Saturday, October 20, 2018

Day 1.5 Update: 40 & Over 3.5 Men USTA League Nationals

Due to rain and altered schedules, day 1 is just finishing up today but with all but one "day 1" match now entered, here is what the simulation looks like now.

Six teams are undefeated, but it appears there is no scenario where they can all remain undefeated, nor even five of them undefeated.  There is a very slim chance of four undefeated so there is a good chance we'll have a tie for at least 4th at 3-1 again.

Here are the teams most likely to be in at least a tie for 4th in order of likelihood:
  • Middle States
  • Intermountain
  • Eastern
  • Texas
  • Northern Cal
  • Southern
  • Hawaii
  • Midwest

Four of the five teams highlighted in the original prediction show up above, just one missing but they could still get to 3-1 and be in the running.

Just the first three have a 4-0 record as the most likely, so a five way tie at 3-1 for one spots is expected, and a few other teams are more likely to finish 2-2 but could join the fray at 3-1.

This could be tight, and with the delays, matches will be going late today so we might not know the semi-finalists until late tonight.

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