Monday, October 29, 2012

NFL Week 8 Ratings and Rankings - Houston stays #1

The ratings after week 8 are now posted and listed below as well.

Houston is stays #1 and Atlanta moves up to #2.  Miami makes the big move up 8 spots to #9 and is now projected to make the playoffs.

1Houston89.7516-181.005+0, +0.017
2Atlanta87.9577-079.288+3, +0.974
3San Francisco87.2286-282.004+1, +0.176
4Chicago87.2056-179.667-2, -2.106
5NY Giants87.0366-280.692+2, +0.985
6New England87.0075-381.348+0, +0.837
7Denver86.9914-382.680+1, +1.487
8Green Bay86.7825-382.276-5, -1.415
9Miami83.6544-381.361+8, +1.915
10Seattle83.4534-483.527-1, -1.312
11Pittsburgh82.6414-379.879+7, +1.731
12Baltimore81.9495-279.695+4, +0.151
13Dallas81.9223-484.244+0, -0.284
14Tampa Bay81.0103-479.295+8, +2.977
15Minnesota80.9405-378.780-5, -3.304
16Washington80.8293-582.693-4, -1.463
17NY Jets80.7443-582.769-3, -1.409
18St Louis80.2023-582.874-7, -2.397
19Detroit80.1223-482.066+0, -0.500
20Arizona79.9374-481.432-5, -1.981
21San Diego79.5213-479.078-1, -0.006
22Carolina79.0191-683.333+4, +1.698
23Cincinnati78.0123-479.829+2, +0.670
24Philadelphia77.9503-481.757-3, -0.478
25New Orleans77.7502-581.103-2, -0.088
26Indianapolis77.1964-379.748+1, +0.142
27Oakland77.1363-481.394+2, +2.167
28Buffalo77.0193-479.804-4, -0.537
29Cleveland75.6542-679.587+2, +0.712
30Jacksonville75.4251-682.860+0, +0.472
31Tennessee74.4893-581.775-3, -1.371
32Kansas City70.5711-679.906+0, -0.476

Analyzing the 10/28/12 AP Poll - LSU ahead of Notre Dame on 2 ballots

Here is week 9 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 9 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

The top-4 are even clearer now with Notre Dame replacing Florida, although it is interesting that there isn't perfect consensus.  LSU is getting two 4th place votes ahead of Notre Dame in each case.  Who is doing this?  Voters from Arkansas and Alabama, no big surprise.

Ohio State has convinced some voters with their range now being just 5th to 11th now where they were 6th to 21st last week.  South Carolina and Stanford are now the teams the voters are having the most trouble with.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

College Football Week 9 Season Projections - 4 undefeateds

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 9 are now available.  These projections now include projected conference championship games.

With the upsets and big wins by some teams yesterday, there are now 4 teams projected to finish the season undefeated.

Kansas State tops the list primarily because they've played their toughest games, and don't have a 13th game to play in the conference title game.  The Big-12 is the strongest conference though and they still host Oklahoma State and Texas.

Oregon is next primarily because their remaining schedule took a hit with USC and Oregon State both losing.  It is becoming increasingly possible, although perhaps not likely, that they could finish the season undefeated but lose out to K-State or Notre Dame in the BCS due to the computers.

And Alabama is now just just under a 65% chance, their big challenge being at LSU and then perhaps the toughest title game opponent in Georgia.

Notre Dame now has a better than 60% chance of finishing undefeated, their primary challenge being at USC in their final game.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Kansas St12-
Notre Dame12-
Ohio State12-145.631.020.6
Boise St11-
Northern Illinois12-

College Football Week 9 Ratings and Rankings - The top-4 emerge

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

And K-state is #1 for the 4th week in a row with a new #2 in Alabama close behind.  Oregon stays at #3, jumped by Alabama, but is just over 0.2 behind so a dead heat.  After the top-3, things drop off a bit but a new #4 in Notre Dame up 9 spots is right there.  The computer finally was impressed at Notre dame went on the road and won against a quality opponent by a good score.

The Big-12 as a whole dropped due to OU losing to Notre Dame, not always a lot of ranking spots but in the ratings as every team other than Oklahoma State and Kansas lost ratings points.  They are still the strongest conference as just one game doesn't override all the other good work they've done out of conference.

