Monday, December 1, 2014

Initial observations from 2014 USTA League year-end ratings

USTA League year-end ratings are out and here are some initial observations.

There seems to be a definite upward bias with more players being bumped up than expected, and certainly a lot more bump ups than bump downs.  Some of these bump ups are happening in sections that did well at Nationals, but I'm hearing of bump ups in other sections too.

I don't know if there was any sort of rebalancing the levels or redefinition of levels/thresholds, but it seems like it as match results alone don't appear to support some of the bumps that have taken place.  And there being so many bump ups with so few bump downs seems to support that.

What are some of the strange bump ups or downs that you have seen?

12 comments:

  1. No surprise 3.0 texas national champ team had some double bumps, at least 3 were, they should be Dq and stripped of the championship due to this cheating

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    1. And which 3.0 team did you play on that feels so wronged?

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    2. I don't disagree that they didn't follow the spirit of the rules, but the rules as published were followed. As suspicious as it looks, you can't really prove anything so you can't very well take away any title.

      You don't have to like that it happened, but accept it and move on. With the bumps that are happening in the "power" sections, we may see a more competitive Nationals in 2015. It will be interesting to track.

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  2. I have never seen so many bump ups at my tennis club in a long time. Clearly, they have made a generalized sweep up in ratings. For example, we have one 3.0 player that lost 6 out of 10 matches...3 of which were 3.0 and barely won 3.5 matches that bumped. We also had a 2.5 get d/q'd in the spring....was bumped to 3.5 after the spring season. Now she is a 4.0....how could that be if she didn't play any more matches?

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    1. What section are you in? Some sections did get more of a sweep up than others it appears.

      Early start ratings don't necessarily equal year-end. The benchmark calculations and other manual modifications or extra bumps they do only happen at year-end.

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    2. These are year ratings, not early start ratings. We are in the southern section. I have had great seasons the past 3 years, with 2 losses among them with no bump up. In fact, very few people have been bumped at our club. This year, I would say half of those bumped up do not have records to back it up.....

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  3. Similar story as above, I had a 40yo player that recently picked up a racket, self-rate 3.0 for mixed. Joined my 3.5 40+ team this year, got dq'd to 3.5 mid-season which was probably legit, then got dq'd at Sectionals to 4.0. And now, he just got bumped to 4.5 without ever having played any USTA match from June through today, let alone a 4.0 match!!?? go figure.

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  4. I thought 2014 Nationals was competitive! Atleast for 3.5 40+ Men. Our team went 0-5 (lost 4 supers), 3-2, 5-0, 3-2 in Fight. Super lucky making it out of that. Semi's 4-1. Finals 4-1 won 2 supers. Probably 4 of the 5 teams in our flight could have won it all. Luck was with us. We had so many lucky things go our way. I guess we can add another one to it being the ratings sweep after 2014! :P

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    1. I think you are right, it was competitive, but there are different interpretations of that word. Close matches are good, but if the same sections end up getting to the semis and winning year after year while others hardly ever do, some are going to complain.

      So what seems to have happened this year is the sections that did well across divisions/levels have received the brunt of the bumps to try and level things out not just across the players that were at Nationals but those behind them vying to go next year.

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  5. Early start 4.0 (down from 4.5) who played four 4.5 sectional matches since early start ratings. Lost 0,0; 0,2; 0,0; won a default. Bumped to 5.0. Yikes.

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    1. Strange, would be interested to know details if you want to e-mail me: ratings@teravation.net

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  6. It appears to me the focus was on forcing the sectionals players to play up without much regard to regular season record. We have a player who is 30-3 in the last three years at 4.5 with no championship matches stay at 4.5 meanwhile there was a guy bumped up with a 5-14 regular season record, 0-3 at locals, and 3-2 in sectionals(with almost all matches played once the team was eliminated). In years past he and quite a few others would of never been bumped. While I know wins and losses don't tell the whole story, but a 90% win rate with that many matches should be worth more than a 33% win rate, especially considering they weren't even close to competing at sectionals. I think sectionals were overvalued incredibly, and quite a few players got bumped simply because of the team they played on.

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