The Pacific Northwest led the way with the most bumps up, nearly 14% of 4.0s were bumped up, but that section also had over 7% bumped down which was not the least by any stretch, so there was movement both directions.
Southern and Northern California were next and interestingly, NorCal had even more bump downs as a percentage than PNW. Texas was next with the 4th most bumps up.
These three sections did do well at 4.0 Nationals so it sort of makes sense. But Caribbean had a large number of bump ups overall but was well back at the 4.0 level with more bump downs than up.
I think this data suggests manual increases applied to sections regardless of the specific results at that NTRP level rather than to a higher weight given to benchmarking in the computer. Middle States performed better than either PNW or NorCal and arguably SoCal in 4.0 at nationals, and yet seems middle of the road here in terms of bumps. Do you think the high PNW and NorCal bump ups are mainly tied to computer benchmarking off 40+ 4.0 results? Because neither section placed top four in men's or women's 18+ 4.0. Or would you guess this was a manual adjustment like I'm now feeling.
ReplyDeleteI meant mid-atlantic, not middle states
DeleteWhat you're seeing is the usta's conclusion that PNW had a very high degree of players out of level. Oddly enough they were all some of the biggest complainers.
ReplyDeleteI agree, and I'm totally fine with the USTA concluding that, if it is in fact based on results (for instance 4.5 men in PNW where PNW won nationals). What I am not ok with is the USTA deciding, with little to no basis in results (at least at 4.0), that PNW is too strong and needs to be adjusted (and more so than sections that did MUCH better at 4.0), while being completely blind to the fact that mid-atlantic did very well at 4.0. More players bumped down than up in mid-atlantic at 4.0, where they placed top 4 three times? That just seems like arbitrary punishment.
DeleteI would agree. Sometimes it seems like it's just guilt by association.
DeleteMiddle States bumps were almost entirely concentrated within the nationals teams. The percentage overall is middle of the pack, but the 4.0 40+ nationals team had their entire starting lineup bumped even though they only won one match at nationals. The 18+ nationals team placed 3rd and also had a ton of bumps (which were all appropriate and expected...).
ReplyDelete