Day 1 Update: 18 & Over 5.0+ Women USTA League Nationals

Day one is complete for the 5.0+ women so lets take a look at how things have played out.

Below is each team with the simulation's current most likely record for each team, and what the most likely record was in the pre-event simulation.

Section	Current	Projected	Original
Texas	2-0	4-0	4-0
Pacific NW	2-0	4-0 ↑	3-1
NorCal	1-1	3-1 ↓	4-0
Florida	1-1	3-1 ↓	4-0
SoCal	2-0	3-1	3-1
MoValley	2-0	3-1 ↑	2-2
Mid-Atlantic	2-0	3-1 ↑	2-2
Midwest	1-1	2-2	2-2
Southern	1-1	1-3	1-3
New England	0-2	1-3 ↑	0-4
Eastern	0-2	1-3 ↓	2-2
Intermountain	0-2	1-3 ↓	2-2
Middle States	0-2	0-4	0-4
Southwest	0-2	0-4	0-4

The pre-event simulation predicted three undefeated teams and just a 2-way tie for 4th, but right now, it appears two teams will finish unbeaten and there will be a 5-way tie for the last two semi-final spots.  But there is a decent chance the tie grows to be a 6-way tie, so it could be interesting.

Update: See the recap and how the schedule strengths were a huge factor in who advanced to the semis.

It's time for USTA League Nationals, what's the weather report?

USTA League Nationals start tomorrow, and given the weather challenges with the venues last year and many of the same sites being in the rotation this year, that means we have to check the weather.

The 18 & Over 5.0+ men and women are in Orlando and while there is rain in the forecast for today, the weekend calls for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and a bit steamy some humidity and . highs around 90 degrees, but just a 20% chance of precipitation.  Hopefully that stays true and at worst they have a minor delay from a shower or two.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men and women are in Arlington, TX and the forecast there is great today and tomorrow, but the weekend calls for afternoon thunderstorms and mid to upper 80s with higher humidity.  Sounds like a decent chance of afternoon delays, but at that temperature things should hopefully dry quickly.

Lets hope any rain holds off and/or delays are short!

What if Nationals were in the desert Southwest?  Phoenix is great thru Saturday, upper 80s and 40% humidity, there there is a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm on Sunday, but perhaps it would come through after matches would be complete.  Indian Wells is a few degrees warmer but similar on Friday and Saturday but also has a chance of afternoon Thunderstorms on Sunday.

2018 USTA League Nationals start in two days - 18 & Over 4.0 and 5.0+

The wait is over, Nationals start this Friday October 5!

I for one am going to be very interested to see how the new format for Nationals works.  I've done a lot of writing on the subject and simulations to see how it may play out, but now we get to see what really happens and if there is turmoil and controversy or if everything goes smoothly.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men and women find themselves in Arlington, TX, a new site for Nationals this year.  It appears matches will be primarily at Arlington Tennis Center, but a few at University of Texas at Arlington.  If my simulation (women / men) and prediction (women / men) are right at all, the competition should be good.

The 18 & Over 5.0+ men and women will be in Orlando, FL at the National Campus.  I also did simulations (women / men) and predictions (women / men) and these it appears may not be quite as competitive, but with just 3 courts per team match, upsets are perhaps a little more likely to happen.

Stay tuned to this blog or follow on Facebook for news and updates as I'll try to write observations during the weekend and a summary after the champs are determined.

Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over 5.0+ women

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 (7 for 5.0+) average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Next, we'll look at the 18 & Over 5.0+ women that is coming up this weekend in Orlando, FL.  Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.

The most likely teams to make the semis are:

• Texas - 99%
• Northern California - 99%
• Southern California - 95%
• Florida - 89%

This is perhaps the most lopsided event at Nationals with a top-7 average range of 4.49 to 4.99, meaning the schedule you get is a huge influence.  In fact, only 2 of the top-4 teams are in the list above, two of the teams, including one of the 99%, are there due to really easy schedules.

The chances of these teams advancing is very close for the top-2, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Florida would be favored over Texas and SoCal over NorCal.  In the final Florida would be the pick.

Should one of the above teams falter, Pacific Northwest and Eastern would be the most likely to step up, Mid-Atlantic and Missouri are the dark horses.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over 5.0+ men

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Next, we'll look at the 18 & Over 5.0+ men that is coming up this weekend in Orlando, FL.  Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.

The most likely teams to make the semis are:

• Intermountain - 99%
• Pacific Northwest - 97%
• Northern California - 66%
• Midwest - 60%

Note that the top-2 percentages are really very high.  I am perhaps not allowing for enough variability in my simulations, but I'm going with this and we'll see how well it predicts.  Those top teams really are separated and happen to have easier schedules to boot.

Note also that these are not the top-4 rated teams, as schedule strengths are a factor and one of the above teams slips in to the semis without being one of the highest rated 4 due to an easier schedule.

The chances of these teams advancing is very close for the top-2, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Intermountain would be favored over Midwest and PNW over Northern Cal.  In the final Intermountain would be the narrow pick.

Should one of the above teams falter, Florida and Texas are not far back, Southern Cal is also dark horse along with Caribbean to find their way in if the stars align.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over 4.0 women

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Next, we'll look at the 18 & Over 4.0 women that is coming up this weekend in Arlington, TX.  Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.

The most likely teams to make the semis are:

• Hawaii - 93%
• New England - 92%
• Northern California - 85%
• Midwest - 82%

Note that these percentages are really very high.  I am perhaps not allowing for enough variability in my simulations, but I'm going with this and we'll see how well it predicts.

Note also that these are not the top-4 rated teams, as schedule strengths are a factor and two of the above teams slips in to the semis without being one of the highest rated 4 due to an easier schedule while two of the top-4 rated teams has a tougher schedules.

The chances of these teams advancing is very close for the top-2 and 3rd/4th, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Hawaii would be favored over Midwest and New England and Northern Cal would be a pick'em match, New England getting the nod for having the better chance of making the semis.  In the final Hawaii would be the pick.  This one will be interesting as Hawaii's ratings can sometimes be off a bit bit relative to other sections because they are, well, an island.

Should one of the above teams falter, Middle States, Florida, or Eastern are most likely to take advantage of it and advance, Southern Cal is also dark horse to find their way in if the stars align.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Update: Corrected a few percentages but the predictions stayed the same.

Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over 4.0 men

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

To start, we'll look at the 18 & Over 4.0 men that is coming up this weekend in Arlington, TX.  Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.

The most likely teams to make the semis are:

• Texas - 87%
• Middle States - 85%
• Florida - 82%
• Northern - 72%

Note that these percentages are pretty high.  I am perhaps not allowing for enough variability in my simulations, but I'm going with this and we'll see how well it predicts.

Note also that these are not the top-4 rated teams, as schedule strengths are a factor and one of the above teams slips in to the semis without being one of the highest rated 4 due to an easier schedule while one of the top-4 rated teams has a tougher schedule.

The chances of these teams advancing is very close for the top-3, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Northern would be favored over Texas and Florida over Middle States, and a pick'em match in the final, both teams rated the same.  But given that Northern has the tougher road to make the semis, the pick for the champ will go to Florida.

Should one of the above teams falter, Southern and Midwest are most likely to take advantage of it and advance, New England and Southern Cal are also dark horses to find their way in if the stars align.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Update: Corrected a few percentages, but the predictions did not change