First, it is important to note that despite some rain on Friday, all the matches were played in their full format as the USTA did have a plan to get enough matches played indoors on Friday. Good move and I think the players appreciated it even if they had to play late Saturday night.
Despite my simulation indicating there was a good chance of multiple undefeated teams, we ended up with just one, Intermountain, which meant we were going to have a big tie at 3-1.
Eastern was 3-0 going into their last match but sort of had a spot in the semis wrapped up and lost their last one 3-2 to finish 3-1 and 15-5 on courts and get the #2 spot.
Mid-Atlantic lost their first match, and then not only won three straight to get to 3-1, but won their last one 5-0 to move into the #3 spot by themselves at 13-7 on courts.
Then, we had four teams vying for the last spot. Pacific NW and Southern were 3-1 but just 11-9 on courts which didn't keep them in the running.
Middle States and Texas were both 3-1 and 12-8 on courts so it went to extended tie-breakers. They didn't play head to head to it went to sets lost where they both lost 16. Per the rules in play, it then goes to games lost where Middle States lost 8 fewer games so they get the #4 spot. Note that Texas did win two more sets than Middle States extending two matches to third sets that Middle States didn't, and they also won 19 more games than Middle States so had a larger games won/lost differential, but those aren't included in the current tie-breaker.
In this case, my prediction was spot on as it predicted the four semi-finalists and Texas to be the five teams most likely to make the semis!
Who is favored to win? Intermountain is the pick over Middle States while Mid-Atlantic is a narrow pick over Eastern. Intermountain would be the pick in the final.
Good luck teams!
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