9-way tie for first at 40 & Over 3.5 women USTA League Nationals!

When I do my simulations, I always include the chances of various sizes of the ties that may occur, and mention how large the tie theoretically could be.  Ties of 2-5 generally have high probabilities, 6 or more, even as many as 10 or 11, show up as possible but not likely.

Well, for the 40 & Over 3.5 women being played in Oklahoma City this weekend, one of those really large ties finally happened!  And it wasn't just for an advancing spot, but for first!

The standings show a whopping 9 teams tied at 3-1.  Here is how they all lined up:

• Southern - 15-5 on courts, 31-10 on sets, lost to Texas
• Mid-Atlantic - 15-5 on courts, 32-12 on sets, lost to Middle States
• Midwest - 13-7 on courts, 27-18 on sets, 191-169 on games, lost to Mid-Atlantic
• Florida - 13-7 on courts, 27-18 on sets, 192-174 on games, lost to Southern
• Texas - 12-8 on courts, 27-18 on sets, lost to Midwest
• MoValley - 12-8 on courts, 26-22 on sets, 184-175 on games, lost to Southwest
• Intermountain - 12-8 on courts, 25-22 on sets, 194-195 on games, lost to Texas
• Southwest - 10-10 on courts, 23-23 on sets, 180-189 on games, lost to Southern
• Eastern - 10-10 on courts, 25-25 on sets, 201-190 on games, lost to Intermountain

Whew, that is a lot of teams!

Luckily for the USTA, the top-4 were decided just looking at court records.   No controversy in who the top-4 are.  And the order after that is largely inconsequential, but there are a few things to comment on.

The top-2 were decided on Southern losing fewer sets, which can be problematic as it ignores sets won, but had my preferred set differential or percent of sets won been used, the order would have been the same.

Midwest and Florida were tied on courts and sets and it was decided on Midwest losing fewer games.  This too can be problematic but my preferred games differential or percent of games won would have been the same in this case.

Texas, MoValley, and Intermountain were tied on courts at 12-8 and Texas got the spot on fewest sets lost.  MoValley and Intermountain both lost 22 sets, and using my rules MoValley should have gotten the spot due to winning more sets, but the USTA doesn't do that and instead goes to games lost and MoValley still got it there.

Southwest and Eastern were both just 10-10, and Southwest gets the spot losing 23 sets, but they also lost as many sets 23, and Eastern lost 25 but won 25.  It is unclear to me why Southwest's record is better based on this, it seems tied to me.  If the USTA did consider them tied it would go to games lost and Southwest would get that too as the USTA ignores games won at this point where Eastern won 11 more games than the list, while Southwest lost 9 more than they won.  I would give the spot to Eastern, but the USTA gives it to Southwest.

So only one example of the USTA's broken tie-breakers getting the order wrong, and luckily it was for 8th vs 9th so no one cares, but at some point, like happened last year, the flawed tie-breakers will get the wrong team advancing to the semis again.

Note, that head-to-head isn't mentioned above as it only comes into play if the teams all played each other.  In this case, court records between teams that played were different, except for Texas and Intermountain, but MoValley didn't also play both teams so I don't think it was used.  But the team that won, Texas, ended up ahead of the team that lost, Intermountain.

But you could make the argument that that Texas and Southern, the only two teams to give two of the tied teams their losses, were the most deserving given their two wins each over 3-1 teams.  And given Texas' loss was to a good Midwest team and beat the top-seed Southern, Texas had a tough schedule and perhaps got a raw deal finishing 5th.