Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.0 Men

It is that time of year!  The first USTA League Nationals for 2026 begins this weekend, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

This weekend was supposed to have five events, but with the possible hurricane hitting the Gulf coast causing a postponement of all the events scheduled for Mobile this weekend, we have just the 18 & Over 3.0 in Orlando and 18 & Over 3.5 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I've done the 18 & Over 3.5 men and women, and 3.0 women, now the 3.0 men that had a late change with Intermountain no longer on the schedule.

Teams: 15

Chance of 3 undefeated: 19%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 2.7%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 73% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.23 / 2.99
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.16 / 3.04
Favorites: Caribbean, Midwest, NorCal, Texas
Contenders: Southwest

Have a chance: SoCal

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Two teams are far and away favorites, with two more joining them to meet the criteria.  Just one contender and barely another that has a chance.  This looks pretty top-heavy.

There should be two 4-0 teams with a good chance of three, but perhaps not four.

What do you think?

And there are just 15 teams at 2026 USTA League Nationals 18 & Over 3.0 Men

When the schedules for week 1 of the 2026 USTA League Nationals came out, the 18 & Over 3.0 men had 16 teams attending.  It appears with a late change, there are now 15 teams attending.

Match Tennis now shows 15 teams with Intermountain no longer listed, and the schedule on TennisLink no longer includes Intermountain, but the standings on TennisLink still list Intermountain.  All indications are Intermountain isn't going to be there and I'm sure the standings will get updated.  This does mean some schedules will have changed.

I hope all is ok with the Intermountain team.

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.0 Women

It is that time of year!  The first USTA League Nationals for 2026 begins this weekend, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

This weekend was supposed to have five events, but with the possible hurricane hitting the Gulf coast causing a postponement of all the events scheduled for Mobile this weekend, we have just the 18 & Over 3.0 in Orlando and 18 & Over 3.5 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I've done the 18 & Over 3.5 men and women, now the 3.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 32%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 9.9%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.19 / 2.91
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.12 / 2.98
Favorites: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, NorCal
Contenders: Florida, MoValley

Have a chance: Midwest, Southern, Texas

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Three teams are fairly clear favorites, but just two have a most likely record of 4-0.  A semi spot will go to a contender but the have a chance teams have just that, a decent chance to sneak in.  There are likely five 3-1 teams vying for two spots.

Given how competitive it may be, there is still a decent chance of four 4-0 teams, but there are still scenarios where there could be five or six, but pretty slim chance

What do you think?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Women

It is that time of year!  The first USTA League Nationals for 2026 begins this weekend, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

This weekend was supposed to have five events, but with the possible hurricane hitting the Gulf coast causing a postponement of all the events scheduled for Mobile this weekend, we have just the 18 & Over 3.0 in Orlando and 18 & Over 3.5 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I already looked at the 18 & Over 3.5 men, here is the 18 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 34%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 11%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1.1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 86% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.66 / 3.29
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.50 / 3.39
Favorites: Midwest, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Eastern, Florida, Hawaii

Have a chance: PNW, Middle States

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

There are three pretty clear favorites, then three teams really close contending for the last spot.  This results in a pretty good chance of undefeated teams with 11% chance of four of them, and 1.1% chance of five.  The contenders for the last semi spot are so close it could come down to tie-breakers, so lets hope the broken standings tie-breakers don't come into play.

What do you think?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Men

It is that time of year!  The first USTA League Nationals for 2026 begins this weekend, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

This weekend was supposed to have five events, but with the possible hurricane hitting the Gulf coast causing a postponement of all the events scheduled for Mobile this weekend, we have just the 18 & Over 3.0 in Orlando and 18 & Over 3.5 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 18 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 28%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 7.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.61 / 3.44
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.57 / 3.49
Favorites: Florida, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Texas
Contenders: NorCal, SoCal

Have a chance: Caribbean, Southwest

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 13-7

One team is a far and away favorite and expected to go 4-0.  The next three I'd consider favorites but are tightly grouped and not that far ahead of the contenders.  This means a 3-1 record is likely to make the semis with five teams projected to have a 3-1 record.  This could be very competitive.

Given how competitive it may be, there is a pretty small chance of four 4-0 teams, but there are still scenarios where there could be five or six.

What do you think?

The first week of 2026 USTA League Nationals will now be the last week

I just heard that the events scheduled for Mobile, AL this weekend (October 9-11) will now be played November 13-15, still in Mobile.  For those following along, this is due to the tropical storm and possible hurricane expected to hit the Gulf Coast this Friday.

This affects the 18 & Over 2.5 Women, 4.5 Men and Women, and 5.0 Men and Women.  The 18 & Over 3.0 event in Orlando and 3.5 event in Surprise are still on as scheduled as far as I know.  Orlando's forecast does call for some thunderstorms, but probably not much more than you'd expect for Florida in early October.

This is probably the best move, as having folks travel to a location that could be a disaster area with possible flooding and loss of power and utilities was probably not a good idea.  What is very nice is that it was not canceled, but just postponed and will still be held.  Being five weeks later may affect some being able to attend, but for those that can attend, they'll still get their Nationals experience.

What do you think?

2026 USTA League Nationals week 2 schedules are showing up

The schedules for the second weekend of USTA League Nationals are finally showing up.  Week 1 showed up nearly two weeks ago, but week 2, just 9 days away now, had been slow to come out.  That is probably at least partly due to having to figure out what to do with the events in Mobile where there is severe weather forecast for week 1.

As I write this, the 40 & Over 4.0 and 4.5 have shown up.  Those are the two events being played week 2.  I'm guessing the schedules for week 3 may not show up until next week.

The schedules can be found here.