An undefeated team could be sent home at USTA League 18 & Over 3.5 Men's Nationals

After day one at 18 & Over 3.5 men's Nationals, five teams are undefeated, Texas, SoCal, Southern, Missouri Valley, and Caribbean.  With the remaining schedule, none of them play each other so it is entirely possible that they all finish 5-0, and then an undefeated team would miss out on the semis and be sent home!

This has always been possible with this format, but how likely is it to happen?  My simulation says not very, less than 1%, and in fact a single digit chance of four teams going undefeated.  However, Caribbean is almost always underrated coming in to Nationals so I'm sure the simulation is under-estimating what they can do.

Caribbean plays a good PNW team that is 1-1 first today, but if they get past that they have a weaker 0-2 Hawaii and 4-0 then perhaps becomes entirely possible.

Texas and SoCal are off the charts good by the numbers, neither has lost a court yet and only three sets lost apiece, so we'll assume they go 4-0, although Texas does have to beat two 1-1 teams, but SoCal gets two 0-2 teams.

That leaves Southern and MoValley.

Southern plays an 0-2 Northern, and then a good 1-1 Mid-Atlantic.  This second match will be key.

MoValley also plays Mid-Atlantic, and then a 1-1 but not as strong New England on short rest.

I think this all hinges on that first MoValley vs Mid-Atlantic match.  If MoValley can win it, they put a second loss on Mid-Atlantic and then they perhaps don't have as much motivation against Southern.  Then suddenly what appears unlikely becomes likely and there is a real chance of a 4-0 team not making the semis and being sent home.

So look for that MoValley vs Mid-Atlantic result (7:30 AM start) and Caribbean vs PNW (also 7:30 AM) as those will be big indicators of if we will have much anguish and consternation.

Stay tuned and/or look for those first results.