Weather check for the first weekend of 2026 USTA League Nationals - Rain!

The first weekend of USTA League Nationals starts this coming Friday, so we are more than close enough to check and see what the weather forecast is at each location.

There are a bunch of events in Mobile, AL, namely 18 & Over 2.5 Women, 4.5 Men and Women, and 5.0 Men and Women.  Unfortunately, according to Accuweather's 10-day forecast, there is a almost certain chance of rain on Friday and Saturday.

So, that isn't looking promising.  Yes, it is still hurricane season in the Gulf, and yes this rain is from what may become a named storm.  In some years the USTA has avoided Florida and the Southeast the first few weekends of Nationals as hurricane season winds down, but Mobile is up the first week this year and this may be the result.

And no, there are many (any?) real indoor courts in the area, so if it rains, they are hoping for short sets at best or struggling to complete the event at worst.

Also in potential danger is the 18 & Over 3.0 event in Orlando at the National Campus, where rain is forecast as well.

The chance of rain is about the same, just swapped days, but the hours of precipitation is lower, so perhaps less of the event will be disrupted.  There are also some indoor courts at the location but they aren't always available to be used.

Thankfully, sort of, there is an event in the Southwest in Surprise, AZ where the 18 & Over 3.5 event will be played, and I don't think it is going to rain there.

No rain, but hot!  I'm guessing players would take extreme (but dry) heat over rained out matches and a shortened event, but feel free to voice your opinion.

Now, there is a chance of "weather" in any location, it has rained on events in Arizona and California before, but the chance of rain/storms/hurricanes is higher in some locations than others.  Is the USTA right to use facilities they own or have a lot of capacity at the risk of rain?  Or should they primarily go to locations where the risk is lower?

Does a team's full roster go to USTA League Nationals?

Many teams that go to Nationals have reasonably big rosters.  This isn't always the case, but to make it through the regular season, local playoffs, Districts, and Sectionals can sometimes mean there are availability issues along the way and having a bigger roster helps ensure players are available.

But when a team has a big roster and is going to Nationals, does everyone go?

There are different strategies, and sometimes availability dictates the strategy, but some teams go planning to win and take just their best players planning to play them every match, or nearly every match.  But others will take close to the full roster and plan to get everyone that goes at least one match.

I thought it would be interesting to see what teams were on track to do this year, and while I think the deadline to register players for the first week of Nationals has not passed yet, we are getting close and the registration numbers are probably pretty close to who will be going.

For each level and gender, I looked at the roster size of the team, and the number of players registered for Nationals at this point.  I'm showing the smallest, largest, and average for both the full roster and Nationals registrations.

18 & Over 2.5 Women
Rostered (min/max/avg): 7 / 20 / 11.7
Registered (min/max/avg): 5 / 10 / 7.5

The registered counts for Nationals are quite small, one team taking just the minimum, and on average a team only having 2.5 more than the minimum, but they are playing just three courts (5 players).

18 & Over 3.0 Women

Rostered: 11 / 24 / 17.7

Registered: 9 / 17 / 11.5

These teams are larger with 3.5 more than the minimum on average.

18 & Over 3.0 Men

Rostered: 10 / 24 / 15.9

Registered: 8 / 20 / 11.0

Similar to the women, one team taking the minimum, but one team taking a full 20.

18 & Over 3.5 Women

Rostered: 13 / 29 / 18.1

Registered: 9 / 15 / 12.4

Some larger rosters, the registered numbers only creep up a little.

18 & Over 3.5 Men

Rostered: 11 / 24 / 18.6

Registered: 9 / 18 / 12.2

Similar to the women.

18 & Over 4.5 Women

Rostered: 15 / 24 / 18.3

Registered: 8 / 14 / 10.9

These registered counts are slimmer even though they still play five courts.

18 & Over 4.5 Men

Rostered: 14 / 27 / 19.8

Registered: 9 / 17 / 11.5

Also a little smaller than the 3.5 men despite some large regular season rosters.

18 & Over 5.0 Women

Rostered: 7 / 17 / 11.0

Registered: 5 / 7 / 6.1

A surprisingly small number of registered players.  These ladies are playing every match!

18 & Over 5.0 Men

Rostered: 8 / 15 / 12.3

Registered: 5 / 9 / 6.8

Only slightly larger than the women's registered counts.

So in general it appears teams do take a surprisingly small subset of of their rosters, sometimes the minimum, but generally only 2-4 more than the minimum.  Whether this is due to availability, or teams are taking only those they think give them the best chance to win, the registered counts are not that large.

