Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Women

It is that time of year!  We are into week 3 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I've done the 18 & Over 4.0 Men, now the 4.0 Women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 14%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.2%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: 0%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.97 / 3.79
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.89 / 3.83
Favorites: SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Florida, Midwest, New England, Texas

Have a chance: Caribbean, Hawaii, Intermountain, MOValley

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 1

There are two favorites, but four each of contenders and those that have a chance.  The last semi-spot is expected to be 3-1 / 12-8 again, but the 6th most likely to make the semis is 2-2 and six more joining them at that record.  This appears to be a competitive event, backed up by the schedule strengths having a small range of 3.83 to 3.89.

Just one team separates themselves in the chance of winning it all and they could be the only team at 4-0.  Only the other favorite is even over an 18% chance of winning it all and all the others are single digits.  So a bunch of teams may compete for the semis, but just the top-2 seem to have a good chance at the title.

Who is expected to be the champ?  SoCal.

What do you think?  Will SoCal win it?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

It is that time of year!  We are into week 3 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

To start this week, here is the 18 & Over 4.0 Men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 23%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 5%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.06 / 3.84
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.99 / 3.91
Favorites: SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Florida, Midwest, NorCal, Texas

Have a chance: Middle States, Eastern

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 4

There are two favorites, but a handful contending for the last two spots, and two others lurking with a chance if things fall their way.

There are four teams with a better than 22% chance of going 4-0 so that record will probably happen, but three more with a better than 16% chance, so this should be competitive.  And the most likely records have the last spot being a 4-way tie at 3-1 / 12-8.

Just two teams have a better than 15% chance of winning it all, and interestingly one of the projected semi-finalists is only 7th most likely to win it all.  That is what happens when a team has an easier schedule, so they are likely to make the semis, but on paper isn't as strong as the other teams, so not as likely to win it all despite making the semis in more of the iterations than some other teams.  The favorite to win it all?  Southern, just barely.

What do you think?  Will Southern win it?

2026 USTA League Nationals week 4 schedules are out

The schedules for the fourth week of USTA League Nationals, to be played October 30-November 1 are now out.

As a reminder, the events that weekend are the 55 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 in Orlando, 18 & Over Mixed 7.0 and 9.0 in Mobile, and 40 & Over Mixed 6.0 and 8.0 in Surprise.

The schedules can be found here.

Weather check for week three of 2026 USTA League Nationals

Week three of USTA League Nationals is this weekend with play in Mobile and Surprise.  After the postponement of the week 1 events in Mobile, and some minor to moderate delays from showers and rain wreaking havoc in Surprise last week, thankfully the weather report looks near perfect.

Mobile looks to be high 70s and sun, and Surprise will be low 80s and sun, but both locations having just light breezes forecast.  Sounds near perfect!

2026 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Recap

Week two of 2026 USTA League Nationals is complete (we think), so time to recap.

The 40 & Over 4.0 event was in Surprise and with play having to ensure 20-30 mph winds and some thunderstorms, they got play in.

The 4.0 women saw Midwest, Texas, Florida, and PNW advance, PNW making it over Southern on the games lost tie-breaker.  That was fortuitous for them as they won their semi over Midwest, and Texas won theirs over Florida, and then PNW won the final.  Remarkably, all the semis and final were 3-2 wins with super tie-breaks involved in deciding matches.  Close!

The 4.0 men saw Texas, Eastern, New England, and Mid-Atlantic advance.  Texas and New England won the semis, and Texas won the final 3-2 with three straight-set wins.

In Orlando, the 40 & Over 4.5 event was played and there was a threat of thunderstorms and I think they moved matches up, but not sure if there were any delays or not.

The 4.5 women had Intermountain, Florida, SoCal, and Southern make the semis.  TennisLink's results are incomplete showing just one semi-final result with Florida beating SoCal, and then SoCal beating Southern in the 3rd/4th match, so Intermountain must have won their semi but it isn't recorded.  And then the result of the final is missing.  Who won?

Update: TennisLink still doesn't show it, but a reader indicates Intermountain won.

The 4.5 men had Florida, Middle States, NorCal, and Eastern advance to the semis.  Heavyweights Florida and Eastern played a semi with Florida advancing 3-2, then Middle States won 3-2 over NorCal.  Florida won the final 4-1.  Match tie-breaks again were part of deciding matches in the close semis.

Congratulations to the new National Champs!

2026 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Day 2 Update

We've reached the end of day 2 of week 2 of USTA League Nationals and the semis are set for the 40 & Over 4.0 and 4.5 events.

The 4.0 women have two 4-0 teams in Midwest and Texas with Florida and PNW joining them at 3-1.  PNW was tied with Southern at 3-1 / 12-8 but won the tie-breaker on fewer games lost.  Close!

The simulation had PNW and Texas as favorites, and Midwest and Florida as contenders, so pretty spot on.  The simulation even said a 3-1 / 12-8 record would make the semis which is what it took.

The 4.0 men also have two 4-0 teams in Texas and Eastern, and two 3-1 teams in New England and Mid-Atlantic.  In the last match on Saturday, MOValley had a chance to go 5-0 and tie Mid-Atlantic but wasn't able to.  Interestingly, Eastern went 4-0 but had the worst court record at 13-7 of the four semi-finalists.  They found a way to win team matches.  And New England went 3-1 but had the best court record at 16-4, their one loss 3-2 to Eastern on one court being an upset.  And these two will play again in one of the semi-finals.

The simulation had New England as a favorite, and Texas having a chance, but Eastern and Mid-Atlantic were surprises.  Kudos to them for coming through.

The 4.5 women have just one 4-0 team in Intermountain, and there were six 3-1 teams for three spots with Florida, SoCal, and Southern getting them, but Southern was tied on courts at 12-8 with PNW and Texas and won the tie-breaker losing fewer sets as well has beating PNW head to head 3-2.

The simulation had Florida and Intermountain as favorites and they came through, and SoCal had a chance, with Southern being the surprise.

Last, the 4.5 men have two 4-0 teams in Florida and Middle States, with NorCal and Eastern filling out the semis at 3-1 beating out three other teams with Eastern having to get it on fewer sets lost being tied with PNW at 13-7 on courts.  I'd said a team that was 1-1 after day one would make the semis even though there were six 2-0 teams, that team was Eastern and they came through.

The simulation picked Florida, NorCal, and Eastern as favorites and Middle States as a contender, so another basically perfect prediction as they were the top-4 teams most likely to make the semis.

Congratulations to the teams, and good luck on Sunday!

2026 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Day 1 Update

Week 2 of the 2026 USTA League Nationals is underway, and day 1 is complete.

In Orlando, they started a bit early due to anticipated thunderstorms, and they got play in with 40 & Over 4.5 men's favorite Florida not dropping a court (but against weaker opponents) and 5 other teams joining them at 2-0.  Look for a 1-1 team to potentially still make the semis though.

The women in Orlando have just three 2-0 teams and favorite Florida already lost a match, but with at least one 3-1 team going to make the semis, they are still in it and still one of the favorites, but perhaps not the overall favorite to win it any more with Intermountain inching ahead as slightly more likely to do so.

In Arizona, the 40 & Over 4.0 men has five 2-0 teams with favorite Southern 1-1, with just one with a most likely record of 4-0.  And the 4.0 women have six 2-0 teams.