You can see the BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings as well where K-State is #1 and here they are followed very closely by Notre Dame at #2.  Interesting, Florida drops ratings points but only falls 1 spot to #3 ahead of Alabama.  This is based largely on strength of schedule and that will change somewhat after Bama goes to LSU next weekend.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

1Kansas St97.0128-072.910+0, -3.972
2Alabama96.7978-073.106+2, +1.161
3Oregon96.5848-067.376+0, -0.574
4Notre Dame90.0838-076.169+9, +6.827
6Florida88.6787-177.255-1, -3.381
7Texas Tech85.3836-275.558-1, -5.346
8Oregon St84.7186-176.672+3, +0.255
9LSU84.6427-170.195-2, -1.102
10Southern Cal84.5886-271.842+4, +1.759
11South Carolina84.3237-273.991-3, -0.563
12Arizona84.2945-376.159+0, +0.999
13Texas A&M83.8686-271.899-3, -0.652
14Georgia83.7307-171.986+10, +4.352
15Florida St83.0998-161.029+2, +1.646
16Stanford82.9796-276.318-1, +0.749
17Oklahoma St82.4705-267.027+1, +1.105
18Ohio State81.8859-068.810+11, +4.113
19Texas81.0426-274.734-10, -3.549
20Utah St80.9527-266.834+5, +1.620
21Mississippi St80.4677-165.386+0, -0.286
22Iowa St80.4295-375.543-2, -0.667
23Arizona St80.1635-371.463-4, -0.939
24Clemson79.2187-165.877+6, +1.978
25Brigham Young79.1265-471.274+9, +3.026

Monday, October 22, 2012

NFL Week 7 Ratings and Rankings - Houston back to #1

The ratings after week 7 are now posted and listed below as well.

Houston is back to #1 after they thumped Baltimore.  Other moves are Green Bay and San Francisco moving up at the expense of the Giants and Patriots.  Atlanta isn't getting much love due to having the easiest schedule thus far.

1Houston89.7346-181.029+1, +1.719
2Chicago89.3115-180.939-1, -0.686
3Green Bay88.1974-384.479+3, +1.698
4San Francisco87.0525-282.941+3, +0.706
5Atlanta86.9836-078.443-1, +0.199
6New England86.1704-381.793-3, -1.189
7NY Giants86.0515-279.611-2, -0.681
8Denver85.5043-383.049+1, +0.692
9Seattle84.7654-384.066-1, -1.035
10Minnesota84.2445-279.536+3, +1.028
11St Louis82.5993-483.692-1, -1.542
12Washington82.2923-482.299+3, +0.073
13Dallas82.2063-383.880+1, -0.344
14NY Jets82.1533-482.459+3, +0.944
15Arizona81.9184-381.786-3, -1.623
16Baltimore81.7985-279.553-6, -2.343
17Miami81.7393-381.452-1, -0.441
18Pittsburgh80.9103-380.043+5, +2.001
19Detroit80.6222-483.916+1, +1.150
20San Diego79.5273-378.700+4, +0.959
21Philadelphia78.4283-381.040+1, -0.525
22Tampa Bay78.0332-478.459-4, -2.368
23New Orleans77.8382-479.403+6, +2.515
24Buffalo77.5563-480.306-3, -1.692
25Cincinnati77.3423-479.225-6, -2.243
26Carolina77.3211-581.646-1, -0.821
27Indianapolis77.0543-381.300-1, +0.384
28Tennessee75.8603-483.109+3, +2.375
29Oakland74.9692-481.603+1, +0.998
30Jacksonville74.9531-582.109-2, -0.613
31Cleveland74.9421-679.796-4, -1.469
32Kansas City71.0471-580.289+0, -0.377

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Analyzing the 10/21/12 AP Poll

Here is week 8 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 8 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

And there is more consensus this week with the top 4 teams all receiving votes in the top-5.  After that, there is a little more variance but not that bad until getting to Ohio State who is voted everywhere from 6 to 21.  Mississippi State also has a bit of a range, from 9 to 23.

But it is interesting to look at the specific totals and how they changed from last week:

  • Alabama lost a first place vote and their total went from a perfect 1500 to 1499.
  • Oregon beat perhaps their toughest opponent of the year 43-21 and lost 12 votes from 1436 to 1424.
  • Florida had a convincing win over South Carolina and gained 19 votes from 1361 to 1380.
  • Kansas State thumped West Virginia and gained 37 votes from 1296 to 1333.
  • Notre Dame eked by BYU and lost 42 votes from 1283 to 1241, but stays #5.
  • LSU beat a good Texas A&M and gained 19 votes from 1153 to 1172.
  • Oregon State had a good win and moved up to #7 gaining 56 points from 1050 to 1106.
  • Oklahoma had a convincing win and moved up 2 spots to #8 and gained 71 points from 994 to 1065.
  • Ohio State won in OT and dropped 2 spots losing 43 votes from 1071 to 1028.
So, winning convincingly over good opponents helped everyone but Oregon who did so but lost some votes.  Winning close did not impress the voters and Notre Dame and Ohio State lost votes.

And then there were 11 - Looking at the remaining undefeated college football teams

With the completion of week 8 of the college football season, there are 11 teams that remain with unblemished records.  Let's take a look at each one along with the chances they might finish undefeated.  The analysis below will use my computer's current ratings and projections.

