Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Analyzing 2019 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Section bump rates by level and gender - 4.0 men and women

Next in my series of posts analyzing the 2019 year-end ratings I continue breaking down the bump rates by level and gender.  I already looked at bump rates for each section by gender, bump rates by level nationally, and started the by level analysis with the 3.5 men and women.

Next up the 4.0 levels.  First the women.


What jumps out is there are a surprising number of sections that have more players bumped down than up.  Caribbean had more the twice as many bumped down than up, but Midwest had the highest percentage at nearly 8%.  Only 5 sections had more bumps up than down, Pacific Northwest the most at over 8%, and then Southwest, Northern, and Eastern.

Next the 4.0 men.


We see the general trend of Southern and Texas having a large number of bump ups continue, Southern nearly 18%, Texas nearly 15% bumped up.  Next closest is Florida and Intermountain.  Only Caribbean and Hawaii had significantly more bumps down than up.  PNW also did narrowly, and NorCal barely had more up than down but both very lost percentages.  It appears the USTA thought NorCal and PNW had fairly rated 4.0 men with such little movement.

Stay tuned, more to come.

3 comments:

  1. Thank you very much for doing this. Our little community of 4.0 men was pretty upset about a seemingly disproportionate number of bumps to 4.5 following a national championship. Certainly we expected almost everyone on the championship team to get bumped but there were players with .500 records and no post-season play (beyond districts) that got bumped as well.

    It is good to get this national perspective.

    Thanks

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  2. I am curious whether limiting the base to players that recorded a minimum number of matches (2 or 3 maybe) in 2019 would have any impact on the results. It's certainly possible that the "stagnant" population is proportionally consistent across sections but maybe not.

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    1. I already did that. I'm only looking at players with 2019 year-end ratings, so they had to have played the three matches required.

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