Saturday, November 17, 2018

Tie-breakers galore at 40 & Over Mixed USTA League Nationals - A 7-way tie for 7.0!

Back when the new format for USTA League Nationals was announced, I wrote about the possibilities it presented and what might happen, a key point being that there could be large ties between teams to determine who would advance to the semi-finals, and the tie-breakers used would be very important.

We've had several scenarios where teams have advanced to the semis based on the currently used tie-breakers that wouldn't have had the tie-breakers been, in my opinion, more equitable, and this weekend for the 40 & Over Mixed we've had some similarly interesting and/or very large ties and a couple cases things could have been different with different rules.

Below, I'll show the standings for the semi-finalists and ties showing each team's win/loss record, their individual courts won/lost, their sets won/lost, and games won/lost.  This is similar to what TennisLink shows and uses for breaking ties, but I've added the sets won and games won stats.  The official tie-breaker doesn't include these but I'm including for discussion purposes.

First, the 7.0 level had what may be the largest tie ever broken in USTA history with 7 teams tied at 3-1 for 2nd thru 8th.  Hawaii was 4-0, and then Southern, Texas, and Caribbean got the other spots having lost fewer sets than Mid-Atlantic.

TeamWLIWILSWSLGWGL
Hawaii4010221613180
Southern319318713082
Texas319319713099
Caribbean3193198136103
Mid-Atlantic319321913391
Midwest318417812196
Pacific NW3184181012893
Middle States3175171211495

But if we take a look at set differential and it were used, the order would change.  Texas and Mid-Atlantic were +12 and would have taken the #2 and #3 spots, and then Southern and Caribbean would have been +11, and with Southern having fewer sets lost, they would have taken the #4 spot.  But the USTA regulations do not look at sets won or sets differential so Mid-Atlantic is out.

It is also interesting to see that of the 7 teams tied, Caribbean lost the most games so had it gotten to that tie-breaker, they would not have advanced.

Next, the 6.0 level had three 4-0 teams, and then a 3-way tie at 3-1 for one spot.  PNW got the spot on fewer games lost compared to Midwest since they had the same number of sets lost.

TeamWLIWILSWSLGWGL
Southern4011123414071
Caribbean4011123414075
Northern409319713577
Pacific NW319318812382
Midwest3193198130113
Hawaii318417813180

We see though that while PNW and Midwest tied on sets lost, Midwest actually won more sets, and if sets differential was used first, they would have advanced.  But the USTA regulations ignore sets won or sets differential and just go straight to games lost after sets lost so PNW gets the spot.

The 9.0 level had one 4-0 team and a 4-way tie for three spots.  The last semi-finalist spot came down to Southern and Eastern tied all the way to sets lost, and Southern got the spot on fewer games lost.

TeamWLIWILSWSLGWGL
Missouri Valley4010220713395
Southern Cal3110221513272
Northern Cal3193191011297
Southern3184191013386
Eastern31841610121109

Had sets differential been used, Southern would have still gotten the spot with a +9 vs +6 for Eastern.

As far as head-to-head, Eastern gave SoCal their loss, Southern gave NorCal their loss, MoValley gave Southern their loss, and Texas (2-2) gave Eastern their loss.  Head-to-head is used after individual court wins/losses so didn't have a role here.

The 8.0 level was boring, two 4-0 teams in Missouri Valley and Southern Cal, and two 3-1 teams, although Intermountain did get the #3 spot over Southern having lost fewer games since they were tied on sets lost, and sets won for that matter.

So there was some very close and competitive tennis played so far, and a few situations that highlight the importance of fair and equitable tie-breakers.  But regardless of how the ties were broken, good luck to the semi-finalists tomorrow!

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