#1 K-State tops my computer's list at 7-0 and is projected to finish 12-0 and do so convincingly (73%).  They do still have a number of tough opponents in Texas Tech (#6, 6-1), Texas (#9, 5-2), TCU (#16, 5-2), Oklahoma St (#18, 4-2), and Baylor (#26, 3-3), but if they play like they have been, they should finished with a perfect record.  There is a 24% chance they finish with a loss and 3% that they get two losses so it isn't a lock however.

#3 Oregon is next also at 7-0 and is also projected to finish the regular season undefeated, with a higher probability, 78%, than K-State.  But they would have to play the Pac-12 Championship game, likely against USC in a rematch from earlier in the year.  But in large part to having that game at home, even including it Oregon still has a 77% chance of finishing 13-0.  They would have a 21% chance of one loss and a 2% chance of two.

Next is #4 Alabama at 7-0 and also projected to finish the regular season undefeated (62%).  They, like Oregon, would have a conference championship game and would likely have to face a tougher opponent than Oregon in Florida and also not get it at home.  The result is, when including this game, that Alabama is projected to lose one game along the way (44%) but still have a 40% chance of staying undefeated.  Note that the computer is not necessarily projecting they would get to the SEC championship game and lose it, rather just that there is a greater chance of them losing one of their remaining games than not.  They could get to the SEC championship game with that loss and still win that game.  Including the championship game, they'd have a 15% chance of two losses.

#5 Florida is also 7-0 and also projected to finish the regular season undefeated (67%).  But like Alabama, when including the championship game they are more likely to finish with one loss than none (54% to 24%) and have a 20% chance of two losses.

Oregon State is undefeated but only #11 at 6-0 having had one of their games postponed/cancelled due to travel issues.  Without replaying that game, they are projected to finish 9-2 (46%).  Why the drop-off?  Their remaining schedule includes Oregon (#3), @Stanford (#15), and ASU (#19).  They do have a 4% chance at no losses and 31% of just one.

Notre Dame is only ranked #13 by the computer but is 7-0 and thus in this discussion.  Given that they still have to play @Oklahoma, and @USC, they are projected to finish 10-2 (61%).  They are given a 1% chance of no losses and 36% of just one.

Mississippi State is 7-0 but has played the 2nd weakest schedule of all the remaining undefeateds (weaker than Rutgers and Louisville, even being in the SEC) and is thus just #21.  They also have @Alabama, Texas A&M, and at LSU remaining resulting a projected 9-3 record (42%).  They are given only a 0.1% chance of no losses, 4% of one, and 24% of two.

Rutgers is #23 at 7-0 and with a remaining schedule where the toughest opponent is #46 Cincinnati, they are projected to go undefeated (63%).  They do have a 33% chance of one loss and 4% of two.

Ohio State is 8-0 but only #29 due to some very close wins over some not so tough teams at home (3-5 Cal and 3-4 Purdue) and a 3 point win over a 2-5 Indiana, plus their toughest opponent thus far only being #45 Nebraska.  Given their current rating, they are projected to finish 10-2 (40%) but have a 36% chance of just one loss and a 10% chance of none, so it isn't out of the question.

Louisville is undefeated but only #49 due to a weak schedule and is projected to finish only 10-2 (46%).  The key game is finishing the season @Rutgers and they are given a 31% chance of just one loss but only a 1% chance of none.

Last, Ohio University is 7-0 but only #71.  They are given a 10% chance of staying undefeated and a 34% chance of just one loss, but most likely is 10-2 (38%).

There you have it.  Who do you think will finish undefeated?

College Football Week 8 Season Projections - Five (!) undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 8 are now available.

With some convincing wins this weekend, 3 more teams are added to the projected undefeated list.  It now includes Oregon, K-state, Florida, Rutgers, and Alabama, all at 62% or better.

Now, two of them would play each other in the SEC Championship game and Oregon would have a championship game to play against potentially USC, so K-State may be the big winner out of all of that should they manage to win out.  It is unlikely Rutgers would get anywhere close to being in position to take advantage of the situation to find themselves in the BCS Championship game.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Kansas St12-
Northern Illinois11-
Boise St11-

College Football Week 8 Ratings and Rankings - K-State remains #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

An K-State stays #1 for the 3rd week in a row.  Even though they thumped WVU, their rating dropped slightly due to prior opponents Kansas and Iowa State doing worse than expected.  OU stays #2, their only loss was to #1 K-State and they have thumped everyone else.  Oregon improves to #3 after a convincing win in their most meaningful game of the year thus far.  Oregon's move drops Alabama to #4 even though Bama improved their rating slightly.  Florida falls in at #5 making a convincing move improving their rating over 5 points, but that garnered them only a 1 spot ranking improvement.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

