallas80.1718-881.478+0, +0.125
20Miami79.4287-980.196+0, -0.336
21San Diego78.9827-979.124+1, +0.127
22Indianapolis78.84111-679.134-1, -0.126
23Arizona78.3555-1182.739+0, -0.211
24Buffalo77.3946-1079.905+0, -0.289
25Detroit77.3534-1281.727+0, -0.142
26NY Jets77.0006-1080.737+0, -0.272
27Cleveland76.5255-1180.182+0, +0.246
28Tennessee75.3286-1079.808+0, -0.199
29Philadelphia73.9014-1281.268+0, +0.126
30Oakland73.3024-1279.712+0, +0.132
31Jacksonville70.9522-1480.117+0, -0.207
32Kansas City70.5452-1480.423+0, +0.106

Monday, January 14, 2013

NFL Conference Championship Performance Charts

As a quick way to visually see how the final 4 teams have performed, here are their performance charts.

New England is #1 for a reason, they've had a lot of good results.  I've had a few folks say they think even so, they are underrated, and what is holding them back are a few bad results.  The Arizona and early season Baltimore loss don't count that much now, but the 49ers loss and narrow win over Jacksonville are holding them back a bit now.  If you don't include those considering them aberrations  their last 5 games have all been in the 90-100 range, very strong.

Baltimore had a tough patch late in the year, but were banged up a bit and perhaps the Cincinnati game didn't mean much to them.  Ignoring that game, 3 of their last 4 have been in the 90-97 range, also quite strong.

Atlanta won a lot, but played a weaker schedule.  In fact, they've only had a few results over 90 late in the year, their best again the Giants.  They certainly don't look as strong as the AFC teams unless they can repeat their peak form.

The 49ers have also been a bit up and down, but like the AFC teams their highs have been in the 90-100 range and they've had a bunch.  They look a bit stronger in general than Atlanta and are ranked higher, but they have to go on the road.

NFL Week 19 Ratings and Rankings - New England stretches their lead

The ratings after week 19 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England stays #1 and Seattle stays #2, but the gap widens.  The 49ers and Broncos swap spots right behind them.

Seattle loses a few ratings points but stays #2 because they were predicted to have a narrow (less than 1 point, computer almost called it perfect) win and lost by 2, so they were rated pretty close to correct.  For the same reason, Atlanta's rating improves slightly but they stay #6 even though Green Bay at #5 did lose ratings points, just not enough.

Baltimore does move up 2 spots after their road win but will still be an underdog to the Patriots.  Atlanta and San Francisco will be a very close prediction.

1New England88.88913-480.346+0, +0.333
2Seattle87.96312-682.496+0, -0.172
3San Francisco87.75912-4-182.181+1, +0.578
4Denver87.15713-479.267-1, -0.929
5Green Bay85.68612-681.643+0, -0.692
6Atlanta85.04614-379.691+0, +0.163
7Chicago83.92210-681.215+0, -0.131
8NY Giants83.6249-780.983+1, +0.051
9Baltimore83.61712-680.324+2, +0.698
10Houston83.54313-580.398-2, -0.349
11Minnesota83.25310-781.808-1, -0.191
12Washington82.53810-780.842+0, +0.035
13Cincinnati82.23410-779.266+0, +0.018
14St Louis81.6407-8-182.829+0, -0.002
15Carolina81.4097-980.805+0, -0.087
16New Orleans80.4677-981.020+0, -0.039
17Pittsburgh80.3278-879.166+0, +0.056
18Tampa Bay80.1837-980.521+0, -0.058
19Dallas80.0468-881.332+0, +0.031
20Miami79.7647-980.513+0, +0.037
21Indianapolis78.96711-679.280+0, -0.053
22San Diego78.8557-978.993+0, -0.060
23Arizona78.5665-1182.969+0, +0.017
24Buffalo77.6836-1080.231+0, +0.022
25Detroit77.4954-1281.854+0, -0.119
26NY Jets77.2726-1081.061+0, +0.023
27Cleveland76.2795-1179.913+0, +0.020
28Tennessee75.5276-1080.030+0, -0.105
29Philadelphia73.7754-1281.127+0, +0.044
30Oakland73.1704-1279.587+0, -0.071
31Jacksonville71.1592-1480.340+0, -0.076
32Kansas City70.4392-1480.286+0, -0.078

Monday, January 7, 2013

College Football Week 20 and Final Ratings and Rankings - Alabama #1

This week's and the season's final ratings and rankings are now posted.

