2026 USTA League Nationals Week 4 Day 2 Update - We have (co) champions!

As day two of 2026 USTA League Nationals wraps up, we have National Champions!

What you say?  Isn't Nationals a 3-day event with semis and the final on Sunday?  Well, normally yes, but this weekend due to weather wreaking havoc with schedules, two of the locations decided to determine their champions on Saturday.

In Mobile, they accelerated the schedule Friday to get three matches in for most teams, leaving just the fourth match of round-robin for Saturday leaving time to get the semis and final in.

And they pulled it off with the 18 & Over 9.0 Mixed having Southern go 4-0, then MOValley, Mid-Atlantic, and Intermountain went 3-1 to make the semis beating out NorCal also 3-1 but 2 courts behiind on court record.  Southern and Mid-Atlantic faced off in the final, a rematch of a round-robin match Southern won 2-1, but Mid-Atlantic won the final 2-1 to take the championship.  Remember this scenario ...

The 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed also got everything in with Southern, NorCal, and Texas all going 4-0 with SoCal joining them at 3-1 beating out Hawaii on the games lost tie-breaker by two games.  The final found SoCal and Texas face off with Texas winning 3-0.

In Surprise, the 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed was played, and Friday was nearly a complete rain-out, the 6.0 level only getting a few matches completed and 8.0 got none in.  With the forecast for Sunday not looking good, the decision was made to try to fit all of the matches in on Saturday.

For the 6.0, NorCal went 4-0, and was joined in the semis by 3-1 Eastern, Midwest, and Florida.  There were three other 3-1 teams (6 total) but they lost the tie-breaker on court record.  In the semis ...  There apparently were no semis as it started to rain, and there will be no semis apparently.  I believe, but have not confirmed, NorCal will be declared the champion being the only 4-0 team.  I say this because ...

For the 8.0, Southwest, Texas, and SoCal all went 4-0, and PNW joined them in the "semis" at 3-1 beating out 3-1 Southern, who PNW had lost to, on court record.  Yes, court record is used before head-to-head in the standings tie-breakers.  Here, I was told it was announced there would be three co-champs, the three undefeated teams, leaving PNW out.

I have a few observations.

First, I understand the forecast for tomorrow is for rain, but when I checked a few minutes ago, there was actually a couple hour window where it might not rain.  Yes, it very well may rain or not dry enough, but why not try?  All the players went there believing the semis and final would be played on Sunday, so they were planning to be there.

Second, on the surface I get why you'd declare the undefeated team(s) the champion(s), but we just saw (above) how a team that went 3-1 in round-robin avenged their loss to beat that team in the final.  How can you assume the undefeated teams are the only ones worthy of being declared co-champs?  That is tough for 6.0 Eastern, Midwest, and Florida, and 8.0 PNW.

In other news, it appears the 55 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 will get their play finished on Sunday.  There were thunderstorms forecast all weekend there too, but an accelerated schedule to get matches in and the option of indoor courts gives them some flexibility.

For the 7.0 women, NorCal and Texas finished 4-0 and were joined by 3-1 PNW and Midwest the latter beating out Hawaii on head-to-head.  Midwest and Texas won the semis and I expect the final will be played tomorrow.

The 7.0 men had 4-0 Middlestates and Mid-Atlantic joined by 3-1 SoCal and Florida, Eastern also 3-1 but behind on court record.  Florida and SoCal won the semis (see, 3-1 teams can beat 4-0 teams!) and will play the final tomorrow.

The 9.0 women had a single 4-0 team, Mid-Atlantic, along with 3-1 Southern, PNW, and MOValley with three other 3-1 teams as well, but the closest, NorCal, had more sets lost than MOValley.  MOValley and Southern won the semis and should play tomorrow.

The 9.0 men had three 4-0 teams, Midwest, New England, and SoCal, and two 3-1 teams with NorCal advancing on fewer sets lost.  Midwest and SoCal won their semis and should play tomorrow.

So there you have it, your recap on a weather affected week four of Nationals.  I think the USTA did well in accelerating schedules and shortening the format to get matches in, but I would have tried to get the semis/final in in Surprise.