1Kansas St100.9847-073.092+0, -0.677
2Oklahoma100.6355-173.388+0, -0.555
3Oregon97.1587-066.746+2, +7.448
4Alabama95.6367-071.806-1, +0.898
5Florida92.0597-075.932+1, +5.143
6Texas Tech90.7296-175.202-2, -2.034
7LSU85.7447-170.266+9, +5.229
8South Carolina84.8866-273.896-1, -0.983
9Texas84.5915-277.824+2, +1.157
10Texas A&M84.5205-273.382-1, +0.839
11Oregon St84.4636-074.093+3, +3.640
12Arizona83.2954-374.696+14, +6.188
13Notre Dame83.2567-072.319-3, -0.422
14Southern Cal82.8296-168.435-2, +1.695
15Stanford82.2305-276.456+6, +3.566
16TCU81.9655-267.295-1, +1.347
17Florida St81.4537-159.692+3, +1.975
18Oklahoma St81.3654-266.678+13, +5.910
19Arizona St81.1025-270.474-6, +0.121
20Iowa St81.0964-377.711-12, -4.742
21Mississippi St80.7537-060.386+1, +2.317
22West Virginia80.7335-276.061-4, +0.631
23Rutgers80.5207-062.553+0, +2.879
24Georgia79.3786-167.838-7, -0.883
25Utah St79.3326-265.706-1, +1.750

Monday, October 15, 2012

NFL Week 6 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projected Records

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.  This is being done to see how things would be different if the officials had made the right call.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 6 ratings.  You'll see that Green Bay would jump up to #3 while Seattle would fall 1 spot to #9.  A few other teams like the Giants would also be impacted.

1Chicago90.3564-182.034+0, +0.359
2Houston88.3545-180.968+0, +0.339
3Green Bay88.0674-283.707+3, +1.568
4New England87.0133-382.510-1, -0.346
5Atlanta86.7016-078.091-1, -0.083
6San Francisco86.6224-283.015+1, +0.276
7NY Giants86.5804-280.318-2, -0.152
8Denver84.8163-382.245+1, +0.004
9Seattle84.4093-383.676-1, -1.391
10Baltimore83.9715-178.217+0, -0.170
11St Louis83.8583-383.620-1, -0.283
12Minnesota83.3784-279.135+1, +0.162
13Arizona83.1714-281.571-1, -0.370
14Dallas82.2142-385.699+0, -0.336
15Washington82.1603-381.499+0, -0.059
16Miami82.1453-381.721+0, -0.035
17NY Jets81.4173-381.065+0, +0.208
18Tampa Bay80.1792-379.407+0, -0.222
19Cincinnati79.5673-380.464+0, -0.018
20Detroit79.4772-381.841+0, +0.005
21Buffalo79.1743-381.983+0, -0.074
22Pittsburgh78.9122-379.108+1, +0.003
23Philadelphia78.8293-381.407-1, -0.124
24San Diego78.5283-377.609+0, -0.040
25Carolina77.7361-482.036+0, -0.406
26Indianapolis77.1852-383.213+0, +0.515
27Cleveland76.3311-581.281+0, -0.080
28Jacksonville75.8451-483.168+0, +0.279
29New Orleans75.3131-478.968+0, -0.010
30Oakland73.9611-482.820+0, -0.010
31Tennessee73.5192-482.610+0, +0.034
32Kansas City71.3471-580.644+0, -0.077

But more interesting is how the playoff projections change.  Green Bay would go from being 9-7 and having to win a tie-breaker to get the last wildcard spot to 11-5 and just one game behind Chicago for the division.  Seattle would go from being tied for the division at 10-6 to being tied for the last wildcard at 9-7.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Green Bay11-528.119.924.1
NY Giants10-625.924.717.8
New England10-626.719.323.6
San Francisco10-625.018.522.8
St Louis8-825.320.121.6
San Diego8-826.119.922.6
NY Jets8-825.218.922.7
Tampa Bay7-925.623.418.5
New Orleans4-1227.921.622.6
Kansas City4-1227.717.726.9

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.

NFL Week 6 Projected Records

The projected records after week 6 are now posted and listed below as well.

Atlanta and  Houston continue to lead the way as they have for 4 weeks now, although the projected records are the worst they been at 13-3 and 12-4.

In the NFC, a 3-way tie for the last wildcard at 9-7 is projected with Green Bay getting the current nod as getting in based on them having the best chance at being 1 game better at 10-6.

