Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over Mixed 10.0

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is continuing my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-16 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 18 & Over Mixed 10.0 that is coming up this weekend in Mobile, AL.

What is unique about this level is that there are just 9 teams attending so this doesn't have the same dynamics the larger events do.  Each team will play half of the potential opponents rather than just a quarter.

Given there are fewer teams, there is no chance of four undefeated, let alone more than that.  There is also less chance of large ties, just a 27% chance of a tie for 4th, although when it happens it will be between three teams 61% of the time.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Texas - 99%
• Southern Cal - 99%
• Northern Cal - 97%
• Intermountain - 90%

Those four teams separate themselves by a clear margin, but just the top two teams have a most likely record of 4-0.  Just one team, Florida, has a most likely record of 2-2 behind these, but the simulation says New England has a similar chance at making the semis.

If the four teams predicted make the semis, Texas would be favored over Intermountain and SoCal over NorCal, with Texas the pick in the final.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.