Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Distribution of players across levels by gender

2023 year-end ratings were published a few days ago and I've started doing my stats with bump rates by section and gender, bump rates by level and gender, strange bumps, and player counts with year-end ratings.  Next up, distribution of players by level and gender.

This analysis looks at the players with year-end C ratings for 2023 and for comparison 2022.  The bar represents the number of players and the annotation is what percentage that number is of the total.

First up, players by level overall.

We see the standard "normal" distribution with just some small changes from last year.  There was some growth in raw numbers at lower levels, 2.5 thru 3.5, but the 4.0 and 4.5 levels shrunk slightly.  However, while there were more 3.5s in 2023, the percentage that are 3.5s went down slightly due to the significant growth of 3.0s.

Since we saw that generally speaking more players are bumped up than down, this is likely due to new players coming in at lower levels and getting year-end ratings while the higher levels perhaps have some players no longer playing USTA League.  I will have to do some analysis on this to see if that is the case.

Next, the distribution of women by level.

Similar story here, but the increased number of 3.0s was a bit larger and the 3.5s slightly less.

Last, the distribution of men by level.

The men had noticeably more 3.0s and 3.5s, but from a percentile distribution standpoint, over 1% fewer 4.0s and nearly 1% fewer 4.5s.

Stay tuned for more!

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Are the number of players with ratings going up or down?

Earlier this year, I wrote about the USTA's press release on tennis growth and in that post I introduced a new chart showing participation based on the number of players who receive year-end ratings.  Now that ratings are out, I can add 2023 to the mix.

Here is the chart showing the number of players with year-end ratings since 2012.

We see the metric has gone up slightly from 2022 (231K to 238K), it is still lower than all the other years from 2012 to 2021.

There are a number of possible reasons the number has gone up including:

• We are still in the post-COVID recovery period where players continue to come back to league play
• The COVID tennis boom we heard about from the TIA and USTA is finally resulting in some of those new players joining league play
• Some sections with secondary leagues that didn't count for ratings in the past are now counting these leagues, so players that play in them are now getting year-end ratings.

The bulk of the increase from 2022 is with C rated players which are up around 6K on their own.

2024 will be interesting to see where we end up!

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - What strange or unexpected bumps were there?

2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings are out and I've taken a look at bump rates by section and by level, and before slicing the data more, I thought I'd take a step back and just look for edge case bumps we don't see often or appear to be glitches in the system.

First up, the double bump.  Bumps up and down happen, in typical years about 15% of players are bumped, around 9% go up and 6% go down.  It varies from year to year but that is roughly what you can expect.  Bumps up or down just one level are the most common of course, but do double bumps happen?  If so, how often?

For bumps up, I show 29 players whose 2023 year-end C rating was at least 1.0 higher than their C rating they were using for 2023.  So it does happen, but not a lot.  What about a triple bump up?  I found one, sort of, but it was actually a glitch (see below).

For bumps down, I only found one player that has this, sort of.  I say sort of because they were a 2022 year-end 4.5C, but were able to appeal down to 4.0, and at 2023 year-end received a 3.5C.  So they were a double bump down, but "benefited" from appealing down and being able to play 4.0, although they still played 4.5 and only played one Tri-Level match on the 4.0 court.  To be honest, the 3.5C doesn't appear warranted, but the USTA gave it to them.

There is always interesting year-end ratings around some players that go to Nationals.  Here are a few I've seen that are a little baffling:

1. A team finishes 3rd at Nationals, and no one is bumped up other than a player who went 4-5 on the year.  Others on the roster won 70+% of their matches on the year including 3-0, 4-1 or 5-1 at Nationals and weren't bumped up.
2. A 5.5C takes time off and comes back as a 5.0S and goes 9-0 including 4-0 at Nationals and gets a 4.5C.

For what it is worth, my ratings don't agree with either of the above.

How about some bumps that appear to be glitches or bugs or due to something other than the algorithm?

• A 5.0C takes time off and comes back as a 5.0S and goes 1-2 playing 5.0.  What is their year-end rating?  2.5C!  Clearly something amiss here, I'm guessing it will be fixed and changed at some point, and in fact as I just checked as I write this it has been, so good on the USTA for fixing it.  I saw a few more similar to this that have also been fixed.
• A 3.5S played in 2022 and was DQ'd to 4.0 mid-year, but somehow got a 2.5C year-end rating.  Clearly a glitch and it was fixed, but not for months it seems so the 4.0C they got this year looked like a triple bump but wasn't once the fixed 4.0C from last year was recorded.
• A 4.5S plays only Mixed, loses two matches early, then goes 14-1 and gets an M rating as expected, but it is a 4.0M!  My ratings had them closer to a 5.0 than a 4.0.
• A 5.0T self-rates as a 5.0 and plays 5.0, does go 0-3, but ends up as a 3.5C!