What do you think of how it was all handled?  Should they have waited to see if they could play Sunday in Surprise?  Or if the forecast looks unlikely to be favorable, might as well call it so players can leave?  And should the co-champs only include undefeated teams?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 9.0 Women

It is that time of year!  We are into week 4 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

Here is the 55 & Over 9.0 Women.

Teams: 14

Chance of 3 undefeated: 10%
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: 0%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 70% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.37 / 4.09
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.29 / 4.20
Favorites: Florida, PNW, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, MOValley, NorCal, Texas

Have a chance: Intermountain

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 7-5

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 2

Smaller flight with just 14, so smaller chances of a lot of undefeated teams, and perhaps a chance (7%) of a 2-2 team making the semis.

Of the three favorites, two have a good chance of taking it all, and of those, Southern is the favorite.

What do you think?  Will Southern win it?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed

It is that time of year!  We are into week 4 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

Here is the 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed.

Teams: 16

Chance of 3 undefeated: 6.4%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 0.5%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 78% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.06 / 3.89
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.01 / 3.92
Favorites: NorCal, Texas
Contenders: SoCal, Southwest, Hawaii, Midwest

Have a chance: Eastern, Florida, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, MOValley, New England, PNW

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 7-5

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 0

This appears to be an incredibly balanced and even event.  Never before do I recall there being eight teams that have a chance, and only two teams are not given a chance.  While the most common top-4 records are all 3-1, there are a whopping 10 teams with most likely records of 2-2.

As a result, there is very little chance of another disaster with undefeated teams being sent home with only a 6.4% chance of even three 4-0 teams.

Also, there is no teams that stands out as a big favorite, but instead five teams have 11.6% to 19.1% chance of winning it all, that group led by Texas.

But this is so close, anything could happen, especially with rain forecast and short sets being played.

What do you think?  Will Texas win it?

Weather is affecting week four of 2026 USTA League Nationals - Short sets, altered schedule

I wrote earlier today that there was likely to be thunderstorms and delays at each of the locations hosting Nationals this weekend.  Well, it appears the USTA is proactively adjust schedules and playing format to try to ensure the events can be completed.

In Mobile, the 18 & Over Mixed 7.0 and 9.0 will have the schedule adjusted to try to play the entire event in two days with three rounds of matches on Friday and then finish round-robin Saturday morning with the semis and final Saturday afternoon/evening weather allowing.  For now, they are trying to avoid going to short sets.

I Surprise, the 40 & Over Mixed 6.0 and 8.0 are moving to short sets (first to 4 rather than 6) and no-ad to try and get matches in given expected delays.  If weather improves, they may go back to normal format.

Good luck everyone!

Weather check for week four of 2026 USTA League Nationals - more rain

Week four of USTA League Nationals is this weekend with play in Orlando, Mobile, and Surprise.  After the postponement of the week 1 events in Mobile, and some minor to moderate delays from showers and rain wreaking havoc in Surprise the second week, weather was largely a non-event week three except for perhaps some very short delays in Surprise.

This week, Orlando's forecast is mid-80s, but each day there seems to be a chance of a shower or thunderstorm, with an 80%, 55%, and 98% chance of precipitation each day.

In Mobile, Friday should be 80 and dry, but then an 88% chance of precipitation Saturday and Sunday with showers and thunderstorms.

Then in Surprise, yes, just to be consistent, there is a good chance of thunderstorms Friday and Sunday, 98% each day, with a smaller chance on Saturday.

It may not rain a lot at or constantly at any of the locations, but there very well may be delays.  Let's hope it doesn't alter the format.

Is this year's Nationals cursed when it comes to weather?

2026 USTA League Nationals Week 3 Recap - Two undefeated teams don't make the semis

Week three of 2026 USTA Nationals is complete, here is the recap.

The big news was there being SIX 4-0 teams in the 40 & Over 3.5 men's event meaning two teams that went undefeated in round-robin didn't make the semis and were sent home.  I've written more thoughts on the subject in the past, and will write more on it soon, but on to the recap.