Alabama moves to #1 after swapping it back and forth with Oregon during the bowl season with their dominating win over Notre Dame.  They aren't that far ahead of Oregon, less than 0.7 ratings points, but they finish #1 never the less.

The SEC is well represented after that with Texas A&M, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina in spots 3 thru 6 and LSU at #9.  The Pac-12 is represented with 2 teams with Stanford at #10 joining Oregon.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

1Alabama93.56413-173.779+1, +2.262
2Oregon92.88612-172.047-1, -0.111
3Texas A&M89.93011-274.817+0, +0.574
4Georgia88.23512-274.265+0, +0.684
5Florida86.63011-276.239+1, +0.327
6South Carolina86.29811-274.580+1, +0.399
7Kansas St85.66911-274.441+1, -0.075
8Notre Dame85.25212-174.985-3, -1.508
9LSU84.87910-374.538+0, +0.700
10Stanford83.73312-275.418+0, -0.237
11Ohio State83.41312-069.739+0, +0.049
12Florida St82.77812-266.569+0, -0.045
13Utah St82.70811-265.806+0, -0.099
14Oklahoma82.60710-374.066+0, -0.128
15Oregon St81.9329-474.181+0, -0.112
16Clemson81.75711-269.976+1, +0.110
17Oklahoma St81.7108-571.373-1, -0.043
18Baylor80.4638-575.068+0, -0.163
19Wisconsin80.0488-673.061+0, +0.016
20Michigan79.6958-573.560+0, +0.142
21Texas79.5959-474.879+0, +0.049
22Vanderbilt79.3059-470.711+2, +0.479
23Brigham Young79.2568-569.171-1, -0.194
24Mississippi78.9817-675.080+6, +1.775
25Southern Cal78.9037-674.665-2, -0.270

Sunday, January 6, 2013

NFL Week 18 Ratings and Rankings - Patriots remain #1

The ratings after week 18 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England stays #1 but Seattle moves up to #2 just ahead of Denver.  All three teams are very close and the 49ers are close behind before a bit of a drop to Green Bay and the rest.

1New England88.55612-480.348+0, +0.033
2Seattle88.13512-582.143+1, +0.485
3Denver88.08613-379.162-1, +0.005
4San Francisco87.18111-4-182.213+0, +0.082
5Green Bay86.37812-581.178+0, +0.482
6Atlanta84.88313-379.452+0, -0.075
7Chicago84.05310-681.354+0, -0.007
8Houston83.89213-479.805+1, +0.098
9NY Giants83.5739-780.928+1, -0.029
10Minnesota83.44410-781.970-2, -0.502
11Baltimore82.91911-679.797+1, +0.400
12Washington82.50310-780.803-1, -0.518
13Cincinnati82.21610-779.255+0, -0.166
14St Louis81.6427-8-182.822+0, +0.028
15Carolina81.4967-980.877+0, -0.053
16New Orleans80.5067-981.086+0, -0.054
17Pittsburgh80.2718-879.141+1, -0.040
18Tampa Bay80.2417-980.590-1, -0.097
19Dallas80.0158-881.287+0, -0.085
20Miami79.7277-980.480+0, -0.004
21Indianapolis79.02011-679.347+0, -0.505
22San Diego78.9157-979.085+0, -0.023
23Arizona78.5495-1182.951+0, +0.058
24Buffalo77.6616-1080.195+0, +0.000
25Detroit77.6144-1281.978+0, -0.021
26NY Jets77.2496-1081.022+0, -0.020
27Cleveland76.2595-1179.880+0, -0.068
28Tennessee75.6326-1080.135+0, -0.068
29Philadelphia73.7314-1281.071+0, -0.095
30Oakland73.2414-1279.674+0, -0.026
31Jacksonville71.2352-1480.452+0, -0.092
32Kansas City70.5172-1480.372+0, -0.065

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

2013 Sugar Bowl Preview - Florida vs Louisville

On the surface, the Sugar Bowl matchup between Florida and Louisville may look like a slam dunk for the team from the SEC.  Let's take a look at the bowl preview to see if this is indeed the case.