For some of these that are glitches, the USTA does correct them as I note so that is good.  But a few are outstanding and make one scratch their head.

What crazy bumps have you seen?

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Bump rates by level and gender

The 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings have been out for just over a day now and I started doing analysis with bump rates by section and gender, now on to slicing it another way, by level and gender.

First, here are the bump rates just by level.

This isn't at all unexpected, lower levels have more bump ups, higher levels have more bump downs.

Breaking it out by gender, first, the women.

The women have slightly more bumps down as the level gets higher, but looks very similar to the general trends.

And here is how the men look.

After seeing the women, as you might expect, much the same, just with fewer bumps down as the level goes up.

Stay tuned for more!

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Section bump rates by gender

The USTA published 2023 year-end NTRP ratings about 24 hours ago, so that means it is time to start doing some analysis to see what we can learn.

To start, we'll look at bump rates overall and by section including by gender.  In all the charts below, it is showing the percentage of players bumped down (purple) or up (green).

First, the overall rates were:

• Stayed - 84.9%
• Bumped up - 9.5%
• Bumped down - 5.6%

This is very consistent with most years.  For the women:

• Stayed - 84.5%
• Bumped up - 9.7%
• Bumped down - 5.7%

And then men:

• Stayed - 85.6%
• Bumped up - 9.1%
• Bumped down - 5.3%

Not a lot of variation, the men are bumped up slightly less than the women, the bump down percentages are about the same.  The number that stayed the same level is down about 1% point from last year.

Here are the overall bump rates by section.

Last year was pretty consistent across sections, but this year is even more so.  Every section had more bumps up than down, between 8 and 10% bumps up and around 5% bumps down.  No section stands out having an abnormally high number of bumps up.  Generally speaking, there were no radical changes to adjustments.

Taking a look at the same stats but by gender, here are the women.

Nothing is remarkably different here.  NorCal does get over 11% bumps up, but still pretty consistent.

And the men.

Texas is the only one over 9% at around 11% and some other variation, but nothing more significant as far as radical changes between sections.

Stay tuned for more.

2023 year-end NTRP ratings have been published!

The annual post-Thanksgiving wait is over, the USTA has published year-end ratings for 2023!  As I write this, there are at least some players with 2023 year-end ratings on TennisLink.

To check what your rating is, you can go to TennisLink and look yourself up, or login and it should show your rating.  Make sure to check the date and that it is 12/31/2023 as that is what all new ratings should show.  If it still says a different date, yours may not be updated yet, or you didn't play enough matches to get a new rating.

Stay tuned for analysis of the ratings, but if anyone has any questions or wants to get a report to understand why they were/weren't bumped up or down, contact me!  And I'm always interested in situations where players successfully appeal, so if you do that and it is granted, drop me a note.

I'll be doing some of my usual analysis in the next few days, looking at general bump rates, then drilling in by section and by gender and level and section (those links to 2022's analysis) to see what we can tell about how the USTA handled things this time around.  So stay tuned!

2023 USTA League Nationals are over - When will ratings be published?

With the last weekend of USTA League Nationals complete, the wait now begins for 2023 year-end rating levels to be published.

The USTA generally publishes the year-end ratings the week after Thanksgiving and I'd speculated it would be November 29th or 30th, and yesterday the USTA sent out an e-mail saying it would be the 30th.

When on the 30th?  Traditionally they publish at midnight EST so that means staying up late to repeatedly hit refresh on your browser to see what your year-end level is.  Sometimes there are delays, but usually they hit the date and time.

As we approach the date, I'll try to post some analysis of the 2023 season and perhaps some general predictions about bump rates, and will definitely plan to do analysis after ratings are published.  And as always, I can do reports using my ratings at any time for players that want to see more detail about how my estimated ratings show their ratings progression to look and where they are likely to end up.  Contact me if interested.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 7 Recap - The last four new National Champs

Week 7, the last one, of USTA League Nationals is over, and four new champions were crowned.

The 18 & Over 7.0 had 2-1 wins in every match with SoCal beating NorCal in one semi and Texas beating Southern in the other, then Texas won the final.

