Part 2 of will an undefeated team be sent home from 2019 USTA League Nationals? 18 & Over 4.5 men are as likely as ever, but 4.0 won't happen this year

I wrote earlier that the 18 & Over 4.0 men had a decent chance of having five teams undefeated and one being sent home.  Well, Middle States went and lost their first match today 3-2 to New England, so that is out the door.

But, upon reviewing the 18 & Over 4.5 men, there is nearly as good a chance of it happening there, and this is even with some matches played from day 2 already.

Right now the simulation says an 11% chance, and it would happen with Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Intermountain, Middle States, and Southern.  Four of those teams are already 3-0, and Mid-Atlantic has two weaker opponents in Northern and Hawaii so they are likely to be 4-0.

What are the potential slip-ups?

• Midwest plays a good Missouri Valley team but should still win, especially if MoValley at 1-2 mails it in
• Intermountain plays a good Southwest team but should still win, especially if Southwest at 1-2 mails it in
• Middle States plays a very good (on paper) Florida team, but they are 0-3 and haven't played three of their top-11 players so are perhaps short staffed, Middle States could win this
• Southern plays Texas, a very good team that is 2-1 and just happened to have to play Midwest earlier.  Texas will still feel in it so this is perhaps the biggest risk.
• Mid-Atlantic should win both of theirs, Northern is the tougher match.

So look for the Middle States vs Florida, and Southern vs Texas matches.  That will likely determine if we get five undefeated.