What do you think?  Are the number of players registered for Nationals fewer than you'd think?

Note: Registered counts are as of when I wrote this 5-6 days before the cut-off to register, so registered counts could perhaps inch up.

Week One 2026 USTA League Nationals 18 & Over teams are on TennisLink

TennisLink now shows all of the 18 & Over Nationals with the teams (presumably) registered and planning to attend for the first weekend of Natioinals.  The schedules for the first weekend (less than two weeks away now!) came out late last week and I did some visualizations of the 4.5 and 5.0 championships.

As teams registered on the Match Team Tennis app, one could see the teams, but it always feels more official when they show up on TennisLink.

Here are the team counts for each championship between played October 8-10:

• 2.5 Women - 17
• 3.0 Women - 17
• 3.0 Men - 16
• 3.5 Women - 17
• 3.5 Men - 17
• 4.5 Women - 15
• 4.5 Men - 14
• 5.0 Women - 10
• 5.0 Men - 12

Stay tuned for more.

Visualizing USTA League Nationals round-robin schedules - 2026 18 & Over 5.0 men and women

See this post on the 18 & Over 4.5 men and women for background, but here are the schedule visualizations for the 18 & Over 5.0 men and women.

Hear are the 5.0 women.

A pretty well connected schedule, but that is a lot easier with just 10 teams.

And the 5.0 men.

Fairly well connected, but a could pods with SoCal, PNW, NorCal, Midwest, and Texas, and then Florida, Southwest, Middle States, Missouri Valley, and New England.

What do you think of the schedules?

Visualizing USTA League Nationals round-robin schedules - 2026 18 & Over 4.5 men and women

The USTA has been using a random round-robin format for USTA League Nationals for awhile now, and since the format has just one flight with each team playing a random four other teams, it is always interesting to look at the schedules, who plays who, and what impact that may have on who advances to the semis.

My simulation reports take everything into account to project the chances of each team making the semis, but it is also fun to see a visualization of the schedule too.  I've done that below for the 18 & Over 4.5 men and women.

Here is the visualization for the 4.5 women.

There are no obvious pockets or groups of teams disconnected from others which is good, but a given team could still have a much tougher or weaker schedule than others.  Stay tuned for more taking a look at that aspect of the schedule.

And for the 4.5 men.

Here we see not a completely isolated, but more isolated grouping of teams.  PNW, Northern, Mid-Atlantic, Eastern, and Florida are sort of a pod, and Southern, Texas, Intermountain, Missouri Valley, and Caribbean are another.

What do you think of the schedules?  Do some teams have an obviously easier/harder path to the semis?

2026 USTA League Nationals first week schedule observations

The schedules are out for the first week of 2026 USTA League Nationals and here are a few observations.

Note, all the events the first weekend are 18 & Over so I'll forgo mentioning that all over.

Mobile is the busy site for week one with five events, although two of them are a 3 court format and one is just women, and most don't have the full complement of 17 sections attending which eases the scheduling burden.

The 2.5 women have the full suite of 17 sections attending.  At the 4.5 level, the men have just 14 sections (Hawaii, Southwest, and New England missing), while the women have 15 (Hawaii and Caribbean missing).  And at the 5.0 level, the men have 12 sections (Hawaii, Caribbean, Intermountain, Northern, and Eastern missing) and the women just 10 (Hawaii, Caribbean, SoCal, Southwest, Northern, Missouri Valley, and Mid-Atlantic missing).

At the National Campus in Orlando, the 3.0 men and women play and there are 16 teams for the men, Northern seems to not be sending a team, and 17 for the women.

And in Surprise, the 3.5 men and women play and all 17 sections are sending teams for both.

Stay tuned for more as I look at who plays who.

2026 USTA League Nationals schedules are out! Well, sort of, first weekend is.

The first USTA League Nationals for 2026 starts in just two weeks, and the USTA just got the schedules publishes for the first weekend.

As a reminder, the first weekend of Nationals has the 18 & over 2.5 women, 4.5 men and women, and 5.0 men and women playing in Mobile, the 18 & over 3.5 men and women in Surprise, and 18 & over 3.0 men and women in Orlando.

You can see all the schedules here.  I'll try to have some analysis and observations of the schedules soon.

Are you going to any of these Nationals?  What do you think of your schedule?  If you need help scouting or planning, let me know.