The 18 & Over 9.0 had Mid-Atlantic beat Missouri Valley 3-0 and Southern beat NorCal 2-1 in the semis, then Mid-Atlantic won the final 2-1.

The 40 & Over 8.0 had two 2-1 wins in the semis for Florida over Middle States and SoCal over Eastern, and SoCal won the final 3-0.

The 40 & Over 6.0 also had 2-1 wins in the semis and a 3-0 win in the final with NorCal beating Middle States and Eastern beating Caribbean in the semis, and then NorCal won the final.

With that, Nationals is over, and now we wait for year-end ratings.  The USTA sent a note out saying 11/30 is the target date, so under two weeks to go!

Congratulations to all the champions.

What ties did we have for week 7 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

The last weekend of Nationals is on-going and the round-robin has wrapped up.  Here is how things have played out in the matches, all being play in Orlando at the National Campus and all Mixed.

The 18 & Over 9.0 found three teams unblemished at 4-0, Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, and Southern, and a 3-way tie at 3-1 for the last spot.  Midwest was a court back at 7-5 but Florida and Missouri Valley were tied at 8-4 as well as tied on sets lost (10), so it went to games lost and Missouri Valley lost fewer, 91 vs 94, and took the spot.  The teams advancing were numbers 1, 3, 4, and 6 in the simulation, so not too bad!

The 18 & Over 7.0 also had three 4-0 teams and a 3-way tie at 3-1, the unblemished teams being SoCal, Southern, and Texas.  NorCal was the best 3-1 team with a 9-3 court record, two better than Caribbean at 7-5 and New England at 6-6.  The teams advancing were numbers 1, 2, 3, and 7 in the simulation, again not bad!

The 40 & Over 6.0 still has a few matches to complete as I write this, but it appears the semi-finalists are decided with a 4-0 Eastern, 3-1 Caribbean and Middle States a court ahead of 3-1 Southern (8-4 vs 7-5), and then it appears NorCal, presently 3-0, has a spot wrapped up as they can do no worse than 3-1 / 8-4 which would be the fourth team at that record.  SoCal could also get to 3-1 / 8-4 if they sweep their last match, but they've already lost more sets than the others.  Again, the simulation had the advancing teams 1, 2, 3, and 7!

Last, the 40 & Over 8.0 had a nice tidy four 4-0 teams, Florida, SoCal, Eastern, and Middle States.  The simulation had these teams 2, 3, 4, and 6!

Congratulations to the semi-finalists!

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 9.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 9.0 mixed.

Teams: 15 (no Caribbean or Hawaii)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 5%

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 73% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.49 / 4.25

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.43 / 4.35

Favorites: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, NorCal
Contenders: Florida, Middle States, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, SoCal, Southern, Texas

Big group of contenders.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 7.0 mixed.

Teams: 16 (no Hawaii)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 16%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 82% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.77 / 3.44

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.64 / 3.51

Favorites: NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Middle States

Big ranges on team strengths and schedule strengths, leads to a pretty top-heavy set of favorites/contenders.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 6.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 6.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 18%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 87% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.26 / 2.97

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.17 / 3.02

Favorites: Eastern, Middle States, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Northern, Southern

This simulation is a bit top-heavy, just a total of six teams as favorites or contenders.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 8.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.06 / 3.85

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.01 / 3.85

Favorites: Caribbean, Florida, Middle States
Contenders: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, Missouri Valley, PNW, SoCal

Looks like a good group vying for the last spot.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 6 Recap - Only two new National Champs

Week 6 of USTA League Nationals is over, and only two new champions were crowned on the least busy weekend of Nationals this year.  Next weekend Nationals wrap up with four Mixed events in Orlando and San Diego.

You can see prior recaps here.

The 40 & Over 7.0 saw NorCal beat Mid-Atlantic in one semi 2-1, while Eastern beat Florida 3-0 in the other (but every match in a super tie-break!), before NorCal won the final 2-1, one of the won courts in a super tie-break.  Close!

The 9.0 level saw Texas beat New England 2-1 and PNW beat Midwest 3-0, and then PNW won the final 3-0, all in straight sets.

Congratulations to the new champs!

What ties did we have for week 6 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

This weekend's Nationals round-robin is complete so we can take a look at who has made the semis and what ties there were.  This weekend was a light one with just the 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed going on.