The 4-0 teams advancing were Southern (19-1 on courts), Florida (18-2), SoCal (17-3), and Middle States (16-4), with Caribbean (15-5) and Hawaii (14-6) left out.  At least the court records broke the tie and not the broken tie-breakers.  The simulation had SoCal, Middle States, and Florida in the top-4, and Southern was the 7th pick.  In the semis, Southern beat Middle States 4-1, and SoCal beat Florida 3-2 (Florida won 3D in a super tie-break, so close), and then Southern won the final 4-1.  FWIW, a Caribbean player left a comment on an earlier post.

The 40 & Over 3.5 women had three 4-0 teams in Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Eastern, and then NorCal and Florida were at 3-1 / 14-6 with NorCal having lost two fewer sets (and had a better sets won percentage).  The simulation had NorCal and Southern in the top-3 picks, but the others were 7th and 8th so a bit of a surprise.  In the semis, NorCal won 3-2, one match in a super tie-break, and Eastern won 4-1, with Eastern won the final 3-2.

Also in Mobile was the 40 & Over 3.0 events.  The women's saw a nice and tidy four 4-0 teams in NorCal, Southern, Eastern, and Mid-Atlantic.  The simulation had predicted the four semi-finalists all in the top-5 most likely to advance, so a near perfect prediction.  In the semis, NorCal and Eastern both won 4-1, and then Eastern won the final 3-2.

The men had Mid-Atlantic apparently not show, so with just 14 teams playing round-robin play found three 4-0 teams in Florida, Middle States, and Southern, then SoCal had the best court record of the 3-1 teams to take the last spot.  The simulation had the semi-finalists predicated in the 1, 5, 6, and 10th spot, SoCal being the surprise.  In the semis, Florida and Southern won, and Southern won the final 3-2, one match in a super tie-break.  And yes, the simulation picked Southern to win.

Last, the 18 & Over 4.0 event was held in Surprise and for the women there was just one 4-0 team, SoCal, so a very competitive event with Midwest, Texas, and Southern all making it as 3-1 teams, Southern beating out PNW on fewer sets lost.  The simulation had SoCal and Southern as favorites, and Midwest and Texas as the most likely contenders to advance, so nailed it!  In the semis, SoCal beat Southern 3-2 with one of the wins in a super tie-break and Texas beat Midwest 3-2 leaving SoCal to win the final 3-2 one of the wins in a super tie-break.  Note the simulation picked SoCal to win it all as well, so really nailed it.

The 4.0 men had three 4-0 teams in Florida, SoCal, and Southern, and Texas made it as the 3-1 team with the best court record.  The simulation had SoCal and Southern as favorites with Florida and Texas as the 4th and 5th contenders, so very nearly nailed it.  The semis had Florida win 4-1 and Southern advance 3-2, one of the wins in a super tie-break, and then Florida won it all 3-2.  Southern was the simulation's pick to win it all and they nearly did.

Congratulations to the new National Champs!  And condolences to Caribbean and Hawaii 3.5 men's teams.

It happened! Two 4-0 teams won't make the semis at USTA League Nationals 40 & Over 3.5 Men

I wrote a bit ago that there was a good chance there would be six 4-0 teams at 40 & Over 3.5 men's Nationals.

Well, it happened.

Remarkably, the standings show each team with one less court win and that was the decider.  Caribbean and Hawaii go 4-0 and 15-5 / 14-6, and that isn't enough when it almost always has been.

Will the USTA do something about it?  I don't know.  Having five 4-0 teams has happened before (and I said it would at some point) so I have to think they've thought about it and how to handle it, but to my knowledge nothing has been put in place, such as an adhoc quarter final or play-in match, so two 4-0 teams will likely be sent home.

A few years ago there were five 4-0 teams at 40 & Over 3.0 men's Nationals, and it had happened at 55 & Over Mixed 7.0 too.

I can't imagine this is going over well for Caribbean and Hawaii.  These are both "little sections" trying to punch above their weight class.  Hawaii had an easier schedule, but they still took advantage of it but likely aren't one of the best teams there.  But Caribbean had one of the tougher schedules which perhaps contributed to "only" winning 15 courts.

Tough one to swallow.  Should the USTA come up with a solution for this?  Or is this known before and teams just need to win more courts?