In the AFC, both wildcards are projected to be at 8-8 and 4 teams vying for the spot.  Presently, Miami and Cincinnati get the nod based on having the better shot at 9-7.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
NY Giants10-625.725.317.1
New England10-627.321.022.6
San Francisco10-624.416.823.8
Green Bay9-726.625.317.8
St Louis8-825.520.921.0
San Diego8-826.119.722.7
NY Jets8-824.917.723.7
Tampa Bay7-925.423.917.9
New Orleans4-1228.020.623.8
Kansas City4-1227.817.926.8

NFL Week 6 Ratings and Rankings - A new #1 in Chicago

The ratings after week 6 are now posted and listed below as well.

Chicago is the new #1 with Houston dropping after their loss.  New England's rating dropped nearly a point but moves up 2 spots thanks to the 49ers loss and Atlanta's narrow win.

The NFC West is not quite as highly rated as they have been, now just #7, #8, and #12.  It will be a huge game this Thursday when Seattle visits San Francisco.

The computer didn't have Cleveland the worst last week, Kansas City was, and they remain there this week.

1Chicago89.9974-181.685+2, +0.946
2Houston88.0155-180.625-1, -5.236
3New England87.3593-382.838+2, -0.819
4Atlanta86.7846-078.189+0, -2.086
5NY Giants86.7324-280.467+11, +5.555
6Green Bay86.4993-383.692+7, +3.375
7San Francisco86.3464-282.729-5, -2.793
8Seattle85.8004-283.705+2, +1.078
9Denver84.8123-382.268-1, -0.918
10Baltimore84.1415-178.380-1, -1.344
10St Louis84.1413-383.868+1, -0.087
12Arizona83.5414-281.947-6, -2.978
13Minnesota83.2164-278.960-6, -3.058
14Dallas82.5502-386.014+7, +2.833
15Washington82.2193-381.575+5, +2.280
16Miami82.1803-381.744-4, -1.183
17NY Jets81.2093-380.895-2, -0.010
18Tampa Bay80.4012-379.613+8, +4.163
19Cincinnati79.5853-380.488-5, -2.408
20Detroit79.4722-381.828+2, +0.659
21Buffalo79.2483-382.048+4, +1.993
22Philadelphia78.9533-381.534-3, -1.042
23Pittsburgh78.9092-379.086-6, -2.123
24San Diego78.5683-377.633-6, -1.896
25Carolina78.1421-482.408+2, +2.467
26Indianapolis76.6702-382.697-3, -1.653
27Cleveland76.4111-581.374+4, +3.214
28Jacksonville75.5661-482.897-4, -1.971
29New Orleans75.3231-478.770-1, +0.846
30Oakland73.9711-482.851-1, +0.175
31Tennessee73.4852-482.590-1, -0.022
32Kansas City71.4241-580.744+0, -1.507

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports Available for Colorado Springs

The reports I've advertised are now available for men and women who play in USTA league play in Colorado Springs.  Contact me to get more details and request a report.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports Available for Denver Men

The reports I've advertised are now available for men who play in USTA league play in Denver.  Contact me to get more details and request a report.

Estimated Dynamic NTRP for Mixed Leagues Available

In the Pacific Northwest, our mixed leagues are "early start" leagues in that our 2013 season starts in the fall of 2012.  Leagues have already started, but as a reference, I have now posted the ratings for the 2012 regular season as a reference for how players would be rated if just their mixed results were used.

Should anyone not be aware, the rating the USTA calculates for a player is based solely on their play in men's or women's league action unless they do not play enough matches, in which case a "mixed exclusive" rating is calculated.  The mixed ratings posted would be an estimate of what a player's mixed exclusive rating would be.

I will be calculating Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings for the 2013 season.  I may post results periodically, but if you are interested in regular reports, contact me directly.


Analyzing the 10/14/12 AP Poll

Here is week 7 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 7 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

One can see by scrolling through the diagrams below how, in general, consensus is being built as the games are played.  The range of votes for the top 6 is the narrowest it has been all year.

My computer still says the voters are off a bit with LSU being much too high at #6 (computer has them #16, it can't forget 12-10 over a 1-5 Auburn and giving up 22 to a 3-3 non-FBS Towson).  And right behind LSU at #7 is Ohio State, but they have votes as low as #22 but as high as #4.  My computer says the lowest vote isn't even right though having them at #25.  Barely beating a 3-4 Cal and only beating a 1-5 UAB by 14, both at home, and beating a 4-3 MSU by only 1 and a 2-4 Indiana by only 3 do not impress.

College Football Week 7 Season Projections - Only two undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 7 are now available.

There are now two teams projected to finished undefeated; Kansas State and Alabama.  Both are projected at just over 70%.

Of the teams projected to have one loss, Rutgers has the best chance at none but Florida and Oregon are very close behind all just over 35%.