For the 7.0 level, there were four 2-0 teams after day one, but just two ended up 4-0, NorCal who didn't even drop a court, and Florida.  There were four 3-1 teams behind them and Eastern and Mid-Atlantic took the last two semi-finalist spots with better court records than Missouri Valley and Middle States.  Florida and NorCal were the top-2 picks to make the semis, and Mid-Atlantic and Eastern were 5th and 7th most likely, so the simulation did pretty well.

At 9.0, it was even more competitive with a bunch of 1-1 teams after day one, and the top-6 teams all being  3-1.  New England, PNW, and Midwest had the three best court records, and then Texas took the 4th spot being tied on court record at 8-4 but losing fewer sets than Southern.  All four of the semi-finalists were in the simulation's contenders.

Good luck the semis tomorrow!

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 7.0 Mixed

The sixth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 7.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 12%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 5

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.66 / 3.43

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.61 / 3.49

Favorites: Florida
Contenders: Eastern, Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Missouri Valley, NorCal, SoCal, Texas

On paper, very competitive with not that many expected to be undefeated and a large group of contenders and just one favorite.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 9.0 Mixed

The sixth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 9.0 mixed.

Teams: 16 (Caribbean missing)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 11%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.54 / 4.19

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.42 / 4.26

Favorites: Florida
Contenders: Hawaii, Intermountain, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, NorCal, PNW, SoCal

On paper, very competitive with not that many expected to be undefeated and a large group of contenders and just one favorite.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Drilling in to what sections make USTA League Nationals semi-finals the most - Counts by division

USTA League Nationals are over for the Adult leagues and I took a look at how many times each section made the semi-finals overall, now it is time to break it down by division.

First we look at the 18 & Over division.

Southern led the overall totals and leads for 18 & Over too, and Intermountain isn't far behind despite making only one semi this year.  They made a whopping 7 of 11 semi-finals in 2021.

Next, 40 & Over.

Southern leads here too, but Texas is second and three sections are tied behind them.  Texas made the semis in 75% (6 of 8) of the events this year.

Last, 55 & Over.

Southern Cal leads here also going to 75% (6 of 8) of the semis this year, but went to 7 of 8 in 2021!  Southern falls all the way to second.

What sections make the semis at USTA League Nationals the most often? Southern and SoCal lead!

With the Adult Nationals (18 & Over, 40 & Over, and 55 & Over) complete, I thought I'd take a look at how often each of the sections make the semis.

I'll probably end up slicing this data by gender and division, but to start we'll just look at the total across both genders and all three divisions over the past three years (2021-2023).

We see that Southern and SoCal are well ahead of the rest with 41 and 35 appearances respectively, but Midwest, Florida, and Texas make a good showing each with 25 or more semi-final appearances.

All of the sections do show up, although 2022 was the only one of the three years were every section wasn't represented with Southwest missing out.

In the above, i used 2021 thru 2023 as that is post-COVID.  If we look at the three years pre-COVID it is similar, but not the same.

We see Southern still leads with nearly the same total, but Texas and Florida on close behind, SoCal drops down to mid-pack and PNW moves up some.

Still, there is a clear trend of the same handful of Sections consistently making the semis more than the rest, and Southern has been at the top throughout this period.

What do you think?  Is this expected?  Southern is by far the largest section and teams have to go through more playoffs that most other areas to get to Nationals, are they more battle tested?

Or do warm weather sections have an advantage in that players can more easily play year-round and continue to improve or be sharp come Nationals?

Should the USTA do something to give the smaller sections a better chance at making the semis more regularly?

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 5 Recap - 9 new champions crowned

Week 5 of 2023 USTA League Nationals is over, and with all of the Adult (18 & Over, 40 & Over, and 55 & Over) are complete.  We only have a couple weekends of Mixed Nationals left on the calendar the next two weekends.

You can see prior recaps here.

This weekend had 9 events going on, the busiest of the year.

The 40 & Over division wrapped up this weekend with the 4.0 level in San Diego.

The women's event saw two 3-1 wins with Southern beating Florida and Midwest beating SoCal in the semis, and then Southern swept the final 4-0.

For the men Texas beat Mid-Atlantic 3-1 and Middle States swept Midwest 4-0 before a tight 2-2 final with Middle States taking it losing 4 fewer games.

The 55 & Over division also wrapped up but with two levels, 7.0 and 9.0 in Orlando.

The 7.0 women had two 2-1 wins in the semis for Midwest over Hawaii and SoCal over Southwest, and then a 2-1 win for SoCal in the final.

