Friday, November 9, 2018

18 & Over Mixed Nationals Day 1 Update

Day one of 18 & Over Mixed Nationals is complete, or nearly so, and the event is more or less still on track despite the rain that came late in the day.

The USTA made the right decision in my opinion to start the day using a modified Fast Four format in order to complete matches a little quicker, and it appears it worked.  As I write this, a few matches are still not recorded so may still being completed or just haven't been entered yet, but by and large, all the day one matches are complete meaning day two can proceed as planned.

While Fast Four is not ideal when everyone is planning on playing normal sets, I think it is better than the alternative of having a third of the matches still to play and the scheduling issues that would ensue.

And the competition is shaping up to be good.

The 6.0 level has a whopping seven teams still undefeated, and some of those play each other tomorrow so it can't stay that way, but it will be tight and could come down to tie-breakers to decide who advances.  There is just a 1.5% chance four finish undefeated, but a 6-way tie at 3-1 for 2nd thru 4th is likely.

The 7.0 level has five, perhaps six (one still to be recorded) undefeated so is similarly competitive.  But almost no chance of four undefeated, a 6-way tie at 3-1 for the 4 spots is likely.

The 8.0 level will have five undefeated and five at 1-1, so a lot of teams still in it.  But no chance of four finishing 4-0, a 4-way tie at 3-1 for three spots likely, but a 7-way tie at 2-2 behind means a bunch of teams could get to 3-1 and make it interesting.

The 9.0 level has six teams undefeated and just three at 1-1 and a 14% chance of finishing with four at 4-0.  There is a greater than 1% chance of five undefeated still.

The 10.0 level has just nine teams so just three undefeated meaning we are headed for some tie-breakers.  There is a very good chance a 2-2 team makes the semis.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow playing full scoring!


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