It is important to note that these projections do not include any conference championship games.  In this regard, K-State and Rutgers have an advantage.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Kansas St12-
Northern Illinois11-

College Football Week 7 Ratings and Rankings - K-State stays #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

For the first time in several weeks, we have a #1 team stick around for 2 consecutive weeks.  Kansas State stays #1 but just barely over Oklahoma.  Both had wins over highly rated 1-loss teams, OU's being more impressive having them leap in the ratings.  Alabama falls to #2 and another Big-12 team in Texas Tech is up to #4.  Oregon slots in at #5 and Florida #6.

Why does the computer give the Big-12 more props than the SEC?  Simply put, they have gone 26-3 in non-conference games while the SEC has gone 31-7.  And the Big-12's losses are only to 6-1 Northern Illinois and Rice (both by Kansas), and to Arizona by Oklahoma State.  And they have a win (Texas 66-31 over Ole Miss) in the one head to head with the SEC.  Plus they have wins over a 4-2 Iowa, 4-3 Miami, and 4-2 Maryland.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

1Kansas St101.6616-070.288+0, +6.601
3Alabama94.7386-069.795-1, -0.116
4Texas Tech92.7635-174.348+7, +9.725
5Oregon89.7106-061.606-1, -0.437
6Florida86.9166-073.222+0, -0.528
7South Carolina85.8696-170.105-2, -2.647
8Iowa St85.8384-277.525+13, +7.475
9Texas A&M83.6815-169.129-2, -1.217
10Notre Dame83.6786-071.210-1, -0.759
11Texas83.4344-277.001-3, -1.022
12Southern Cal81.1345-169.265+4, +1.725
13Arizona St80.9815-165.706+2, +0.889
14Oregon St80.8235-072.542+14, +5.313
15TCU80.6185-163.067+19, +7.092
16LSU80.5156-166.209+1, +1.156
17Georgia80.2615-167.166-4, -1.590
18West Virginia80.1025-171.861-8, -4.001
19Michigan79.4874-269.572-5, -0.824
20Florida St79.4786-157.121-1, +0.433
21Stanford78.6644-274.400-3, -0.680
22Mississippi St78.4366-059.378+0, +0.586
23Rutgers77.6416-060.622+0, -0.165
24Utah St77.5825-266.560+14, +5.204
25Ohio State77.4967-065.236-5, -1.119

Friday, October 12, 2012

How accurate are the Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings?

A question I get periodically is regarding the accuracy of my Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings.  They are just an estimate, but feedback I get from folks that look at them is that they are quite accurate.  When chatting with an opponent at a recent mixed match, I was told it was spot on in predicting early start bump ups.

But a recent comment to my post on the availability of Estimated Dynamic NTRP reports pointed out that some players were bumped up to 4.5 that had estimated ratings below 4.0 and thus shouldn't have been.  So I thought I'd take a look at that exact list to see what I could learn.

There were 19 women in Northwest Washington that were on the 2012 early start list that were bumped to 4.5.  Of these 19, my current ratings show 12 having an estimated rating at or above the 4.0 threshold, and 16 of the 19 at or above 3.95.  Given my ratings are an estimate and 0.05 is probably an acceptable margin for error, predicting 84% of the bump ups isn't too bad.

Of the 3 that were not predicted, one had a very good record but played with some good partners which can hold ones rating down, another had a good record and won some playing up at 4.5, but also lost some she shouldn't have at 4.0, and the last hovered right around 3.9 but had a couple bad One Doubles results that weren't used for early start ratings which could explain the difference.

Also, one of the players started as a self rated 3.5.  My ratings both predicted their DQ at 3.5 and the bump up to 4.5.

I'll try to take a look at others to see how the early starts were predicted, but 80+% isn't too bad.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Analyzing the 10/7/12 AP College Football Poll

Here is week 6 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 6 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

And we have a shake-up.  My computer said FSU and LSU were too high and that proved correct with their losses and their falls to #9 and #12, which is actually still too high, but that is another story.  South Carolina, Florida, and West Virginia benefit leapfrogging even K-State at now #6.

The voters are most confused by Ohio State having them everywhere from #4 to #17, although Stanford and Louisville also have wide ranges of #10 to #25.

College Football Week 6 Ratings and Rankings - New #1 in Kansas State

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

For the 3rd week in a row, we have a new #1.  All of the big games and upsets and big scores have caused a significant shakeup in the ratings and the result is that Kansas State moves to #1.  They get a big boost by Oklahoma, their biggest game to date, beating up on former undefeated Texas Tech.  Idle Alabama stays #2 and aforementioned Oklahoma moves to #3.  Oregon improved their rating but got passed by Oklahoma while South Carolina jumps 3 spots to #5.

