Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed

It is that time of year!  We are into week 4 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

Here is the 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed.

Teams: 16

Chance of 3 undefeated: 6.4%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 0.5%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 78% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.06 / 3.89
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.01 / 3.92
Favorites: NorCal, Texas
Contenders: SoCal, Southwest, Hawaii, Midwest

Have a chance: Eastern, Florida, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, MOValley, New England, PNW

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 7-5

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 0

This appears to be an incredibly balanced and even event.  Never before do I recall there being eight teams that have a chance, and only two teams are not given a chance.  While the most common top-4 records are all 3-1, there are a whopping 10 teams with most likely records of 2-2.

As a result, there is very little chance of another disaster with undefeated teams being sent home with only a 6.4% chance of even three 4-0 teams.

Also, there is no teams that stands out as a big favorite, but instead five teams have 11.6% to 19.1% chance of winning it all, that group led by Texas.

But this is so close, anything could happen, especially with rain forecast and short sets being played.

What do you think?  Will Texas win it?