The 7.0 men also had 2-1 wins in each semi and the final with Southern beating Eastern and SoCal beating Caribbean with Southern taking the final.

At the 9.0 level, the women's event had Eastern beat New England and Florida beat SoCal, both by 2-1 margins, before Florida won the final 3-0.

The 9.0 men had two 3-0 wins in the semis, SoCal over Middle States and NorCal over Eastern, and NorCal took battle of California 2-1.

Then, Mixed 18 & Over got going in Arizona with three levels playing.

The 6.0 event had Southern beat PNW 3-0 and NorCal take out Middle States 2-1 with Southern winning the final 2-1.

At 8.0, New England and SoCal both won 2-1 over PNW and Florida respectively, with SoCal winning the final by a 2-1 score.

And at 10.0, the semis were both won 2-1 by SoCal over NorCal and PNW over Mid-Atlantic and then SoCal won the final 3-0.

Congratulations to the new National Champions!

What ties did we have for week 5 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

The round-robin of this weekend's USTA League Nationals is complete (or nearly so) and we have 9 sets of semi-finalists.

The 55 & Over 7.0 was played in Orlando and the women had two 4-0 teams in Midwest and Southwest, then a huge 6-way tie at 3-1 for two spots.  SoCal and Hawaii were 9-3 on courts so got the spots ahead of Southern and Texas (both 8-4), Eastern (7-5) and PNW (6-6).  PNW is probably a little bummed as they went 3-1 and beat Hawaii, but had to play 4-0 / 11-1 Midwest and lost 3-0.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Two of those teams were favorites in the simulation.

The men also had two 4-0 teams in Southern and SoCal, then a 5-way tie at 3-1.  Caribbean got the 3rd spot at 9-3 on courts, then Eastern and Middle States were 8-4 and Eastern lost fewer sets to take the last spot.  Southern was a surprise, but the other three were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 55 & Over 9.0 was also in Orlando and the women had two 4-0 teams in Eastern and SoCal, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with Florida and New England both 9-3 on courts to take the spots over 8-4 Southern and 7-5 Middle States.  Three of those were favorites and another one a contender in the simulation!

The men had a 6-way tie at 3-1!  SoCal, Eastern, NorCal, and Middle States were all 3-1 or better to take the spots over 7-5 Missouri Valley and 6-6 Texas.  Two of those teams were favorites in the simulation.

The 40 & Over 4.0 was in San Diego and the women had three 4-0 teams in Southern, Midwest, and SoCal and then just two teams at 3-1, Florida being 11-5 on courts to beat out 10-6 Middle States.  Two of these teams were favorites and one was a contender in the simulation.

The men had one 4-0 team in Texas, then a 6-way tie at 3-1.  Midwest was 12-4 and then 11-5 teams Middle States and Mid-Atlantic rounded out the semi-finalists ahead of NorCal and Southern (10-6) and SoCal (9-7).  NorCal was 3-1 / 10-6 and beat Midwest 3-1 head to head, but they were a court back so didn't get the spot.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Three of the semi-finalsts were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 18 & Over Mixed got started in Arizona and the 6.0 level had a nice and tidy four 4-0 teams in Southern, NorCal, Middle States, and PNW.  The simulation nailed this one, these teams being the top-4 teams expected to make the semis!

The 8.0 level had two 4-0 teams in New England and SoCal and then three 3-1 teams for two spots.  Florida was 9-3 getting one spot, and PNW at 8-4 beat out Southern with the same record due to beating them head to head.  Three of the semi-finalists were in the top-6 of the simulation.

Last, the 10.0 level had five 3-1 teams for the four spots and SoCal, PNW, Mid-Atlantic, and NorCal were all 8-4 or better to beat out Eastern at 6-6.  Eastern did beat NorCal head to head but had to play Mid-Atlantic which hurt their court record.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Three of those teams were the top-3 in the simulation, and the other was a contender.

Good luck to all the teams on Sunday!

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 5 Day 1 Observations

Day 1 of week 5 of USTA League Nationals is in the books, here are some observations.

The last 40 & Over event of the year is the 4.0 men and women.

The women have only four 2-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, Midwest, and New England, and the simulation now says it won't stay that way with just a 13% chance of even three 4-0 teams.  Look for Middle States, Eastern, and Florida to be the most likely to break up those top-4.

The men have five 2-0 teams in Texas, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, NorCal, and Southern, and just a 10% chance of four 4-0 teams.  The four semi-finalists are likely to come from those five, but SoCal will try to insert themselves into the mix.

