2026 USTA League Nationals Week 3 Recap - Two undefeated teams don't make the semis

Week three of 2026 USTA Nationals is complete, here is the recap.

The big news was there being SIX 4-0 teams in the 40 & Over 3.5 men's event meaning two teams that went undefeated in round-robin didn't make the semis and were sent home.  I've written more thoughts on the subject in the past, and will write more on it soon, but on to the recap.

The 4-0 teams advancing were Southern (19-1 on courts), Florida (18-2), SoCal (17-3), and Middle States (16-4), with Caribbean (15-5) and Hawaii (14-6) left out.  At least the court records broke the tie and not the broken tie-breakers.  The simulation had SoCal, Middle States, and Florida in the top-4, and Southern was the 7th pick.  In the semis, Southern beat Middle States 4-1, and SoCal beat Florida 3-2 (Florida won 3D in a super tie-break, so close), and then Southern won the final 4-1.  FWIW, a Caribbean player left a comment on an earlier post.

The 40 & Over 3.5 women had three 4-0 teams in Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Eastern, and then NorCal and Florida were at 3-1 / 14-6 with NorCal having lost two fewer sets (and had a better sets won percentage).  The simulation had NorCal and Southern in the top-3 picks, but the others were 7th and 8th so a bit of a surprise.  In the semis, NorCal won 3-2, one match in a super tie-break, and Eastern won 4-1, with Eastern won the final 3-2.

Also in Mobile was the 40 & Over 3.0 events.  The women's saw a nice and tidy four 4-0 teams in NorCal, Southern, Eastern, and Mid-Atlantic.  The simulation had predicted the four semi-finalists all in the top-5 most likely to advance, so a near perfect prediction.  In the semis, NorCal and Eastern both won 4-1, and then Eastern won the final 3-2.

The men had Mid-Atlantic apparently not show, so with just 14 teams playing round-robin play found three 4-0 teams in Florida, Middle States, and Southern, then SoCal had the best court record of the 3-1 teams to take the last spot.  The simulation had the semi-finalists predicated in the 1, 5, 6, and 10th spot, SoCal being the surprise.  In the semis, Florida and Southern won, and Southern won the final 3-2, one match in a super tie-break.  And yes, the simulation picked Southern to win.

Last, the 18 & Over 4.0 event was held in Surprise and for the women there was just one 4-0 team, SoCal, so a very competitive event with Midwest, Texas, and Southern all making it as 3-1 teams, Southern beating out PNW on fewer sets lost.  The simulation had SoCal and Southern as favorites, and Midwest and Texas as the most likely contenders to advance, so nailed it!  In the semis, SoCal beat Southern 3-2 with one of the wins in a super tie-break and Texas beat Midwest 3-2 leaving SoCal to win the final 3-2 one of the wins in a super tie-break.  Note the simulation picked SoCal to win it all as well, so really nailed it.

The 4.0 men had three 4-0 teams in Florida, SoCal, and Southern, and Texas made it as the 3-1 team with the best court record.  The simulation had SoCal and Southern as favorites with Florida and Texas as the 4th and 5th contenders, so very nearly nailed it.  The semis had Florida win 4-1 and Southern advance 3-2, one of the wins in a super tie-break, and then Florida won it all 3-2.  Southern was the simulation's pick to win it all and they nearly did.

Congratulations to the new National Champs!  And condolences to Caribbean and Hawaii 3.5 men's teams.

It happened! Two 4-0 teams won't make the semis at USTA League Nationals 40 & Over 3.5 Men

I wrote a bit ago that there was a good chance there would be six 4-0 teams at 40 & Over 3.5 men's Nationals.

Well, it happened.

Remarkably, the standings show each team with one less court win and that was the decider.  Caribbean and Hawaii go 4-0 and 15-5 / 14-6, and that isn't enough when it almost always has been.

Will the USTA do something about it?  I don't know.  Having five 4-0 teams has happened before (and I said it would at some point) so I have to think they've thought about it and how to handle it, but to my knowledge nothing has been put in place, such as an adhoc quarter final or play-in match, so two 4-0 teams will likely be sent home.