Last week's #1, Florida, falls to #6, they won but not by as much as expected and were hurt by former opponent Kentucky not doing as well as expected.  Other big winners yesterday, Notre Dame and West Virginia, move up to #9 and #10, and the computer didn't like LSU before, having them #14 and they fall a bit more to #17 this week.  The computer also hadn't been fond of FSU and they too fall more to #19.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

1Kansas St95.0605-062.664+6, +9.731
2Alabama94.8545-067.508+0, +3.952
4Oregon90.1476-061.547-1, +2.537
5South Carolina88.5166-068.713+3, +3.944
6Florida87.4445-072.882-5, -3.838
7Texas A&M84.8984-168.013-2, -1.990
8Texas84.4564-172.671-2, -0.977
9Notre Dame84.4375-071.246+2, +4.351
10West Virginia84.1035-069.513+3, +4.336
11Texas Tech83.0384-169.053-2, -1.498
12Baylor81.8753-172.167+3, +2.758
13Georgia81.8515-167.447-9, -5.240
14Michigan80.3113-272.324+24, +7.609
15Arizona St80.0924-166.289-3, +0.217
16Southern Cal79.4094-167.321+5, +1.869
17LSU79.3595-163.750-3, -0.089
18Stanford79.3444-172.994+2, +1.723
19Florida St79.0455-157.178-9, -5.490
20Ohio State78.6156-064.913+8, +4.254
21Iowa St78.3634-169.406+10, +4.656
22Mississippi St77.8505-057.108+2, +1.402
23Rutgers77.8065-059.820+0, +0.808
24San Jose St76.5454-166.144+5, +2.234
25Arizona76.3623-371.139+2, +1.202

Saturday, October 6, 2012

The computer's view of the 3 upsets today

The first big weekend that had some of the top teams playing each other resulted in some important results.

Computer #4 Georgia visited #8 South Carolina with South Carolina favored by both Vegas and the computer.  The computer had the winner right, but it was by far more than expected and South Carolina should move up.

Computer #1 Florida hosted #14 LSU and LSU was favored in the game.  The computer has not been impressed with LSU and picked Florida big and they won, but not by quite as much as picked.  Nevertheless, the computer got the upset right and pick against the spread.  Because they won by less than expected though, Florida could lose a few ratings points, but it depends on all the other games too of course.

Computer #10 Florida State state visited #56 NC State and was favored, but the computer has also not been impressed with FSU having them only #10 while the polls have them #3.  So the computer did not pick the upset, but did pick Clemson against the spread and got that right.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Interesting College Football Week 6 Upset Picks - Florida, TTU, Syracuse, Purdue, Northwestern

The computer has several teams rated a bit differently than the polls and apparently different than Vegas as there are several key games where the computer is picking the upset.

LSU visits Florida, and frankly LSU has not impressed in some of their games while my computer has Florida #1.  But Vegas has LSU as the favorite.  The computer says pick the upset.

Oklahoma visits Texas Tech as a road favorite, OU having a loss but being the only one ranked in the polls.  But the computer really likes Texas Tech to win.

Syracuse hosts Pitt in a similar scenario to the above, although the computer's opinion on Syracuse pulling the upset is not quite as strong.

Similarly, Purdue hosts a disappointing Michigan squad as the underdog but the computer likes Purdue to win.

Staying in the B1G, Northwestern goes on the road to Penn State as an underdog but the computer likes them to win.

These 5 games will each go a long way to determining what happens in their respective conferences and have the traditional or recently better team favored, but the computer, looking at just the data, likes the underdogs.  Will tradition prevail or is the computer right?

College Football Week 5 BCS Algorithm Ratings and Rankings - A first look at a BCS compatible algorithm

I post my regular ratings starting with week 1 of the season, but also calculate a set of ratings using a BCS compatible algorithm.  The latter does not use margin of victory, which makes it a far less accurate predictor of games, and also makes the ratings frankly pretty silly looking the first few weeks of the year, so I haven't posted them until this week.

The top-25 is below, and you will see that Florida is #1 here as they are in the regular ratings.  LSU makes a big move to #2 and they are followed by K-State, Georgia, and Oregon State.

Where is Alabama?  They are down at #9.  Understanding why this is can be educational as to why the BCS handicaps the computers.

Alabama has played a 2-loss Michigan, a 2-loss Mississippi, 4-loss Arkansas and Florida Atlantic, and a 1-loss Western Kentucky.  Because the computer can't take into account the margin of victory, while undefeated, the schedule isn't that strong and no single team is very strong.

LSU on the other hand just made a big leap and is rated higher because they beat a 1-loss Washington who also beat a 1-loss Stanford who beat a 1-loss Southern Cal.  So even though their average schedule is weaker, they have a very good quality win.

And Florida just has a much stronger average schedule.

What about Oregon?  They are way down at #13 and haven't played a team with fewer than 2 losses.

Most of the computers the BCS uses don't publish ratings early in the year because of the challenges with rating a team properly when you don't use the score, but also because most of the algorithms haven't been tuned to do so.  The result is some pretty fishy looking rankings.