The 55 & Over 7.0 women have five 2-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, Midwest, Southwest, and PNW and just a 3% chance of four 4-0 teams.  Look for NorCal and Texas as the most likely to get in the mix.

The 7.0 men have just four 2-0 teams, Southern, SoCal, Midwest, and PNW, and it is very unlikely we have four or even three remain 4-0.  Carribean and Eastern are most likely to join in.

The 9.0 women have Florida, NorCal, Eastern, SoCal, and Intermountain all 2-0 but just an 8% of four 4-0 teams.  New England is most likely to try to break things up.

The men have have SoCal, Southern, Middle States, and NorCal all 2-0, and a decent 28% chance of three 4-0 at the end.  It is very likely those four are the semi-finalists.

18 & Over Mixed is going on with three levels in play.

The 6.0 has six 2-0 teams, but some play each other and just a 15% chance four remain that way.  The current top-4 of Southern, NorCal, Middle States, and PNW are the ones likely to advance.

The 8.0 also has six 2-0 teams, but just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams.  New England, SoCal, Southern, and Florida are the ones likely to advance.

And the 10.0 has just two 2-0 teams due to just 10 teams there, New England and PNW, and those teams play each other and there will be five teams vying for four spots, NorCal, New England, PNW, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic.

It should be an exciting finish to the round-robin on Saturday.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 10.0 Mixed

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 10.0 mixed.

Teams: 10

Chance of 3 undefeated: 13%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 2%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 54% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.95 / 4.56

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.86 / 4.68

Favorites: Mid-Atlantic, New England, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Middle States, PNW

Just 10 teams, but not as competitive as you might think due to the schedule and a few really strong teams.  With just 10, you might think a 2-2 record has a shot in some scenarios, and it does, a decent 34%.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 6.0 Mixed

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 6.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.28 / 2.98

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.15 / 3.03

Favorites: Middle States, NorCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, PNW

Another competitive event with little chance of a lot of undefeated teams and a lot of contenders.  3-1 almost certainly makes the semis, question is how many will be there and what will break the tie.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 8.0 Mixed

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 8.0 mixed.

Teams: 16 (Caribbean missing)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 8%

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 83% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.09 / 3.87

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.05 / 3.96

Favorites: Hawaii, NorCal
Contenders: Eastern, Florida, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, Northern, SoCal, Southern

This appears to be a very competitive event with just two favorites, but they aren't stand out favorites, and a long list of contenders.  Being a three court format, just a few points here and there could be the difference between semis and 10th.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 9.0 Women

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 9.0 women.

Teams: 14

Chance of 3 undefeated: 11%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 0%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 73% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.35 / 4.10

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.32 / 4.22

Favorites: Eastern, Florida, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Mid-Atlantic, New England, NorCal, PNW

This appears to be very competitive with little chance of a lot of 4-0 teams, due to having just 14 teams there.  The schedules aren't quite as even as the men, and while I list four favorites a couple of the contenders are very close, a big tie at 3-1 is very possible.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 9.0 Men

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 9.0 men.

Teams: 15

Chance of 3 undefeated: 4%

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 0%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 79% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.48 / 4.23

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.37/ 4.32

Favorites: NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Florida, Intermountain, Northern, Texas

This appears to be very competitive with little chance of a lot of 4-0 teams, due to having just 15 there, and the closeness of the teams on paper.  The schedules are very even 4.32 to 4.37, but a few teams do stand out as  more likely to get to 4-0 or 3-1.  There is even a 5% chance the last spot goes to a 2-2 team!

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 7.0 Women

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 7.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 36%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 13%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 2%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 80% / 3

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.40 / 3.29

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.46 / 3.35

Favorites: Midwest, Southern, SoCal
Contenders: Caribbean, Missouri Valley, Middle States, Texas

Three teams have most likely records of 4-0, an interestingly just one has a 3-1 most likely record, but there are still a lot of iterations where there is a tie for the last spot.  It could be competitive for that spot.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 7.0 Men

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 7.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 14%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 2%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.57 / 3.35

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.52 / 3.40

Favorites: Caribbean, Eastern, Missouri Valley
Contenders: Hawaii, Middle States, NorCal, SoCal, Texas

Most likely records of 3-1 could occur for the top-7 teams leading to a big tie-breaker.  But three teams have >20% chances of 4-0 so at least one could very well do it.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.