A few years ago there were five 4-0 teams at 40 & Over 3.0 men's Nationals, and it had happened at 55 & Over Mixed 7.0 too.

I can't imagine this is going over well for Caribbean and Hawaii.  These are both "little sections" trying to punch above their weight class.  Hawaii had an easier schedule, but they still took advantage of it but likely aren't one of the best teams there.  But Caribbean had one of the tougher schedules which perhaps contributed to "only" winning 15 courts.

Tough one to swallow.  Should the USTA come up with a solution for this?  Or is this known before and teams just need to win more courts?

ALERT! An undefeated team (or two) may be sent home from USTA League Nationals

I was just checking in on the 40 & Over 3.5 men's event being played in Mobile this weekend, and noticed these standings.

• Southern - 4-0 / 19-1
• Florida - 4-0 / 18-2
• Caribbean - 4-0 / 15-5
• SoCal - 3-0 / 13-2
• Middle States - 3-0 / 12-3
• Hawaii - 3-0 / 11-4

Yes, that is six undefeated teams with three having just one match left.

Middle States plays Mid-Atlantic (0-3), Hawaii plays Eastern (0-3), and SoCal plays NorCal (1-2) in the final matches.

Can you say six 4-0 teams?!

We'll see if it happens.

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Women

It is that time of year!  We are into week 3 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I've done the 18 & Over 4.0 Men, now the 4.0 Women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 14%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.2%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: 0%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.97 / 3.79
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.89 / 3.83
Favorites: SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Florida, Midwest, New England, Texas

Have a chance: Caribbean, Hawaii, Intermountain, MOValley

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 1

There are two favorites, but four each of contenders and those that have a chance.  The last semi-spot is expected to be 3-1 / 12-8 again, but the 6th most likely to make the semis is 2-2 and six more joining them at that record.  This appears to be a competitive event, backed up by the schedule strengths having a small range of 3.83 to 3.89.

Just one team separates themselves in the chance of winning it all and they could be the only team at 4-0.  Only the other favorite is even over an 18% chance of winning it all and all the others are single digits.  So a bunch of teams may compete for the semis, but just the top-2 seem to have a good chance at the title.

Who is expected to be the champ?  SoCal.

What do you think?  Will SoCal win it?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

It is that time of year!  We are into week 3 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

To start this week, here is the 18 & Over 4.0 Men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 23%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 5%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.06 / 3.84
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.99 / 3.91
Favorites: SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Florida, Midwest, NorCal, Texas

Have a chance: Middle States, Eastern

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 4

There are two favorites, but a handful contending for the last two spots, and two others lurking with a chance if things fall their way.

There are four teams with a better than 22% chance of going 4-0 so that record will probably happen, but three more with a better than 16% chance, so this should be competitive.  And the most likely records have the last spot being a 4-way tie at 3-1 / 12-8.

Just two teams have a better than 15% chance of winning it all, and interestingly one of the projected semi-finalists is only 7th most likely to win it all.  That is what happens when a team has an easier schedule, so they are likely to make the semis, but on paper isn't as strong as the other teams, so not as likely to win it all despite making the semis in more of the iterations than some other teams.  The favorite to win it all?  Southern, just barely.

What do you think?  Will Southern win it?

2026 USTA League Nationals week 4 schedules are out

The schedules for the fourth week of USTA League Nationals, to be played October 30-November 1 are now out.

As a reminder, the events that weekend are the 55 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 in Orlando, 18 & Over Mixed 7.0 and 9.0 in Mobile, and 40 & Over Mixed 6.0 and 8.0 in Surprise.

The schedules can be found here.

Weather check for week three of 2026 USTA League Nationals

Week three of USTA League Nationals is this weekend with play in Mobile and Surprise.  After the postponement of the week 1 events in Mobile, and some minor to moderate delays from showers and rain wreaking havoc in Surprise last week, thankfully the weather report looks near perfect.

Mobile looks to be high 70s and sun, and Surprise will be low 80s and sun, but both locations having just light breezes forecast.  Sounds near perfect!