Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 40 & Over Mixed 8.0 (corrected)

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is the set of my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-12 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 40 & Over Mixed 8.0 that is coming up this weekend in Orlando, FL.

There is the full 17 teams and with that and the schedule the USTA came up with, there is actually a chance of six(!) teams being undefeated.  That shouldn't be the case, it is entirely possible to have a schedule where no more than five teams can be undefeated.  Now, the chances are exceedingly low of six 4-0 teams occurring, 0.001%, but it is possible, and five teams undefeated has a 4% chance.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Southern Cal - 89%
• Northern Cal - 81%
• Midwest - 80%
• Hawaii - 80%

Just the first above has a 4-0 record as most likely, and there is just four teams in a tie at 3-1 as the most likely record, Eastern being the other team.  Five teams are at 2-2 though and could get to 3-1.

If the teams predicted make the semis, Hawaii would be a narrow favorite over SoCal and NorCal over Midwest, with Hawaii the very narrow pick in the final.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-12 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Update: Made a correction due to marking a player ineligible which changed things a bit.