Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over Mixed 6.0

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is continuing my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-16 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 18 & Over Mixed 6.0 that is being played this weekend in Mobile, AL.  I am posting this late, but it is using information prior to competition starting.

Remarkably, there is a chance of six undefeated, although it only occurred once in the million simulations.  Even with that, there is just a 0.01% chance of five and 0.4% chance of four undefeated.  That means there is a good chance of a tie for fourth and it would likely have 4 of 5 teams in it.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Mid-Atlantic - 85%
• Southern Cal - 67%
• New England - 66%
• Midwest - 56%

Those four teams separate themselves a bit, but just the top team has a most likely record of 4-0.  A whopping eight teams have most likely records of 2-2 led by NorCal and Southwest the most likely to make the semis.

If the four teams predicted make the semis, Mid-Atlantic would be favored over Midwest and SoCal over New England, with Mid-Atlantic the pick in the final.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.