Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over Mixed 8.0

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is continuing my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-16 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 18 & Over Mixed 8.0 that is coming up this weekend in Mobile, AL.

First, there is just a 0.02% chance of five teams finishing undefeated, so I don't think an undefeated team will be sent home.  There is a 1% chance of four 4-0 teams though.

This one should be more competitive than some of the other levels this weekend, there isn't two teams running away with it.  The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Mid-Atlantic - 80%
• Missouri Valley - 71%
• Middle States - 69%
• Pacific Northwest - 54%
• Northern Cal - 53%

These are all still over 50% so they are favorites, but the most likely record for each team is just 3-1, and there are 7 teams behind with a 2-2 record most likely that could certainly get to 3-1.  Midwest and Texas are most likely to 3-1, but Northern, New England, and Southern have decent chances too.

If the teams predicted make the semis, Mid-Atlantic would be favored over NorCal or PNW, and Middle States narrowly over MoValley, with Middle States the ever so narrow pick in the final.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.