Kenneth Massey does publish his and presently has a top-3 of Oregon State, Notre Dame, and Texas Tech.  Alabama is #8, Oregon #16, and LSU #13.  Not completely far fetched, but also likely not that accurate.  To be fair, Ken does have an algorithm that does use the score and it has Alabama #1, Oregon #4, and LSU #6.

Billingsley also publishes, but he also assumed starting rankings from the end of last year which would seem to be a violation of the rules for a BCS computer.  This is how he manages to have reasonable results.  Of course, he still has Michigan in his top-20 (#19) and Arkansas in the top-50!

Colley has rankings published and similar to Massey has Oregon State and Notre Dame at the top.  Jeff Sagarin also publishes and has the most reasonable results.

1Florida83.0364-067.454+0, -3.685
2LSU81.6925-059.142+8, +2.887
3Kansas St81.4914-058.859-1, -2.570
4Georgia80.9495-061.141+1, -0.981
5Oregon St79.6233-071.840+14, +3.534
6Notre Dame79.5214-066.180+0, -2.399
7Texas Tech79.0764-062.836+9, +2.333
8Florida St78.6345-055.935-5, -4.855
9Alabama78.2495-062.625+4, +0.341
10South Carolina77.8745-065.503-1, -1.941
11Texas77.3854-064.832-4, -4.534
12Washington76.4863-164.891+33, +6.256
13Oregon75.6435-056.819-9, -7.198
14West Virginia75.5464-060.318+15, +2.378
15Ohio State75.4715-061.891+26, +3.904
16Stanford75.3513-169.083-8, -5.113
17Mississippi St74.7734-055.802+8, +0.910
18Texas A&M74.7543-163.281-7, -3.588
19Clemson74.5634-165.003-5, -2.618
20Iowa St73.6633-165.960+2, -1.191
21Rutgers73.5484-060.380+18, +1.832
22Missouri73.0803-269.552+1, -1.147
23Oklahoma72.9522-161.389-3, -2.914
24Purdue72.6413-165.204+3, -0.746
25Tennessee72.4603-263.555-13, -5.599

Monday, October 1, 2012

NFL Week 4 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 3 ratings.  You'll see that the teams would basically swap positions 4 and 8, but a few other teams move slightly as well.

1Houston94.4194-080.812+0, +0.019
2Atlanta90.4174-079.622+1, +0.005
3Arizona90.2514-082.601-1, -0.492
4New England88.7252-284.404+0, -0.149
5San Francisco88.2713-183.746+2, +0.665
6Baltimore87.9573-180.701-1, -0.094
7Denver87.8612-284.014-1, +0.015
8Chicago86.5443-179.991+0, +0.533
9Green Bay86.0413-180.811+2, +2.170
10San Diego83.9903-178.151+0, +0.010
11Minnesota83.8003-179.858+1, +0.243
12Seattle83.5831-383.751-3, -1.973
13Cincinnati83.4133-181.460+0, -0.017
14Miami82.4611-385.242+0, -0.020
15Pittsburgh82.2621-282.387+0, +0.050
16Philadelphia81.6383-183.475+0, -0.179
17NY Jets81.3402-282.905+0, +0.121
18NY Giants80.6612-277.784+0, -0.207
19Dallas79.4242-281.667+0, -0.460
20St Louis79.2872-281.660+0, -0.292
21Washington78.7102-278.857+0, -0.081
22Buffalo78.6252-279.384+0, +0.006
23Jacksonville78.1451-384.211+0, +0.093
24Detroit77.8031-381.535+0, +0.088
25Tampa Bay75.8811-378.247+0, -0.184
26Indianapolis75.2121-281.829+1, +0.211
27Cleveland75.0300-482.908-1, -0.067
28Oakland74.9591-384.143+0, -0.001
29Tennessee74.7831-386.234+0, +0.001
30Carolina74.1931-379.452+0, -0.106
31Kansas City72.4431-380.970+0, +0.004
32New Orleans70.8470-477.847+0, +0.078

And in the projected records, Green Bay would go from being 9-7 and tied with Minnesota for the last spot to being 11-5 and tied with Chicago for the division, and since they currently have the tie-breaker would be projected to win it.  Seattle would fall from 9-7 and tied for the last wildcard spot to 7-9 and out of the playoff hunt.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Green Bay11-525.016.124.9
San Francisco11-524.719.221.8
San Diego11-524.116.423.7
New England10-624.824.217.4
NY Giants8-824.419.021.7
NY Jets7-923.022.216.9
Tampa Bay5-1129.827.118.1
St Louis5-1125.724.317.4
Kansas City4-1228.818.926.3
New Orleans2-1430.823.722.4

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.