Florida is ranked #3 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 89.798 against a schedule strength of 76.179. Their performance chart from week 14 can be found below and shows they
were quite good all year, particularly mid-season, but did finish a bit down in 4 of their last 5 until they beat FSU.  They did have one of the tougher schedules all year long.

Louisville is ranked #57 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 72.736 against a schedule strength of 66.413.  Yes, you read that right, Louisville's schedule is nearly 10 points lower than Florida's, a key reason they can be 10-2 and only ranked #57.  Their performance chart from week 15 can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent, just always around the low to mid 70s, and they did lose 2 of their last 3 games with results in the 50s.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Kentucky whom Louisville beat 32-14 at home and Florida beat 38-0 at home.

The spread has hovered around 13-14 and my computer in a rare occurrence with a line this big says it isn't enough picking Florida by 17.1.


2013 Fiesta Bowl Preview - Oregon vs Kansas State

In a game that could have been the BCS Championship game except for one fateful Saturday, Oregon and K-State face off in the Fiesta Bowl this Thursday night.

Oregon is ranked #2 by my computer with an 11-1 record and a rating of 91.369 against a schedule strength of 70.861. Their performance chart through week 14 can be found below and shows they were highly ranked almost all year, but had a very weak scheduled until late in the season and that is when they had their one loss.

Kansas State is ranked #6 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 87.704 against a schedule strength of 73.604. Their performance chart from week 15 can be found below and shows
they were also highly ranked all year and had a stronger schedule than Oregon, but had a worse loss than Oregon did.

The teams are not separated by 2 degrees at all, and by 3 degrees through Arizona/Oklahoma State and Arkansas State/North Texas.

The spread is Oregon by 8 to 8.5 and the computer agrees but has Oregon by only 3.7 after their rating has dropped with some of the bowl results.  So Kansas plus the points is the pick.

College Football Week 18+ Ratings and Rankings - Alabama moves to #1

My computer's ratings and rankings through the Orange Bowl (week 18+) are below and week 18 is on the web-site.

After staying #1 through all the bowl games played through Saturday, Oregon finally succumbed and has fallen behind Alabama for the top spot.  Why is this do you ask if neither team has played?  It is because of how their opponents have done in bowl games.  And more specifically, how Oregon's opponents have done.

Alabama's rating has moved just a fraction from 91.056 after the SEC title game to 91.421, the biggest benefit coming from Georgia winning by more than expected over Nebraska.  But Oregon has seen their rating drop over 2 points from 93.723 to 91.369.  This is due to prior opponents doing poorly in bowl games including Fresno State (43-10 loss), Arizona (closer than expected win), Washington (close loss), USC (ugly loss), and Oregon State (loss when expected to win).

Other movers include FSU and Clemson making a statement for the ACC.

The top-25 is below including games played through the Orange Bowl, full ratings through last Saturday on the site.

1Alabama91.42112-172.458+1, -0.032
2Oregon91.36911-170.861-1, -0.818
3Florida89.79811-176.179+0, +0.582
4Texas A&M88.29710-274.149+0, -0.135
5Georgia88.25112-274.188+2, +1.002
6Kansas St87.70411-173.604-1, -0.363
7Notre Dame87.09112-073.812-1, -0.394
8South Carolina86.66611-274.735+0, +0.310
9Oklahoma84.85310-273.650+0, -0.472
10LSU84.55210-374.276+0, -0.751
11Stanford83.76912-275.493+0, -0.393
12Ohio State83.47412-069.788+0, -0.164
13Florida St83.33312-266.880+5, +2.171
14Utah St82.80111-265.909-1, -0.068
15Oklahoma St82.6318-572.171-1, +0.081
16Oregon St81.9069-474.198-1, -0.547
17Clemson81.87211-270.036+4, +1.658
18Baylor81.4618-576.038-2, -0.400
19Texas80.4299-475.578+0, -0.451
20Wisconsin80.0988-673.067+0, -0.505
21Michigan79.7648-573.620+1, +0.131
22Brigham Young79.4518-569.405+2, +0.214
23Vanderbilt79.4449-470.808+3, +0.565
24Southern Cal78.9887-674.704-7, -2.600
25Northwestern78.68310-370.276+7, +1.200