Analyzing 2018 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Overall and by section bump rates - Caribbean gets rocked!

2018 year-end ratings are out for USTA League players, and they were on-time or even a few hours early based on what I'd predicted.  Thanks to the USTA for getting them out this week as I know in many areas teams are forming now and knowing where players are rated for 2019 is kind of a key ingredient to forming teams.

Now, on to the analysis!

Time allowing, I'll be slicing and dicing the data every which way, but to start we'll just look at some overall and by section bump up/down statistics.

For this analysis, I'm looking at players that had 2017 year-end ratings and got a new 2018 year-end rating.

First, the overall bump rates Nationals across all levels and sections are 9.1% bumped up and 4.7% bumped down.  These are pretty consistent with most years, so nothing out of the ordinary so far.

Next, looking at bump percentages by section, we get the following chart.

We see that Caribbean has hardly any bump downs and over 45% of players bumped up!  Caribbean routinely has a large number of bump ups, but not usually this high.  Perhaps their continued success at Nationals has reaped a larger adjustment this year.  Stay tuned for more detailed analysis, but it will be interesting to see how this affects Caribbean at Nationals next year.

Update: Since I removed Caribbean below, it is also worth noting that with that section removed, the National results were 8.8% bumped up and 4.8% bumped down.

Other than Caribbean, the other sections are all pretty consistent.  Removing Caribbean so we can see a bit more detail though.

We see no section reached a bump up percentage of 10%, Mid-Atlantic was the closest, and Hawaii had the highest bump down rate and one of the lowest bump up rates.

These are pretty consistent from section to section though, so no obvious big adjustments at least at a macro level.  As I dig into gender and level within a section, I expect we'll see more variation.