2026 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Day 1 Update

Week 2 of the 2026 USTA League Nationals is underway, and day 1 is complete.

In Orlando, they started a bit early due to anticipated thunderstorms, and they got play in with 40 & Over 4.5 men's favorite Florida not dropping a court (but against weaker opponents) and 5 other teams joining them at 2-0.  Look for a 1-1 team to potentially still make the semis though.

The women in Orlando have just three 2-0 teams and favorite Florida already lost a match, but with at least one 3-1 team going to make the semis, they are still in it and still one of the favorites, but perhaps not the overall favorite to win it any more with Intermountain inching ahead as slightly more likely to do so.

In Arizona, the 40 & Over 4.0 men has five 2-0 teams with favorite Southern 1-1, with just one with a most likely record of 4-0.  And the 4.0 women have six 2-0 teams.

Weather Again? 40 & Over 4.5 in Orlando adjusts schedule

Another weekend of USTA League Nationals, another week of weather impacts.

Last week saw the events at Mobile postponed five weeks, and some delays from thunderstorms in Arizona, and this week there are likely some delays again.

My earlier preview noted a chance of a Friday afternoon thunderstorm in Orlando, and it appears the chance is high enough that the schedule for Friday has been adjusted to start early and use indoor courts and try to get matches in before the rain arrives.  I don't believe the format is being altered, so this seems like a nice proactive move to avoid having players playing late into the evening after the courts dry.

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Women

It is that time of year!  We are into week 2 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I already did the 40 & Over 4.0 Men, 4.0 Women, and 4.5 Men, now the 4.5 Women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 28%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 8.6%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1.0%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 87% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.38 / 4.12
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.34 / 4.24
Favorites: Florida, Intermountain, MOValley
Contenders: New England, Mid-Atlantic, Texas

Have a chance: NorCal, SoCal

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 13-7

Teams with >10% chance of winning it all: 3

There are three favorites to make the semis by a pretty good margin, but two are pretty close, and several others lurking.  A tie at 3-1 is likely.

Two teams are likely to go 4-0, and there is just a 1% chance of five 4-0 teams.

Three teams have a better than 10% chance of winning it all, but Florida stands ahead of the rest as the favorite for the championship.

What do you think?  Will Florida win it?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Men

It is that time of year!  We are into week 2 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I already did the 40 & Over 4.0 Men and 4.0 Women, now the 4.5 Men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 28%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 6.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 94% / 5

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.44 / 4.15
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.37 / 4.25
Favorites: Eastern, Florida, NorCal
Contenders: Midwest, Middle States, Texas

Have a chance: Caribbean, SoCal, Southern

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 13-7

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 2

There are three favorites to make the semis by a pretty good margin, but a pretty big group behind trying to get that 4th spot.  There is a good chance there could be five teams tied at 3-1.

No team has a best chance of going 4-0, but the favorites are all at about 40% or higher so it is likely at least one does it.

Just two teams have a better than 10% chance of winning it all, and both of those at about 30+%.  Interestingly neither of those has the best chance at making the semis, that team has the easiest schedule giving them that best chance, but they won't be favored over the other two in the semis or final.  The team with the best chance of winning?  Florida.

What do you think?  Will Florida win it?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Women

It is that time of year!  We are into week 2 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I already did the 40 & Over 4.0 Men, now the 4.0 Women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 25%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 7.2%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.92 / 3.77
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.88 / 3.78
Favorites: PNW, Southwest, Texas
Contenders: Florida, Middlestates, Midwest

Have a chance: Hawaii, NorCal, SoCal, Southern

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 5

There are three favorites, but the two of the three contenders are very close behind, and a fair number have a chance.  A full 10 teams have a better than 18% chance of making the semis.

There are four teams with a better than 21% chance of going 4-0 so that record will probably happen, but four more with a better than 12% chance, so this should be competitive.

Just two teams have a better than 15% chance of winning it all, and interestingly one of the projected semi-finalists is only 7th most likely to win it all.  That is what happens when a team has an easier schedule, so they are likely to make the semis, but on paper isn't as strong as the other teams, so not as likely to win it all despite making the semis in more of the iterations than some other teams.  The favorite to win it all?  Texas.

What do you think?  Will Texas win it?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

It is that time of year!  We are into week 2 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

First up this week, the 40 & Over 4.0 Men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 28%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 7.7%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 91% / 5

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.96 / 3.83
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.95 / 3.88
Favorites: New England, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Midwest, NorCal, 

Have a chance: Northern, Southwest, PNW, Texas

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 13-7

Teams with >10% of winning it all: 4

There are three favorites, but the three contenders are close behind, and a fair number have a chance.  A full 10 teams have a better than 15% chance of making the semis.

There are five teams with a better than 24% chance of going 4-0 so that record will probably happen, but there could be a big tie at 3-1 for the last spot.

The four most likely semi-finalists all have a 10+% chance of winning it all, but just two of those are better than 20% with Southern the most likely.

What do you think?  Will Southern win it?

What's on tap for week 2 of 2026 USTA League Nationals?

Week 1 of 2026 USTA League Nationals is in the books, and week 2 is nearly upon us.  Who will be playing this weekend?

The 40 & Over division highlights the weekend with the 4.0 and 4.5 levels playing, the former is Surprise, and the latter in Orlando.

Doing the requisite weather check after the postponement and delays from last weekend, the weather in Surprise looks like it will be in the 80s with a breezy Friday, a chance of a shower Saturday, and a beautiful Sunday.  In Orlando, it will start out hot and humid with a chance of a thunderstorm Friday, then be in the low-80s with some breeze.  Hopefully all play with get in without any drama.

I will be doing previews/simulations for the events shortly, and I've enhanced the simulation to include the chances of each team winning it all, so look for some forecasting of that.