Friday, October 26, 2018

Day 1 Update: 40 & Over 4.0 Men USTA League Nationals

Day 1 is in the books and here is what the simulation looks like now for the 40 & Over 4.0 men.

Just four teams are undefeated, but two of them play each other so no chance of them all remaining so, so we will have a 3-1 team in the semis.

Five teams are undefeated, but it appears there is no scenario where they can all remain undefeated, nor even four of them undefeated.  It appears we'll have a tie for at least 4th at 3-1 again.  And right now, just five teams at 3-1 or better.

Here are the teams most likely to be in at least a tie for 4th in order of likelihood:
  • Middle States - 99%
  • Florida - 99%
  • Hawaii - 88%
  • Southern - 83%
  • New England - 63%

Three of the above were highlighted in the original prediction, just Northern is missing, but they were the 4th pick originally to make the semis and are 1-1 so still have a chance to get to 3-1.

A big match tomorrow is Hawaii and Southern to end the day, that could likely be for a semi-final spot.

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