Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

It is that time of year!  We are into week 2 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

First up this week, the 40 & Over 4.0 Men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 28%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 7.7%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 91% / 5

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.96 / 3.83
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.95 / 3.88
Favorites: New England, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Midwest, NorCal, 

Have a chance: Northern, Southwest, PNW, Texas

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 13-7

Teams with >10% of winning it all: 4

There are three favorites, but the three contenders are close behind, and a fair number have a chance.  A full 10 teams have a better than 15% chance of making the semis.

There are five teams with a better than 24% chance of going 4-0 so that record will probably happen, but there could be a big tie at 3-1 for the last spot.

The four most likely semi-finalists all have a 10+% chance of winning it all, but just two of those are better than 20% with Southern the most likely.

What do you think?  Will Southern win it?

What's on tap for week 2 of 2026 USTA League Nationals?

Week 1 of 2026 USTA League Nationals is in the books, and week 2 is nearly upon us.  Who will be playing this weekend?

The 40 & Over division highlights the weekend with the 4.0 and 4.5 levels playing, the former is Surprise, and the latter in Orlando.

Doing the requisite weather check after the postponement and delays from last weekend, the weather in Surprise looks like it will be in the 80s with a breezy Friday, a chance of a shower Saturday, and a beautiful Sunday.  In Orlando, it will start out hot and humid with a chance of a thunderstorm Friday, then be in the low-80s with some breeze.  Hopefully all play with get in without any drama.

I will be doing previews/simulations for the events shortly, and I've enhanced the simulation to include the chances of each team winning it all, so look for some forecasting of that.

2026 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Recap

Week 1 of the 2026 USTA League Nationals is in the books, so it is time for a recap.

To start, after some delays in Surprise, round-robin play was completed and we had our semi-finalists.

The 3.5 women had four 4-0 teams with NorCal, Southern, Eastern, and Caribbean, two of those were favorites or contenders, and then NorCal and Southern won to advance to the final where NorCal won it all.

The 3.5 men wrapped up with three 4-0 teams in Texas, Southwest, and Caribbean, and then Eastern edged out NorCal at 3-1 to make the semis.  Three of those were favorites or had a chance, and then Texas and Caribbean advanced to the final with Caribbean winning the title.

The 3.0 women were in Orlando where NorCal beat PNW and Caribbean beat Florida, and then NorCal won the title.

The 3.0 men had Caribbean beat Midwest and NorCal beat Texas, and then Caribbean won the title.

Congratulations to all the teams and new champions!

2026 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Day 2 Update

This was the first weekend of 2026 USTA League Nationals, and there was drama before play even started with the events in Mobile being postponed until the second weekend of November (13th thru 15th) due to the hurricane passing through.  It continued with a late drop out of a team in the 18 & Over 3.0 Men's event.

But play did commence on time in Orlando for the 18 & Over 3.0 men and women, and in Surprise for the 18 & Over 3.5 men and women.  Unfortunately, it appears thunderstorms or remnants of a tropical storm coming up from Mexico has caused delays in Surprise and round-robin play may not finish tonight and they'll have to squeeze it in Sunday morning before the semis.

In Orlando where round-robin play did finish, the 3.0 women ended up with two 4-0 teams in NorCal and Florida, then five 3-1 teams with Caribbean and PNW having better individual court records to advance over SoCal, Texas, and Eastern.  While the broken tie-breakers didn't come into play here, it is interesting that PNW's loss was to Eastern, but PNW was two courts better on individual courts having won their three matches more convincingly than Eastern.

How did the 3.0 women simulation do?  It picked two of the semi-finalists in NorCal and Florida, but Caribbean and PNW surprised with PNW upsetting Eastern on one court, otherwise favorite Eastern would have made it.

Then 3.0 men and a nice clean four 4-0 teams in Caribbean, Texas, NorCal, and Midwest, although interestingly, 3-1 Eastern had a better individual court record (14-6) than Midwest (13-7), but Midwest beat them head to head 3-2, one of the court wins being a match tie-break, so really close on Eastern making it.

How did the 3.0 men simulation do?  It was perfect with the four favorites all advancing.

We will see how the events in Surprise finish up tomorrow.

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.0 Men

It is that time of year!  The first USTA League Nationals for 2026 begins this weekend, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

This weekend was supposed to have five events, but with the possible hurricane hitting the Gulf coast causing a postponement of all the events scheduled for Mobile this weekend, we have just the 18 & Over 3.0 in Orlando and 18 & Over 3.5 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I've done the 18 & Over 3.5 men and women, and 3.0 women, now the 3.0 men that had a late change with Intermountain no longer on the schedule.

Teams: 15

Chance of 3 undefeated: 19%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 2.7%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 73% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.23 / 2.99
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.16 / 3.04
Favorites: Caribbean, Midwest, NorCal, Texas
Contenders: Southwest

Have a chance: SoCal

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Two teams are far and away favorites, with two more joining them to meet the criteria.  Just one contender and barely another that has a chance.  This looks pretty top-heavy.

There should be two 4-0 teams with a good chance of three, but perhaps not four.

What do you think?

And there are just 15 teams at 2026 USTA League Nationals 18 & Over 3.0 Men

When the schedules for week 1 of the 2026 USTA League Nationals came out, the 18 & Over 3.0 men had 16 teams attending.  It appears with a late change, there are now 15 teams attending.

Match Tennis now shows 15 teams with Intermountain no longer listed, and the schedule on TennisLink no longer includes Intermountain, but the standings on TennisLink still list Intermountain.  All indications are Intermountain isn't going to be there and I'm sure the standings will get updated.  This does mean some schedules will have changed.

I hope all is ok with the Intermountain team.

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.0 Women

It is that time of year!  The first USTA League Nationals for 2026 begins this weekend, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

This weekend was supposed to have five events, but with the possible hurricane hitting the Gulf coast causing a postponement of all the events scheduled for Mobile this weekend, we have just the 18 & Over 3.0 in Orlando and 18 & Over 3.5 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I've done the 18 & Over 3.5 men and women, now the 3.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 32%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 9.9%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.19 / 2.91
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.12 / 2.98
Favorites: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, NorCal
Contenders: Florida, MoValley

Have a chance: Midwest, Southern, Texas

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Three teams are fairly clear favorites, but just two have a most likely record of 4-0.  A semi spot will go to a contender but the have a chance teams have just that, a decent chance to sneak in.  There are likely five 3-1 teams vying for two spots.

Given how competitive it may be, there is still a decent chance of four 4-0 teams, but there are still scenarios where there could be five or six, but pretty slim chance

What do you think?